1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip
Under 0.5 goals in 1st half
3.80fair 3.33
Market 26.3% · BetBugs 30%
+3.7ppedge
Both attacks are weak before the break, so a goalless first half remains a real possibility.
CONCACAF Nations League·Full time
Predictions graded
Turks and Caicos Islands00 – 2
Montserrat2
HT 0–1· · Predictions graded
Predictions7–464%
Edges0–10%
Quick Take
Pre-match view
Montserrat are the marginal pick to win, but their away record — two goals in seven matches — is why this stays close against a Turks and Caicos side that has won three of seven at home.
The goalless first half at 3.8 is the only reviewed price worth taking; the 1.2 on a first-half goal asks for more than these two attacks usually deliver.
Context
Montserrat arrive with almost no away scoring to lean on.
From 11 September 2023 to 11 June 2025 Montserrat played seven tracked away matches, losing six and scoring 0.29 goals per game while conceding 2.29. The two goals were split one in each half, so there is no period in which they have regularly threatened on the road. Their only away win in the sample was 1-0 at Bonaire on 10 October 2024, and anything beyond a single goal from them would sit outside this record.
- Montserrat away record, 7 competitive matches, 11 September 2023 to 11 June 2025: 1W-0D-6L, 2 goals scored (0.29 per game), 16 conceded (2.29 per game).
- Those two goals were split one in the first half and one in the second (0.14 per half per game).
- The only away win in the sample was 1-0 at Bonaire on 10 October 2024.
The Belize results are the closest thing to a common yardstick in the tracked record.
Belize beat Turks and Caicos 4-0 at home in September 2024 and 3-0 away the following month, then lost 1-0 to Montserrat in a June 2025 World Cup qualifier. That contrast is part of why the visitor is the marginal favourite despite a poor away record. The caveat is that the games come from different competitions and nearly a year apart, and Montserrat lost 0-3 in Guyana a week after beating Belize.
- Turks and Caicos Islands 0-4 Belize, 7 September 2024, CONCACAF Nations League.
- Belize 3-0 Turks and Caicos Islands, 16 October 2024, CONCACAF Nations League.
- Montserrat 1-0 Belize, 4 June 2025, World Cup qualifying, followed by Montserrat's 0-3 loss in Guyana on 11 June 2025.
The home record is Turks and Caicos' main argument, and it comes with two goals conceded per game.
Three wins and a draw from seven home matches give Turks and Caicos a competitive base, with 1.14 goals scored per home game between June 2022 and October 2024. Conceding 2.0 per home match, and 2.4 across all 15 tracked matches in the window, means they rarely keep a game under control. Their most recent home results in the sample were a 2-1 win over Anguilla on 13 October 2024 and a 0-4 loss to Belize five weeks earlier.
- Turks and Caicos home record, 7 competitive matches, 3 June 2022 to 13 October 2024: 3W-1D-3L, 1.14 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per home game.
- Turks and Caicos overall, 15 competitive matches, 3 June 2022 to 16 October 2024: 4W-2D-9L, 1.0 scored and 2.4 conceded per game.
- Most recent home results in the sample: 2-1 win over Anguilla on 13 October 2024; 0-4 loss to Belize on 7 September 2024.
Signal quality track record · Football
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Share of graded picks that landed, per signal quality.
BetBugs edges
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
BetBugs probabilities
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Result3 of 5 landed
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Montserrat have competed at a higher level and handled Belize, a team that beat Turks and Caicos heavily.
- Montserrat beat Belize 1-0 in June 2025, while Turks and Caicos lost 0-3 and 0-4 to Belize
- Montserrat played League B fixtures against El Salvador and St Vincent/Grenadines
- Montserrat's away record is 1W-6L with 0.29 goals scored per away game
- Turks and Caicos concede 2.4 goals per game across 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMontserratEstimated chance39%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half goal rates are low on both sides, which favours a level score at the break.
- Turks and Caicos home first halves average 1.14 goals total
- Montserrat away first halves average 1.57 goals total
- Turks and Caicos were level at half-time in two of their last six listed matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both attacks limited after the break, a level second half is the single most likely outcome.
- Turks and Caicos home second halves average 2.0 goals total
- Montserrat away second halves average 1.0 goal total
- Montserrat's last six listed matches produced one second-half goal or none in five of them
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance36%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Home form is competitive and Montserrat have scored only twice in seven away matches, though Montserrat have beaten Belize, a side that thrashed Turks and Caicos. Montserrat have competed at a higher level and handled Belize, a team that beat Turks and Caicos heavily.
- Turks and Caicos are 3W-1D-3L in 7 home matches in this window, averaging 1.14 scored and 2.0 conceded at home
- Montserrat are 1W-0D-6L away with 2 goals scored and 16 conceded in 7 away matches
- Montserrat beat Belize 1-0 in June 2025, while Turks and Caicos lost 0-3 and 0-4 to Belize
- Montserrat played League B fixtures against El Salvador and St Vincent/Grenadines
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTurks and Caicos Islands or MontserratEstimated chance73%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goal rates are low on both sides, which favours a level score at the break. Turks and Caicos concede early at home, giving Montserrat a realistic chance to lead at the interval.
- Turks and Caicos home first halves average 1.14 goals total
- Montserrat away first halves average 1.57 goals total
- Turks and Caicos concede 0.86 first-half goals per home match and 1.13 across 15 matches
- Montserrat have scored in the first half in only 1 of their last six listed matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or MontserratEstimated chance72%
Goals4 of 6 landed
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither attack scores much and Montserrat rarely score away from home.
- Seven of the last twelve listed matches for these teams finished under 2.5 goals
- Montserrat average 0.29 goals scored per away game
- Both teams average under 1.2 goals scored per game overall
- Turks and Caicos failed to score in 6 of 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Montserrat's very low away scoring makes a clean sheet for either side the more likely route.
- Montserrat scored 2 goals in 7 away matches
- Both teams scored in only 1 of Montserrat's 7 away matches
- Turks and Caicos failed to score in 6 of 15 tracked matches
- Montserrat kept 1 clean sheet in 7 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance62%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Montserrat's away output has stayed at one goal or fewer throughout the available sample.
- Montserrat scored 2 goals in 7 away matches (0.29 per game)
- Montserrat's highest scoring listed away match in this sample was a single goal
- Montserrat have not scored more than once in any of their last six listed matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostMontserrat under 1.5Estimated chance78%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Montserrat concede regularly on the road, so keeping Turks and Caicos out is the less likely outcome.
- Montserrat kept 1 clean sheet in 7 away matches
- Turks and Caicos scored 5 goals in 7 home matches
- Montserrat concede 2.29 goals per away match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostTurks and Caicos Islands to scoreEstimated chance65%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves in these teams' matches usually produce at least one goal.
- Nine of the last twelve listed matches for these teams had a first-half goal
- Turks and Caicos home first halves average 1.14 goals total
- Montserrat away first halves average 1.57 goals total
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Montserrat's second halves are consistently low scoring, which keeps the total down.
- Montserrat away second halves average 1.0 goal total
- Montserrat score 0.14 second-half goals per away match
- Only one of Montserrat's last six listed matches had two or more second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%
Match stats0 of 0 landed
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides take few corners themselves, and recent games have mostly stayed below this line.
- Only 3 of the last 11 listed matches for these teams exceeded 8.5 corners
- Turks and Caicos take 2.6 corners per home match
- Turks and Caicos' matches average 7.0 corners total across 9 tracked games
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams give up large shot volumes and their matches regularly pass this line.
- Turks and Caicos matches average 17.7 total shots (6.3 for, 11.4 against)
- Montserrat matches average 22.1 total shots (7.4 for, 14.7 against)
- All listed matches with shot data cleared 13.5 total shots (5 of 5 for Turks and Caicos, 6 of 6 for Montserrat)
BetBugs · Shots Over/Undernot gradableOver 13.5Estimated chance86%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target in these teams' matches are consistently above this line.
- Turks and Caicos matches average 7.3 shots on target total (1.9 for, 5.4 against)
- Montserrat matches average 8.1 shots on target total (2.9 for, 5.2 against)
- 10 of 11 listed matches with shot data had more than 4.5 combined shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance86%
The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees
Recent Form
Turks and Caicos Islands
L0-3BelizeCON
W2-1AnguillaCON
L0-4BelizeCON
L0-2AnguillaCON
D0-0AnguillaWOR
L0-2DominicaCON
D2-2British Virgin IslandsCON
L0-3DominicaCON
L1-3British Virgin IslandsCON
W2-1BonaireCON
W1-0US Virgin IslandsCON
W2-0Sint MaartenCON
L2-8Sint MaartenCON
L2-3US Virgin IslandsCON
L1-4BonaireCON
Montserrat
L0-3GuyanaWOR
W1-0BelizeWOR
L0-1El SalvadorCON
L1-2St. Vincent / GrenadinesCON
L0-1BonaireCON
W1-0BonaireCON
L0-2St. Vincent / GrenadinesCON
L1-4El SalvadorCON
L1-3PanamaWOR
L1-4NicaraguaWOR
W4-2BarbadosCON
W2-1Dominican RepublicCON
L0-3NicaraguaCON
L0-3NicaraguaCON
L0-3Dominican RepublicCON
Squad & Injuries
Turks and Caicos Islands
18 availableAttackers4
Midfielders6
Defenders6
Goalkeeper2
Montserrat
19 availableAttackers3
Midfielders8
Defenders5
Goalkeeper3