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Predictions graded

Liechtenstein0Lithuania2

HT 0–0Thu 24 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions12–380%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 27%–73%ShotsShots 4–16On targetOn target 0–7CornersCorners 0–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 09:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Two sides with almost nothing to show from their competitive records meet in the Nations League.

Lithuania are the likelier winners, but a level game at full time or at half-time is realistic, and the draw at 4.75 plus the half-time draw at 2.38 both offer something. Under 2.5 goals at 1.70 is about right, while the 1.38 quotes on both teams scoring 'No' and on a first-half goal ask for more than the record supports.

Context

Liechtenstein's competitive record in this window is one win and ten defeats in 11 matches, and the Belgium fixture is the widest margin in it.
The 0-7 defeat on 18 November 2025 is the clearest picture of how quickly a Liechtenstein match can get away from them, although the opposition there was far above this level. Lithuania do not carry that kind of attacking weight — 0.64 goals per competitive match and two goals in seven away games — so this reads as a warning about the floor of Liechtenstein's results rather than a likely scoreline here.
- 18 November 2025, World Cup qualification away to Belgium: Liechtenstein lost 0-7, recording two shots and one on target to Belgium's 23 shots and 13 on target
- Liechtenstein took no corners in that match while Belgium took 15
Lithuania have scored four goals across their six most recent tracked matches, and half of them came in one first half against the Netherlands.
That 7 September 2025 home game shows Lithuania can start quickly even against a top side: they reached the break at 2-2 before conceding again and losing 2-3. In the other five matches of that run they scored one goal or none, and they have scored twice in seven away competitive matches, so an early goal is possible without being their normal pattern.
- 7 September 2025, World Cup qualification at home to the Netherlands: Lithuania were level 2-2 at half-time and lost 2-3, with four shots and three on target to the Netherlands' 14 shots and seven on target
- Two of Lithuania's four goals in their six most recent tracked matches came in that first half
Liechtenstein's tracked matches are played almost entirely in their own half of the pitch.
The nine competitive matches carrying corner data run from 18 November 2024 to 29 March 2026, and the 1.0 taken against 8.9 conceded per match fits with the same nine games showing 3.6 shots to their opponents' 20.3. That describes a side that spends nearly the whole match without the ball, which shapes where corners and attempts build up. Lithuania's away numbers are far less dominant, so the corner volume in this fixture would come mainly from one end rather than from an end-to-end game.
- Nine tracked competitive matches (18 November 2024 to 29 March 2026): Liechtenstein average 1.0 corner and 8.9 corners conceded per match
- In the same nine matches they average 3.6 shots to their opponents' 20.3

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lithuania have held their own against a far stronger qualifying group and should dominate possession against a side that almost never scores.
- Liechtenstein competitive record: 1 win, 0 draws, 10 defeats in 11 matches, 0.27 goals scored and 3.45 conceded per game
- Liechtenstein home split: 0 wins in 5, 0.2 scored and 3.0 conceded per game
- Lithuania competitive record: 0.64 scored and 1.73 conceded per game in 11 matches
- Lithuania away split: 0 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats, 0.29 scored and 1.57 conceded per game
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLithuaniaEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.38
The read
Both teams start slowly and Liechtenstein almost never score before the break, so a level first half is the single most likely result.
- Liechtenstein score 0.09 and concede 1.27 first-half goals per match
- Lithuania score 0.36 and concede 0.73 first-half goals per match
- Liechtenstein have scored once in eleven first halves
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Liechtenstein fade badly after the break and concede more than two second-half goals per game on average.
- Liechtenstein concede 2.18 second-half goals per competitive match
- Liechtenstein score 0.18 second-half goals per match
- Lithuania concede 1.0 second-half goals per match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonLithuaniaEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lithuania have held their own against a far stronger qualifying group and should dominate possession against a side that almost never scores. Two low-scoring sides with long winless runs make a tight, level game a realistic outcome.
- Liechtenstein competitive record: 1 win, 0 draws, 10 defeats in 11 matches, 0.27 goals scored and 3.45 conceded per game
- Liechtenstein home split: 0 wins in 5, 0.2 scored and 3.0 conceded per game
- Liechtenstein have 1 win, 0 draws and 10 defeats in 11 competitive matches
- Lithuania have 0 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats in 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or LithuaniaEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams start slowly and Liechtenstein almost never score before the break, so a level first half is the single most likely result. Liechtenstein concede regularly before half-time and Lithuania have shown they can score in that window.
- Liechtenstein score 0.09 and concede 1.27 first-half goals per match
- Lithuania score 0.36 and concede 0.73 first-half goals per match
- Lithuania scored three first-half goals in their last six matches
- Liechtenstein concede 1.27 first-half goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or LithuaniaEstimated chance88%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Lithuania's away attack is very limited and Liechtenstein rarely score, pointing to a total below three.
- Lithuania away matches average 1.86 total goals (0.29 for, 1.57 against)
- Liechtenstein home matches average 0.2 scored and 3.0 conceded
- Lithuania scored twice in seven away competitive matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Liechtenstein's scoring rate is so low that at least one side finishing without a goal is the likelier outcome.
- Liechtenstein average 0.27 goals per competitive match and 0.2 at home
- Liechtenstein failed to score in nine of their last eleven competitive matches
- Lithuania's away matches average 1.57 goals conceded
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance66%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Liechtenstein have not produced two goals in any tracked match, making a low home total the strong expectation.
- Liechtenstein have scored one goal in five tracked home matches
- Liechtenstein average 0.27 goals across 11 competitive matches
- Liechtenstein have never scored twice in the tracked window
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonLiechtenstein under 1.5Estimated chance91%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lithuania's away scoring output is thin, so keeping them below two goals is the more likely case.
- Lithuania scored two goals in seven away competitive matches (0.29 per game)
- Lithuania scored at most one goal in five of their last six matches
- Liechtenstein concede 3.0 goals per home match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostLithuania under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Liechtenstein's attack has been almost entirely shut down this window, so a Lithuania clean sheet is the likelier single outcome.
- Liechtenstein failed to score in nine of their last eleven competitive matches
- Liechtenstein average 0.27 goals per competitive match
- Liechtenstein managed one goal in five home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLiechtenstein not to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Liechtenstein's habit of conceding before the break makes a first-half goal the more likely outcome.
- Liechtenstein concede 1.27 first-half goals per match
- Lithuania concede 0.73 and score 0.36 first-half goals per match
- Only one of eleven Liechtenstein first halves was scoreless through their own goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score very little after the interval, so fewer than two second-half goals is the likelier case.
- Lithuania scored 0.27 second-half goals per competitive match
- Liechtenstein scored 0.18 second-half goals per match
- Lithuania's second-half scoring in the last six matches came in two games
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches produce corners in volume, with Liechtenstein's opponents piling them up.
- Liechtenstein take 1 corner and concede 8.9 per competitive match
- Liechtenstein home matches: 1.2 corners for, 7.4 against
- Lithuania away matches: 1.8 corners for, 5.3 against
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches are shot-heavy, mostly caused by the volume their opponents generate.
- Liechtenstein home matches: 4.8 shots for, 18.2 against
- Lithuania away matches: 9.3 shots for, 14.0 against
- Liechtenstein's opponents average 20.3 shots per competitive match
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 12.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Opponents regularly put six or more shots on target against Liechtenstein, pushing the combined figure past five.
- Liechtenstein home matches: 1.2 shots on target for, 6.8 against
- Lithuania away matches: 2.7 shots on target for, 5.2 against
- Liechtenstein concede 8.4 shots on target per competitive match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance86%

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Liechtenstein	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
1	Lithuania Promotion	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Liechtenstein leads the leagueLithuania leads the league

Recent Form

Liechtenstein

L0-2CyprusJun 7FRI

L0-2AndorraJun 4FRI

L1-4ArubaMar 29FIF

W1-0TanzaniaMar 26FIF

L0-7BelgiumNov 18WOR

L0-1WalesNov 15WOR

L1-2MontenegroOct 13FRI

L0-4KazakhstanOct 10WOR

L0-5FYR MacedoniaSep 7WOR

L0-6BelgiumSep 4WOR

L0-4ScotlandJun 9FRI

L0-3WalesJun 6WOR

L0-2KazakhstanMar 25WOR

L0-3FYR MacedoniaMar 22WOR

L1-3San MarinoNov 18UEF

Lithuania

L0-1EstoniaJun 9BAL

L0-2GeorgiaMar 29FRI

W2-0MoldovaMar 26FRI

L0-4NetherlandsNov 17WOR

D0-0IsraelNov 13FRI

L0-2PolandOct 12WOR

L1-2FinlandOct 9WOR

L2-3NetherlandsSep 7WOR

D1-1MaltaSep 4WOR

L0-5DenmarkJun 10FRI

D0-0MaltaJun 7WOR

D2-2FinlandMar 24WOR

L0-1PolandMar 21WOR

L0-1KosovoNov 18UEF

L1-2CyprusNov 15UEF

Squad & Injuries

Liechtenstein

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Lithuania

25 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 7 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

League Table

Recent Form

Liechtenstein

Lithuania

Squad & Injuries

Liechtenstein

Lithuania