Netherlands1Germany1

HT 0–1Thu 24 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges2–529%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 22–10On targetOn target 10–2CornersCorners 12–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 09:46 · Europe/Bucharest

The Netherlands' unbeaten competitive home run meets a Germany side that has won seven of eleven but lost twice away.

Dutch home form makes them favourites, with the draw the sensible partner. Of the prices reviewed, the Netherlands to win at 2.38, the Netherlands to win or draw at 1.48, the Netherlands to be level or ahead at half-time at 1.36 and both teams to score: No at 2.5 all pay more than their chances imply; Over 2.5 goals at 1.5 does not.

Context

The Netherlands drew three of 11 competitive matches in the same window, two at home, so a level result is realistic even though it has not appeared in Germany's record. Germany's four away matches split two wins and two defeats, with one goal scored and one conceded per game, well below their overall 2.45. Four matches is a small sample, so the away split is a caution, not a settled pattern.
- Germany competitive record 4 June 2025 to 25 June 2026: 11 matches, 7 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses.
- Germany away split: 4 matches, 2 wins, 2 losses; 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.
- Germany scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches and kept 4 clean sheets.
They scored in all six of those home matches and did not concede a first-half goal in any of them, which is the strongest part of the Dutch case. Germany's away record is the opposite in scoring terms — one goal per away game — so the Dutch home attack meets the least productive part of Germany's recent form. The home sample is six matches and includes a 2-2 draw with Japan on 14 June 2026, so it is not a run of comfortable shutouts.
- Netherlands home competitive record 10 June 2025 to 20 June 2026: 6 matches, 4 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.
- Home goals for 4.0 per game and against 0.67; 3 clean sheets and scored in all 6 matches.
- Home first-half goals: 1.67 per game scored, 0.0 conceded.
It is the fixture's most recent reference point: Germany kept the Dutch out and won by a single goal, on German soil. That result sits against the open pattern of the other four listed meetings, all of which had both teams scoring, and against the Netherlands' current home record of four wins and two draws in six matches since June 2025. The head-to-head data runs from 2019 to 2024, so it describes older squads rather than current form.
- Head-to-head, 14 October 2024: Germany 1-0 Netherlands, UEFA Nations League.
- The five listed head-to-heads are dated 2019 to 2024; four of the five had both teams scoring.
It shows the fixture can produce a high-scoring Dutch win, with six goals in that game, but it was played nearly seven years before this one and the four meetings since have been tighter or level. The Netherlands' run of eight wins and three draws in tracked competitive matches has come against a different set of opponents. Treat the 2019 result as background on the fixture's range rather than a guide to this meeting.
- Head-to-head, 6 September 2019: Germany 2-4 Netherlands, Euro Championship.
- Meetings since: 29 March 2022 (1-1), 26 March 2024 (Germany 2-1), 10 September 2024 (2-2), 14 October 2024 (Germany 1-0).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.38
The read
Netherlands have been much stronger at home, scoring heavily while rarely conceding, which gives them the better chance.
- Netherlands competitive record: 8 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses; home split 4 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.
- Netherlands home scoring: 4.0 goals per game, conceding 0.67; overall 3.36 goals per game.
- Germany away split: 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses; 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.
- Last Nations League meeting in Germany finished 1-0 to Germany; the 2024 meeting in the Netherlands was 2-2.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNetherlandsEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.80
The read
Netherlands have started strongly at home and often lead by half-time.
- Netherlands home first-half goals for 1.67, against 0.0.
- Germany away first-half goals for 0.5, against 0.5.
- Netherlands overall first-half goals for 1.55, against 0.27.
- Germany overall first-half goals for 1.09, against 0.55.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostNetherlandsEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Netherlands have been stronger after half-time at home, scoring frequently in second halves.
- Netherlands home second-half goals for 2.33, against 0.67.
- Germany away second-half goals for 0.5, against 0.5.
- Netherlands overall second-half goals for 1.82, against 0.45.
- Germany overall second-half goals for 1.36, against 0.45.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonNetherlandsEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Netherlands have been much stronger at home, scoring heavily while rarely conceding, which gives them the better chance. Both recent Nations League meetings in the Netherlands were draws, and Netherlands have drawn several recent matches.
- Netherlands competitive record: 8 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses; home split 4 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.
- Netherlands home scoring: 4.0 goals per game, conceding 0.67; overall 3.36 goals per game.
- Netherlands have drawn 3 of 11 competitive matches, including 2 of 6 at home.
- Germany have not drawn any of their 11 tracked competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNetherlands or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Netherlands have started strongly at home and often lead by half-time. Netherlands rarely trail at half-time at home, and Germany's away first halves have been low-scoring.
- Netherlands home first-half goals for 1.67, against 0.0.
- Germany away first-half goals for 0.5, against 0.5.
- Netherlands home first-half goals against 0.0, so they rarely trail at the break.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostNetherlands or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Netherlands home games have produced goals at both ends, and recent meetings between these teams have been open.
- Netherlands home matches average 4.67 total goals (4.0 for, 0.67 against).
- Germany away matches average 2.0 total goals (1.0 for, 1.0 against).
- Netherlands overall matches average 4.09 total goals; Germany overall 3.45.
- Three of the last five head-to-head meetings went over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have enough attacking quality, and recent meetings have often seen both score.
- Netherlands both teams scored in 6 of 11 competitive matches, 3 of 6 at home.
- Germany both teams scored in 5 of 11 competitive matches, 1 of 4 away.
- Four of the last five head-to-head meetings had both teams scoring.
- Germany have scored in 3 of 4 away matches; Netherlands have conceded in 3 of 6 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Netherlands have scored at least twice in most home matches and face a Germany side that concedes away.
- Netherlands home goals for average 4.0; scored in all 6 home matches tracked.
- Germany away goals against average 1.0, with 2 clean sheets in 4 away matches.
- Netherlands overall scored in all 11 competitive matches.
- Recent Netherlands home wins include 5-1, 4-0 and 4-0.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostNetherlands over 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Germany's away matches have averaged one goal, and Netherlands' home defence has been solid.
- Germany away goals for average 1.0, with 3 goals in 4 away matches.
- Netherlands home goals against average 0.67, with 3 clean sheets in 6 home matches.
- Germany overall goals for 2.45, but away output is lower.
- Germany's most recent away match produced one goal in a 2-1 loss to Ecuador.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGermany under 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Both teams have usually produced at least one first-half goal in recent matches.
- Netherlands home first-half goals for 1.67, against 0.0.
- Germany away first-half goals for 0.5, against 0.5.
- Netherlands overall first-half goals for 1.55; Germany overall 1.09.
- First-half goals have appeared in most recent matches for both teams.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Netherlands' home second halves have produced three total goals on average, and Germany also score after the break.
- Netherlands home second-half total average 3.0 goals (2.33 for, 0.67 against).
- Germany away second-half total average 1.0 goal (0.5 for, 0.5 against).
- Netherlands overall second-half total 2.27; Germany overall 1.82.
- Both teams have scored second-half goals in recent matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two teams' home and away corner rates combine to just above the threshold.
- Netherlands home corners 6.17, opponent corners 3.17.
- Germany away corners 4.75, opponent corners 4.0.
- Combined home and away generated corners average 10.92.
- Netherlands overall corners 5.91, opponent 2.55; Germany overall 5.91, opponent 3.45.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 10.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Germany's away shot volume is lower than their overall average, and the combined home and away rate is below the threshold.
- Netherlands home shots 16.33, opponent shots 8.83.
- Germany away shots 12.5, opponent shots 8.5.
- Combined home and away generated shots average 28.83.
- Netherlands overall shots 16.27, opponent 8.27; Germany overall 16.82, opponent 8.45.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 33.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Germany's away shots-on-target average is only 4.0, keeping the combined rate below the threshold.
- Netherlands home shots on target 6.83, opponent 3.17.
- Germany away shots on target 4.0, opponent 3.0.
- Combined home and away generated shots on target average 10.83.
- Netherlands overall SOT 6.55, opponent 3.0; Germany overall 6.36, opponent 3.09.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 12.5Estimated chance64%

Prediction history

Netherlands: 3/5 recent goals projections matched

3 of 5 comparable goals projections involving Netherlands matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Netherlands5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jun·World Cup 2026

Netherlands1-1 Morocco