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Predictions graded

VV Zwaluwen0Purmersteijn1

HT 0–1Wed 23 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 13:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Zwaluwen's strong home form meets a Purmersteijn side that has scored in every recent outing.

Zwaluwen are the likelier winners, with a draw after 90 minutes a real possibility in a cup tie. The 1.55 for Zwaluwen to win or draw, 2.38 for a Zwaluwen win, 2.70 for not both teams scoring and 1.30 for not both scoring in the first half are the quoted prices worth taking; 1.20 for a goal before half-time is not.

Context

Zwaluwen's home matches have started quickly: 1.0 first-half goals scored per game against 0.13 conceded.
Purmersteijn have averaged 0.5 first-half goals per away match and have tended to reach the interval level or behind, so goals at both ends before the break are unlikely. A Zwaluwen goal in that period is the more reasonable expectation given they score once per home game before half-time. The home sample is only eight matches, so this is a lean rather than a settled pattern.
- Eight home matches from 21 March to 19 September 2026: 1.0 first-half goals for and 0.13 against per game
- One first-half goal conceded in total across those eight home matches
The nine-match sample is spread across several years, so it is not a season-long read on the current side. It does show Purmersteijn rarely finish a game without conceding, and both teams scored in seven of those nine matches. Against a Zwaluwen team that has scored in seven of eight home matches and kept four clean sheets at home, the likelier pattern is a home goal with Purmersteijn still able to reply.
- Nine competitive matches tracked from 19 August 2017 to 20 September 2026: 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses
- No clean sheets in that sample; both teams scored in seven of the nine
It is the biggest result in Zwaluwen's recent record and came in this same competition.
It is the standout result in Zwaluwen's recent form and the clearest sign of what they can do in this competition, though Lierop's level is not known from the tracked data. The half-time score was only 1-0, so the burst came late rather than from a fast start. Four of Zwaluwen's last six matches finished with two goals or fewer, which makes the 7-0 a single result rather than a guide to this tie.
- 2 September 2026: Lierop 0-7 Zwaluwen (KNVB Beker), half-time 1-0
- Six of Zwaluwen's seven goals came in the second half
It is a very small, era-mixed sample, so it cannot be read as a current away profile, but it does show Purmersteijn are not easily beaten on the road — both of their draws in the nine-match competitive record came away from home. Zwaluwen's six wins, one draw and one defeat in eight home matches is the sharper of the two records. The open question is whether Purmersteijn keep scoring against a defence conceding 0.63 goals per home game.
- Four away matches tracked from 19 August 2017 to 12 September 2026: 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss
- 1.25 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per away game; Purmersteijn scored in three of the four

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.38
The read
Zwaluwen have been notably stronger at home and Purmersteijn have not kept a clean sheet all season, so the home side is favoured.
- VV Zwaluwen at home: 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 8 matches, conceding 0.63 goals per game
- Purmersteijn overall: 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 9 competitive matches with no clean sheets
- Purmersteijn away: 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss in 4, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.5 per game
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVV ZwaluwenEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Zwaluwen start home matches strongly and have conceded almost nothing before the break at home.
- VV Zwaluwen first-half goals at home: 1.0 scored, 0.13 conceded per game
- Purmersteijn first-half goals away: 0.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game
- Purmersteijn have been level at half-time in most of their recent matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostVV ZwaluwenEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Zwaluwen keep games controlled after the break while Purmersteijn concede a goal per away game in second halves.
- VV Zwaluwen second-half goals at home: 0.75 scored, 0.5 conceded per game
- Purmersteijn second-half goals away: 0.75 scored, 1.0 conceded per game
- VV Zwaluwen have scored more second-half than first-half goals across their full sample
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostVV ZwaluwenEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Zwaluwen have been notably stronger at home and Purmersteijn have not kept a clean sheet all season, so the home side is favoured. A cup tie between two mid-level sides with little between them keeps a level score plausible.
- VV Zwaluwen at home: 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 8 matches, conceding 0.63 goals per game
- Purmersteijn overall: 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 9 competitive matches with no clean sheets
- VV Zwaluwen home record includes 1 draw in 8 matches
- Purmersteijn have drawn 2 of 9 competitive matches, both away from home
BetBugs · Double ChancelostVV Zwaluwen or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zwaluwen start home matches strongly and have conceded almost nothing before the break at home. Purmersteijn have kept first halves tight recently, so a level interval is a realistic outcome.
- VV Zwaluwen first-half goals at home: 1.0 scored, 0.13 conceded per game
- Purmersteijn first-half goals away: 0.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostVV Zwaluwen or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals7 of 9 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zwaluwen's low home concession rate and recent tight scorelines point to a controlled, lower-scoring cup tie.
- VV Zwaluwen home matches average 2.38 total goals
- Purmersteijn away matches average 2.75 total goals
- Four of Zwaluwen's last six matches finished with two goals or fewer
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Purmersteijn almost always score and Zwaluwen score in nearly every home game, so both finding the net is more likely than not.
- Purmersteijn scored in 7 of 9 competitive matches
- VV Zwaluwen scored in 7 of 8 home matches
- VV Zwaluwen kept 4 clean sheets in 8 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zwaluwen have been scoring in singles recently, which makes a tally of one or none more likely than two or more.
- VV Zwaluwen scored one goal or fewer in four of their last six matches
- VV Zwaluwen home scoring average is 1.75 goals per game
- Purmersteijn concede 1.5 goals per away match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonVV Zwaluwen under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Away from home Purmersteijn score around one goal against weaker defences than this one, so a low tally is likely.
- Purmersteijn average 1.25 goals per away match
- VV Zwaluwen concede 0.63 goals per home match and kept 4 clean sheets in 8
- Purmersteijn away scoring: 3 goals in 4 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonPurmersteijn under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Purmersteijn find the net in the large majority of their games, so Zwaluwen conceding is the more likely outcome.
- Purmersteijn scored in 7 of 9 competitive matches
- Purmersteijn scored in 3 of 4 away matches
- VV Zwaluwen conceded in 4 of 8 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPurmersteijn to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zwaluwen score regularly at home and Purmersteijn have conceded in every competitive match this season.
- Purmersteijn kept no clean sheets in 9 competitive matches
- VV Zwaluwen scored in 7 of 8 home matches
- Purmersteijn concede 1.5 goals per away match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostVV Zwaluwen to scoreEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Zwaluwen score early at home and their recent games almost always have a goal before the break.
- VV Zwaluwen average 1.0 first-half goals at home
- Purmersteijn average 0.5 first-half goals away
- Five of Zwaluwen's last six matches had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Zwaluwen's near-spotless home first halves make two early goals unlikely.
- VV Zwaluwen conceded one first-half goal in 8 home matches
- Purmersteijn average 0.5 first-half goals away
- Purmersteijn have been level or behind at half-time in most recent matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Home second halves for Zwaluwen have produced little, and Purmersteijn's away second-half output is modest.
- VV Zwaluwen second-half goals at home: 0.75 scored, 0.5 conceded per game
- Purmersteijn away second-half goals: 0.75 scored, 1.0 conceded per game
- ZWaluwen's home games average 1.25 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Recent Form

VV Zwaluwen

W1-0FC LisseSep 19DER

L0-1Groene SterSep 12DER

W1-0UDI '19Sep 5DER

W7-0LieropSep 2KNV

L1-3PoortugaalAug 29DER

D1-1UNAAug 22DER

L0-4DongenAug 15DER

W3-0Blauw GeelMay 23DER

W6-1ASWHMay 16DER

L0-1TOGBMay 9DER

L1-2KloetingeApr 25DER

W3-1SteDoCoApr 18DER

L0-1NoordwijkApr 11DER

W3-2Groene SterMar 28DER

W2-0GemertMar 21DER

Purmersteijn

W2-1ADO '20Sep 20DER

D1-1Excelsior '31Sep 12DER

L1-2DovoSep 5DER

W4-3Zwaluw VFCSep 2KNV

W3-1HoogeveenAug 30DER

D1-1Sportlust '46Aug 22DER

W3-1VV ScherpenzeelAug 15DER

L1-7FC VolendamJul 5FRI

L0-2Sportlust '46Aug 12KNV

W2-1ADO '20Jul 19FRI

L0-3Sparta NijkerkAug 19KNV

Squad & Injuries

VV Zwaluwen

18 available

Attackers5

Midfielders7

Defenders4

Goalkeeper2

Purmersteijn

23 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders5

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

VV Zwaluwen or Draw

VV Zwaluwen

No

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result0 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 9 landed

Recent Form

VV Zwaluwen

Purmersteijn

Squad & Injuries

VV Zwaluwen

Purmersteijn