Africa Cup of Nations QualificationFull time

Predictions graded

Libya2Botswana2

HT 0–2Thu 24 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 70%–30%ShotsShots 24–6On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 9–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 13:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Libya have not lost at home in this window but have won only one of five there, and Botswana arrive without an away win and with very little goal threat, so a narrow Libya win or a draw is the likeliest shape.

The 1.62 on a Libya win asks more than that home record supports and the 1.53 on under 2.5 goals offers little; the one price that offers something is 2.4 on both teams to score.

Context

Libya's home record is built on avoiding defeat rather than on winning matches.
An unbeaten home run sounds stronger than it is: four draws in five means Libya have rarely turned home advantage into three points, and two clean sheets in those five games shows the games stayed close. That points to a tight scoreline rather than a comfortable home win.
- Libya home competitive window, 2024-09-04 to 2025-10-08: five matches, 1W 4D 0L
- 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per home match in that window
- Two clean sheets in the five home matches
Botswana travel as the side that has not won on the road anywhere in the recorded window.
That winless away run is the clearest reason Libya are favoured, but three of the seven were drawn and Botswana averaged 0.57 goals per away game, so their likeliest route to anything here is a tight, low-scoring match rather than an open one.
- Botswana away competitive window, 2024-11-19 to 2025-12-27: seven matches, 0W 3D 4L
- 0.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per away match
- One clean sheet in those seven away matches
Libya are the hosts this time, the position from which the only two recorded results in this series were won.
A two-match sample cannot predict a third meeting, but it lines up with the wider records: Libya have drawn four of five at home and Botswana have not won any of seven away matches. A narrow margin either way, or a level game, is the shape this fixture has produced.
- 2022-06-01: Libya 1-0 Botswana, Africa Cup of Nations qualifying
- 2023-06-17: Botswana 1-0 Libya, Africa Cup of Nations qualifying
- Two recorded head-to-head meetings, both decided by one goal to the home side
Libya's home fixtures have mostly been tight, which makes that October 2025 scoreline the clear exception.
One match is not a trend, but it shows Libya's home games can open up against a side willing to attack. It is the main counterweight to the low-total pattern in their other listed home fixtures, a 2-0 win over Eswatini and a 1-1 draw with Angola.
- 2025-10-08: Libya 3-3 Cape Verde Islands, World Cup qualifying, played at home
- Half-time 2-1 to Libya; second half 1-2
- One of five matches in Libya's home window, and the highest-scoring

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.09fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 91.7%

−6.7ppshort

Botswana's early scoring is rare and Libya's home first-half defence is the strongest part of their record.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.48fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 67.6%

−1.6ppshort

First-half goals appear in most of both teams' recent matches, especially Libya's home games.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.62
The read
Libya are unbeaten at home and face an opponent that has not won away in the window and has barely scored in recent months.
- Libya at home in the window: 1W 4D 0L, 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game
- Botswana away: 0W 3D 4L, 0.57 scored and 1.71 conceded per game
- Botswana's last six competitive matches: 2 scored, 12 conceded, one draw and five defeats
- Both previous meetings ended 1-0 to the home side
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLibyaEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half output is limited and Libya's home games have mostly ended level overall.
- Libya score 0.4 and concede 0.8 second-half goals per home game
- Botswana score 0.0 and concede 0.71 second-half goals away
- Libya drew 4 of 5 home matches in the window
- Second-half totals are lower than first-half totals for both sides
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Libya are unbeaten at home and face an opponent that has not won away in the window and has barely scored in recent months. Libya's home record is built on draws and neither side scores freely, so a tight single-goal or level game is plausible.
- Libya at home in the window: 1W 4D 0L, 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game
- Botswana away: 0W 3D 4L, 0.57 scored and 1.71 conceded per game
- Libya drew 4 of 5 home competitive matches in the window
- Libya average 0.92 goals scored per competitive match overall
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLibya or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Libya's home first halves have been their strongest phase, while Botswana concede early away. Both teams' first-half output is low, so a level opening period is as likely as a Libya lead.
- Libya score 1.0 first-half goal per home game and concede 0.2
- Libya led 2-0 at half-time against Eswatini and 2-1 against Cape Verde at home
- Libya's first-half goals against average is 0.2 at home
- Botswana's away first-half scoring average is 0.57
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostLibya or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals4 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Neither side's matches have been high-scoring, and the head-to-head history is a pair of 1-0 results.
- Libya competitive matches average 1.92 total goals (0.92 for, 1.0 against)
- Libya home games average 2.4 total goals
- Botswana away games average 2.28 total goals
- Both head-to-head meetings produced one goal
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Botswana's away scoring rate is very low and Libya have kept clean sheets in a fair share of their matches.
- Libya kept 5 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches, 2 in 5 at home
- Botswana failed to score in 4 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Botswana score 0.57 per away game
- Libya scored in 5 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Libya's home scoring is modest and they rarely run up multi-goal totals against organised opponents.
- Libya score 1.4 per home game in the window
- Libya scored once in each of their last two home competitive matches against Cape Verde and Angola
- Libya average 0.92 goals per competitive match overall
- Botswana concede 1.71 per away game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostLibya under 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Botswana have struggled badly for goals away from home and rarely manage more than one.
- Botswana score 0.57 per away game in the window
- Botswana scored 3 goals in 7 away matches
- Botswana failed to score in 4 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Libya kept 2 clean sheets in 5 home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBotswana under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Libya's home defence has been beaten in a majority of their home matches, so a Botswana goal is likely enough to prevent a clean sheet.
- Libya conceded in 3 of 5 home competitive matches
- Libya concede 1.0 per home game
- Botswana scored in 3 of 7 away matches
- Both teams scored in 6 of Botswana's 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBotswana to scoreEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Botswana concede regularly away and Libya have found the net in five of their last six matches.
- Botswana kept 1 clean sheet in 7 away matches
- Botswana conceded 12 goals in their last six competitive matches
- Libya scored in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Libya score 1.4 per home game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLibya to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
First-half goals appear in most of both teams' recent matches, especially Libya's home games.
- Libya home first halves average 1.2 total goals (1.0 for, 0.2 against)
- Botswana away first halves average 1.57 total goals (0.57 for, 1.0 against)
- Libya scored first-half goals in two of their last three home matches
- Botswana conceded a first-half goal in four of their last five competitive matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.09
The read
Botswana's early scoring is rare and Libya's home first-half defence is the strongest part of their record.
- Libya concede 0.2 first-half goals per home game
- Botswana average 0.57 first-half goals away
- Botswana failed to score before half-time in four of their last six matches
- Libya's home first-half goals against average is 0.2
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is low for both teams, particularly Botswana away from home.
- Libya home second halves average 1.2 total goals (0.4 for, 0.8 against)
- Botswana away second halves average 0.71 total goals (0.0 for, 0.71 against)
- Botswana have not scored a second-half goal away in the window
- Libya's recent matches produced few second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card counts in the available samples sit below five per match on average.
- Libya average 2.0 yellow cards in the 3 matches with card data
- Botswana average 2.0 yellow cards in 5 matches with card data
- Libya's opponents averaged 0.67 yellow cards
- Botswana's opponents averaged 1.0 yellow card
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 1W

L1-0BotswanavLibyaJun 17, 2023AFR

W1-0LibyavBotswanaJun 1, 2022AFR

1 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Libya

D2-2LiberiaMar 31FRI

D0-0NigerMar 27FRI

W1-0MauritaniaNov 15FRI

D0-0MauritiusOct 13WOR

D3-3Cape Verde IslandsOct 8WOR

W2-0EswatiniSep 8WOR

W1-0AngolaSep 4WOR

L1-3CameroonMar 25WOR

D1-1AngolaMar 20WOR

D0-0BeninNov 18AFR

W1-0RwandaNov 14AFR

L0-1NigeriaOct 11AFR

L1-2BeninSep 10AFR

D1-1RwandaSep 4AFR

L0-1Cape Verde IslandsJun 11WOR

Botswana

W1-0MalawiMar 31FRI

L0-3ZimbabweMar 28FRI

L0-3Congo DRDec 30AFR

L0-1BeninDec 27AFR

L0-3SenegalDec 23AFR

D2-2GuineaOct 14WOR

L0-1UgandaOct 9WOR

L0-2MozambiqueSep 8WOR

L1-3AlgeriaSep 4WOR

D3-3ZambiaJun 11COS

D0-0ComorosJun 9COS

W2-0SomaliaMar 25WOR

L1-3AlgeriaMar 21WOR

D1-1EgyptNov 19AFR

D1-1MauritaniaNov 15AFR

Squad & Injuries

Libya

18 available

Attackers4

Midfielders7

Defenders5

Goalkeeper2

Botswana

16 available

Attackers6

Midfielders5

Defenders3

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Under 2.5

Libya

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 9 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Libya

Botswana

Squad & Injuries

Libya

Botswana