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Predictions graded

Norway3Denmark2

HT 2–1Thu 24 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions9–469%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 13–13On targetOn target 7–7CornersCorners 4–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 09:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Norway's 8-1 competitive record and 4.0 goals a game make them the likelier winner, but one clean sheet in nine leaves Denmark — 2.6 goals a game away from home — a genuine route in.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.67, both teams to score at 1.67 and Denmark to avoid defeat at 2.1 are the reviewed prices that hold up; Norway to win at 1.75 does not.

Context

Norway have scored in all nine competitive matches in the sample, so the attacking rate is backed up match by match. The other end is the softer part of the record: goals conceded in eight of the nine, including a 1-4 home defeat to France on 26 June 2026, mean an opponent that commits numbers forward can expect chances. Denmark's away scoring record makes that a realistic plan rather than a hopeful one.
- Competitive record 9 September 2025 to 5 July 2026: 8 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss in 9 matches
- 4.0 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game across those 9 matches
- 1 clean sheet in 9; both teams scored in 8 of 9
- Norway scored in all 9 competitive matches in the sample
Denmark kept clean sheets in three of those five away matches and averaged 2.6 goals scored, which is why their away form is the main counterweight to Norway's scoring record. The base is only five matches and runs from October 2024 to November 2025, so it is a modest sample rather than a current trend. Norway's five home matches in their own sample produced 4.8 goals a game, so the two records genuinely pull in opposite directions.
- 5 away competitive matches, 15 October 2024 to 18 November 2025: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss
- 2.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game in those 5 matches
- 3 clean sheets in 5 away matches
- Both teams scored in 2 of those 5 away matches
Norway have not won either of the two meetings in the record, and the 2024 game is the only one with goals in it. Both were friendlies played in Denmark, so they describe the fixture's recent history rather than this Nations League tie, and the 2020 goalless draw is a reminder that the pair can also cancel each other out.
- 8 June 2024 friendly played in Denmark: Denmark 3-1 Norway
- 31 May 2020 friendly played in Denmark: Denmark 0-0 Norway
That is the most recent competitive match in Denmark's record and the most one-sided performance in it, with the 11-2 corner count and the three shots allowed pointing to complete control of that game. A single match against weaker opposition does not carry straight over to a trip to Norway, and the same six-match run also includes a 2-4 away defeat to Scotland on 18 November 2025. Read together, they show a side capable of dominating one day and leaking goals the next.
- 26 March 2026, home to FYR Macedonia: Denmark 4-0, all four goals in the second half
- Shots 20-3 and shots on target 9-0
- Corners 11-2

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Norway's high-scoring form and home advantage give them the edge, though Denmark's away record is competitive.
- Norway overall competitive: 8W-0D-1L, 4.0 goals for, 1.33 against
- Norway home: 4W-0D-1L, 4.8 goals for
- Denmark away: 2W-2D-1L, 2.6 goals for, 1.2 against
- Denmark overall: 5W-4D-2L, 6 clean sheets in 11
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNorwayEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Norway start strongly at home and have the better first-half scoring record.
- Norway overall 1H: 1.44 goals for, 0.56 against
- Norway home 1H: 2.0 goals for, 0.6 against
- Denmark overall 1H: 0.91 goals for, 0.36 against
- Denmark away 1H: 1.2 goals for, 0.6 against
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonNorwayEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Norway score heavily after the break at home and have the stronger second-half record.
- Norway home 2H: 2.8 goals for, 1.0 against
- Norway overall 2H: 2.56 goals for, 0.78 against
- Denmark away 2H: 1.4 goals for, 0.6 against
- Denmark overall 2H: 1.27 goals for, 0.64 against
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostNorwayEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Norway's high-scoring form and home advantage give them the edge, though Denmark's away record is competitive. Denmark's solid defense and away scoring threat give them a real chance against Norway's leaky back line.
- Norway overall competitive: 8W-0D-1L, 4.0 goals for, 1.33 against
- Norway home: 4W-0D-1L, 4.8 goals for
- Denmark overall: 5W-4D-2L, 2.18 goals for, 1.0 against
- Denmark away: 2W-2D-1L, 2.6 goals for
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNorway or DenmarkEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Norway start strongly at home and have the better first-half scoring record. Both teams have tight first-half defensive numbers, so the opening period could be balanced.
- Norway overall 1H: 1.44 goals for, 0.56 against
- Norway home 1H: 2.0 goals for, 0.6 against
- Denmark overall 1H: 0.36 goals against
- Norway overall 1H: 0.56 goals against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonNorway or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams have consistently played matches with at least three goals, and their attacks are in good form.
- Norway recent 6: all 6 matches over 2.5 goals
- Denmark recent 6: all 6 matches over 2.5 goals
- Norway home totals average 6.4 goals
- Denmark away totals average 3.8 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Norway's defense regularly concedes and Denmark score away from home, making both teams finding the net likely.
- Norway overall both teams scored in 8 of 9
- Norway recent 6: both teams scored in all 6
- Norway home: both teams scored in 4 of 5
- Denmark away: scored in 4 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams are frequently involved in first-half goals, so an early goal is likely.
- Norway recent 6: 5 first halves had goals
- Denmark recent 6: 5 first halves had goals
- Norway home 1H total goals: 2.6
- Denmark away 1H total goals: 1.8
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Neither team has often conceded and scored in the first half of recent matches.
- Denmark recent 6: no first half with both scoring
- Norway recent 6: 2 first halves with both scoring
- Denmark overall 1H GA: 0.36
- Norway overall 1H GA: 0.56
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent second halves have usually produced at least two goals.
- Norway recent 6: 5 second halves over 1.5
- Denmark recent 6: 5 second halves over 1.5
- Norway home 2H total: 3.8 goals
- Denmark away 2H total: 2.0 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance75%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Norway's home matches average fewer corners, which could keep the total below 11.
- Norway home total corners: 7.4
- Norway overall total corners: 8.78
- Denmark away total corners: 9.6
- Denmark overall total corners: 12.18
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team's matches regularly produce 33 total shots, so the under is favored.
- Norway overall total shots: 26.0
- Denmark overall total shots: 27.18
- Norway home total shots: 27.4
- Denmark away total shots: 25.6
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 32.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target averages sit well below the line.
- Norway overall total SOT: 10.0
- Denmark overall total SOT: 9.27
- Norway home total SOT: 11.4
- Denmark away total SOT: 9.4
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 13.5Estimated chance82%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 1W

L3-1DenmarkvNorwayJun 8, 2024FRI

D0-0DenmarkvNorwayMay 31, 2020FRI

2 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Norway Relegation Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
2	Denmark Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Norway leads the leagueDenmark leads the leagueNorway in relegation zone

Recent Form

Norway

W2-1BrazilJul 5WOR

W2-1Ivory CoastJun 30WOR

W3-1SwedenJun 1FRI

D0-0SwitzerlandMar 31FRI

L1-2NetherlandsMar 27FRI

W4-1ItalyNov 16WOR

W4-1EstoniaNov 13WOR

D1-1New ZealandOct 14FRI

W5-0IsraelOct 11WOR

W11-1MoldovaSep 9WOR

W1-0FinlandSep 4FRI

Denmark

W2-1UkraineJun 7FRI

D0-0Congo DRJun 3FRI

W4-0FYR MacedoniaMar 26WOR

L2-4ScotlandNov 18WOR

D2-2BelarusNov 15WOR

W3-1GreeceOct 12WOR

W6-0BelarusOct 9WOR

W3-0GreeceSep 8WOR

D0-0ScotlandSep 5WOR

W5-0LithuaniaJun 10FRI

W2-1Northern IrelandJun 7FRI

W1-0PortugalMar 20UEF

D0-0SerbiaNov 18UEF

L1-2SpainNov 15UEF

D2-2SwitzerlandOct 15UEF

Squad & Injuries

Norway

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Denmark

34 available

Attackers7

Midfielders13

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Draw or Denmark

Yes

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Denmark

No

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Norway

Denmark

Squad & Injuries

Norway

Denmark