Africa Cup of Nations QualificationFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Mauritania3Central African Republic1

HT 1–0Thu 24 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 19–15On targetOn target 8–5CornersCorners 3–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 13:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Mauritania have won all four meetings with Central African Republic and kept six clean sheets in nine competitive matches, so a low-scoring Mauritania win or draw is the likeliest shape.

Three reviewed prices offer something: both teams to score — No at 1.55, fewer than three goals at 1.53 and a Central African Republic win at 5.25. Mauritania to win at 1.70 and Mauritania to win or draw at 1.17 do not.

Context

The latest meeting was a 1-0 Mauritania win in the African Nations Championship on 9 August 2025, and the June 2025 friendly finished 2-1 their way. Only that friendly produced a Central African Republic goal, so the series has been one-sided in result even when the scoreline was close. It is still a four-match sample stretching back to 2019 across different competitions, which limits how much weight it carries for this qualifier.
- 9 August 2025, African Nations Championship: Central African Republic 0-1 Mauritania.
- 6 June 2025, friendly: Mauritania 2-1 Central African Republic.
- 30 March 2021, Africa Cup of Nations qualification: Central African Republic 0-1 Mauritania.
- 19 November 2019, Africa Cup of Nations qualification: Mauritania 2-0 Central African Republic.
The record is one win, two draws and seven defeats, with six goals scored in the ten matches and half of them coming in the single 3-2 win at Chad on 12 October 2025, where they led 2-0 at half-time. The scoring rate is as much of a problem as the results: they were shut out repeatedly across the same window. That away win is the counterpoint — it shows the side can still produce a scoring afternoon on the road, even against a defence as tight as Mauritania's.
- Competitive record 19 March – 12 October 2025: 10 matches, 1 win, 2 draws, 7 losses, 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per match.
- Their only win was 3-2 away at Chad on 12 October 2025 in World Cup qualifying, after leading 2-0 at half-time.
- Three of the six goals scored across that ten-match window came in the Chad match.
The clean sheets come with a thin attack: three goals scored in those five home matches, the same number they conceded. Their most recent listed home outing was a 0-2 Arab Cup defeat to Kuwait on 25 November 2025, which accounts for two of the three goals they let in at home in the sample. That combination of a hard-to-break-down defence and a low-scoring attack is the pattern behind the low goal expectations around this fixture.
- Home record 6 August – 25 November 2025: 5 competitive matches, 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 3 goals scored and 3 conceded, with 3 clean sheets.
- Most recent listed home match: a 0-2 Arab Cup defeat to Kuwait on 25 November 2025.
- Also at home in the window: a 2-0 win over Togo on 5 September 2025 and a 0-0 draw with South Sudan on 9 September 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mauritania's dominant head-to-head record and solid home defense give them a clear edge over a CAR side that has lost seven of ten competitive matches.
- Mauritania won all four recent H2H meetings, including 1-0 away in August 2025 and 2-1 at home in June 2025.
- Mauritania competitive record: 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses, with 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Central African Republic competitive record: 1 win, 2 draws, 7 losses, conceding 2.2 goals per game.
- Mauritania home record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, conceding 0.6 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMauritaniaEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into the break level, with low first-half scoring.
- Mauritania have been level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- CAR have been level at half-time in 2 of their last 6.
- Mauritania home first half goals for and against both average 0.4.
- CAR away first half goals for 0.75 and against 0.5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves are often level, especially with Mauritania's low scoring.
- Mauritania have drawn the second half in 4 of their last 6.
- CAR have drawn the second half in 2 of their last 6.
- Mauritania home second half goals for and against both average 0.2.
- CAR away second half goals for 0.5, against 2.0.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Mauritania's dominant head-to-head record and solid home defense give them a clear edge over a CAR side that has lost seven of ten competitive matches. Both teams struggle to score, making a tight, low-scoring draw a plausible outcome.
- Mauritania won all four recent H2H meetings, including 1-0 away in August 2025 and 2-1 at home in June 2025.
- Mauritania competitive record: 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses, with 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Mauritania have drawn 3 of 9 competitive matches, including two 0-0 draws in their last four.
- CAR have drawn 2 of 10 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMauritania or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mauritania's home advantage and CAR's tendency to concede early give them a chance to lead at half-time. Both teams often go into the break level, with low first-half scoring.
- Mauritania have led at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches.
- CAR have trailed at half-time in 4 of their last 6.
- Mauritania have been level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- CAR have been level at half-time in 2 of their last 6.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostMauritania or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals4 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Low scoring rates for both teams point to under 2.5 goals.
- H2H totals in the last four: 1, 3, 1, 2 goals; three were under 2.5.
- Mauritania average 0.44 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per competitive match.
- CAR average 0.6 scored and 2.2 conceded per competitive match.
- Mauritania have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both teams struggle to score, so at least one side is likely to be shut out.
- Mauritania have failed to score in 6 of 9 competitive matches.
- CAR have failed to score in 8 of 10 competitive matches.
- Both teams scored in only 1 of the last 4 H2H meetings.
- Mauritania have kept 6 clean sheets in 9 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mauritania's attack is very low-scoring, making over 1.5 unlikely.
- Mauritania scored 4 goals in 9 competitive matches.
- Mauritania home: 3 goals in 5 matches (0.6 per game).
- Mauritania scored 2+ goals in only 1 of their last 9 competitive matches.
- Against CAR in the last meeting, Mauritania won 1-0.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostMauritania under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CAR's scoring is sporadic and Mauritania's home defense is solid, so over 1.5 is unlikely.
- CAR scored 6 goals in 10 competitive matches (0.6 per game).
- CAR have scored in only 1 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- CAR away: 5 goals in 4 matches, but 3 came in one game at Chad.
- Mauritania home: conceded 3 goals in 5 matches (0.6 per game).
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCentral African Republic under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mauritania's strong defensive record and CAR's poor scoring make a home clean sheet likely.
- Mauritania recorded 6 clean sheets in 9 competitive matches.
- Mauritania home: 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- CAR have failed to score in 8 of 10 competitive matches.
- CAR have scored in only 1 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCentral African Republic not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CAR's away defense is very poor, so Mauritania are likely to score.
- CAR have kept 0 clean sheets in 4 away matches.
- CAR concede 2.5 goals per away match.
- Mauritania have scored in 3 of 9 competitive matches, including 2-0 vs Togo.
- CAR conceded 5 to Ghana and 2 to Madagascar recently.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMauritania to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A Mauritania win without conceding is plausible but not the most likely outcome given their low scoring and CAR's occasional away goals.
- Mauritania have won only 3 of 9 competitive matches.
- CAR scored 3 away at Chad.
- Mauritania conceded 4 to Senegal and 2 to Kuwait.
- Mauritania's last win was 2-0 vs Togo, but they also have 0-0 draws.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Both teams are involved in first halves with goals more often than not.
- Mauritania's last 6 matches: first-half goals in 4 games.
- CAR's last 6 matches: first-half goals in 4 games.
- Mauritania home first half total goals average 0.8.
- CAR away first half total goals average 1.25.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving these teams often stay under 1.5 goals.
- Mauritania have had 0 second-half goals in 4 of their last 6.
- CAR have had 0 second-half goals in 2 of their last 6.
- Mauritania home second half total goals average 0.4.
- CAR away second half total goals average 2.5, but high variance.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 0W

W0-1Central African RepublicvMauritaniaAug 9, 2025AFR

W2-1MauritaniavCentral African RepublicJun 6, 2025FRI

W0-1Central African RepublicvMauritaniaMar 30, 2021AFR

W2-0MauritaniavCentral African RepublicNov 19, 2019AFR

Mauritania unbeaten in 4 meetingsMauritania: 3 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Mauritania

W1-0NigerJun 8FRI

D1-1AngolaJun 5FRI

L1-2ArgentinaMar 27FRI

L0-2KuwaitNov 25ARA

L0-1LibyaNov 15FRI

D1-1TunisiaNov 12FRI

L0-4SenegalOct 14WOR

D0-0SudanOct 10WOR

D0-0South SudanSep 9WOR

W2-0TogoSep 5WOR

W1-0Burkina FasoAug 13AFR

W1-0Central African RepublicAug 9AFR

L0-1TanzaniaAug 6AFR

D0-0MadagascarAug 3AFR

D0-0BurundiJun 10FRI

Central African Republic

L0-3AngolaJun 9FRI

D1-1TogoJun 5FRI

W3-2ChadOct 12WOR

L0-5GhanaOct 8WOR

L0-2ComorosSep 7WOR

L0-2MadagascarSep 4WOR

D0-0TanzaniaAug 16AFR

L0-2MadagascarAug 13AFR

L0-1MauritaniaAug 9AFR

L2-4Burkina FasoAug 6AFR

D1-1GuineaJul 27FRI

D0-0NigerJul 24FRI

L1-2MauritaniaJun 6FRI

D0-0MaliMar 24WOR

L1-4MadagascarMar 19WOR

Squad & Injuries

Mauritania

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Central African Republic

20 available

Attackers5

Midfielders5

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Central African Republic

Under 2.5

Mauritania or Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Mauritania

Central African Republic

Squad & Injuries

Mauritania

Central African Republic