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Predictions graded

Kosovo1Republic Of Ireland0

HT 0–0Thu 24 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions11–379%

Edges6–275%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 22–3On targetOn target 8–1CornersCorners 1–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 09:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Kosovo's home defence meets an Ireland away record with no clean sheet in five in this Nations League tie, and a narrow home win is the likeliest single result.

At 2.40 Kosovo ask for more than that record justifies, so the match-winner prices are ones to leave. Two quotes do offer something: total corners under 7.5 at 2.5, and over 2.5 goals at 2.25.

Context

Kosovo's home record since November 2024 rests on defence: only three goals conceded in six competitive home matches, with three clean sheets.
That defensive base is why the home side starts as a marginal favourite, though the single defeat in the set — 0-1 to Türkiye on 31 March 2026 — shows the record has been broken at home. Kosovo's four goals scored in those six matches is the other half of the picture: tight games, rarely comfortable ones.
- Six competitive home matches between 18 November 2024 and 31 March 2026: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat.
- Three goals conceded and three clean sheets across those six home matches — 0.5 conceded per game.
- Four goals scored in the same six home matches, an average of 1.0 per game.
Ireland's away record is defined by what they concede — 2.2 goals per away match — rather than what they score.
Across five competitive away matches from November 2024 to November 2025, Ireland kept no clean sheet and scored only three goals, which is why Kosovo's home defence shapes the tie. The same window includes a 3-2 win in Hungary in November 2025, so the away record is not uniformly bleak.
- Five competitive away matches between 17 November 2024 and 16 November 2025: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 defeats.
- Three goals scored and five conceded across those five away matches — 2.2 conceded per game — with no clean sheet.
- Ireland won 1.4 corners per away match while their opponents averaged 6.4 in the same five games.
Kosovo's 4-3 win in Slovakia on 26 March 2026 is the most open game in their recent record.
Slovakia outshot Kosovo 20-9 and still lost, so the result shows Kosovo can win a match without controlling it. It stands apart from their home profile and is a caution against treating their low-scoring home games as a firm guide for this one.
- 26 March 2026: Kosovo won 4-3 away to Slovakia, trailing 1-2 at half-time before scoring three second-half goals.
- Kosovo managed nine shots, five on target; Slovakia had 20 shots, eight on target.
Ireland's 3-2 win in Hungary on 16 November 2025 came from 1-2 down at half-time.
Ireland scored three times from five shots on target while Hungary had 18 attempts, so the win came without territorial control. It is the most recent competitive match in the record and the clearest evidence that this Ireland side can turn a losing position into a win.
- 16 November 2025: Ireland won 3-2 away to Hungary after trailing 1-2 at half-time.
- Ireland scored three goals from five shots on target; Hungary had 18 shots (seven on target) to Ireland's 10 (five on target).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Kosovo's strong home defense and Ireland's poor away defensive record give the home side a slight edge.
- Kosovo home record: 3W 2D 1L in 6.
- Kosovo home concedes 0.5 goals per match.
- Ireland away record: 2W 0D 3L in 5.
- Ireland away concedes 2.2 goals per match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKosovoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
A level half-time score is the most likely outcome given the low first-half scoring.
- Kosovo home first-half goals against: 0.17 per match.
- Ireland away first-half goals for: 0.6 per match.
- First-half goals are typically low in these teams' matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ireland's away second-half defensive record suggests Kosovo can win the second half.
- Kosovo home second-half goals for: 0.33 per match.
- Ireland away second-half goals against: 1.4 per match.
- Ireland away second-half goals for: 0.6 per match.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonKosovoEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Kosovo's better first-half home record gives them the edge to lead at the break. A level half-time score is the most likely outcome given the low first-half scoring.
- Kosovo home first-half goals for: 0.67 per match.
- Ireland away first-half goals against: 0.8 per match.
- Kosovo home first-half goals against: 0.17 per match.
- Ireland away first-half goals for: 0.6 per match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonKosovo or DrawEstimated chance81%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kosovo's home games are low-scoring, making under 2.5 the more likely outcome.
- Kosovo home matches average 1.5 total goals.
- Kosovo home concedes 0.5 goals per match.
- Ireland away scores 1.2 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Kosovo's home defense and Ireland's occasional away blanks make a shutout for one side likely.
- Kosovo kept clean sheets in 3 of 6 home matches.
- Ireland away failed to score in 2 of 5 away matches.
- Kosovo home concedes only 0.5 goals per match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kosovo's low home scoring makes under 1.5 the strong likelihood.
- Kosovo home average goals for: 1.0.
- Kosovo home total goals: 6 in 6 matches.
- Ireland away concedes 2.2 goals per match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonKosovo under 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Both teams have shown they can score in the first half, so at least one goal is likely.
- Kosovo home first-half goals for: 0.67 per match.
- Ireland away first-half goals for: 0.6 per match.
- Combined first-half expected goals around 1.1.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.14
The read
At least one team is likely to keep a first-half clean sheet.
- Kosovo home first-half goals against: 0.17 per match.
- Ireland away first-half goals for: 0.6 per match.
- Combined first-half expected goals around 1.1.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Under 1.5 is more likely because Kosovo's home second halves are low-scoring.
- Kosovo home second-half goals for: 0.33 per match.
- Kosovo home second-half goals against: 0.33 per match.
- Ireland away second-half goals for: 0.6 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Under 7.5 is more likely because Kosovo's home corner counts are low.
- Kosovo home total corners average 5.7.
- Ireland away total corners average 7.8.
- Combined expected corners around 6.7.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 7.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ireland's away games are high-volume, making over 22.5 shots likely.
- Ireland away opponents average 18.4 shots.
- Kosovo home averages 11.2 shots.
- Combined expected shots around 23.3.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Under 8.5 is slightly more likely given Kosovo's low home shot-on-target count.
- Kosovo home total shots on target average 7.5.
- Ireland away total shots on target average 9.0.
- Combined expected around 8.3.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ireland's away games have been card-heavy, making over 5.5 likely.
- Ireland away averages 3.6 yellow cards.
- Kosovo home averages 2.7 yellow cards.
- Ireland away opponents average 2.6 yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Kosovo Relegation	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
3	Republic Of Ireland Relegation Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Kosovo leads the leagueRepublic Of Ireland leads the leagueKosovo in relegation zoneRepublic Of Ireland in relegation zone

Recent Form

Kosovo

W3-0AndorraJun 7FRI

L1-2CzechiaMay 31FRI

L0-1TürkiyeMar 31WOR

W4-3SlovakiaMar 26WOR

D1-1SwitzerlandNov 18WOR

W2-0SloveniaNov 15WOR

W1-0SwedenOct 13WOR

D0-0SloveniaOct 10WOR

W2-0SwedenSep 8WOR

L0-4SwitzerlandSep 5WOR

W4-2ComorosJun 9FRI

W5-2ArmeniaJun 6FRI

W3-1IcelandMar 23UEF

W2-1IcelandMar 20UEF

W1-0LithuaniaNov 18UEF

Republic Of Ireland

D1-1CanadaJun 5FRI

W1-0QatarMay 28FRI

W5-0GrenadaMay 16FRI

D0-0FYR MacedoniaMar 31FRI

W3-2HungaryNov 16WOR

W2-0PortugalNov 13WOR

W1-0ArmeniaOct 14WOR

L0-1PortugalOct 11WOR

L1-2ArmeniaSep 9WOR

D2-2HungarySep 6WOR

D0-0LuxembourgJun 10FRI

D1-1SenegalJun 6FRI

W2-1BulgariaMar 23UEF

W2-1BulgariaMar 20UEF

L0-5EnglandNov 17UEF

Squad & Injuries

Kosovo

32 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Republic Of Ireland

49 available

Attackers9

Midfielders19

Defenders14

Goalkeeper7

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 7.5

Over 2.5

Kosovo or Draw

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

No

Draw

Kosovo

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals5 of 6 landed

Match stats2 of 4 landed

League Table

Recent Form

Kosovo

Republic Of Ireland

Squad & Injuries

Kosovo

Republic Of Ireland