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Predictions graded

IJsselmeervogels0VV Gemert3

HT 0–3Wed 23 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–936%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 13:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Gemert's habit of scoring in every away game keeps this cup tie live, even though IJsselmeervogels play a division higher and are the likelier winners.

Four quoted prices carry an edge: Gemert or a draw at 3.25, Gemert to win at 7, both teams to score at 1.78, and under 2.5 goals at 2.6. The short prices - 1.30 on the home win, 1.45 on over 2.5 goals - do not.

Context

VV Gemert's away split covers seven matches, the smallest of their samples, and both teams have scored in every one of them.
That is 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per away match, a much more open profile than their overall 2.07 and 1.57 across 14 competitive matches. Against an IJsselmeervogels side with six clean sheets in 13 matches, Gemert's record of scoring on every away trip is the clearest reason to expect them to find the net here.
- VV Gemert away split, 12 April to 12 September 2026: three wins, two draws and two defeats in seven matches, 14 goals scored and 14 conceded (2.00 each per match)
- Both teams scored in all seven of those away matches; Gemert kept no away clean sheet in the sample
- Gemert's overall competitive record, 4 April to 20 September 2026: five wins, six draws and three defeats in 14 matches, 2.07 scored and 1.57 conceded per match
The home split is a six-match sample, the smallest on IJsselmeervogels' file, and it is the least comfortable part of their record.
Three wins, one draw and two defeats in six home games, with both teams scoring in three of them, points to games decided by fine margins rather than a dominant host. A team averaging 1.33 goals at home gives a visiting side that has scored in all seven away matches a realistic chance of staying in the tie.
- IJsselmeervogels home split, 9 May to 29 August 2026: three wins, one draw and two defeats in six matches, eight goals scored and seven conceded (1.33 and 1.17 per match)
- Two clean sheets in the six home matches; both teams scored in three of the six
- Home first-half average of 0.50 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per match, against 0.83 scored and 0.83 conceded in second halves
A 5-6-3 record in 14 matches, with six draws, is the profile of a side that stays in games rather than one that blows opponents away.
Six draws in 14 competitive matches is the single most frequent outcome in Gemert's file, and they have scored in 13 of those matches and conceded in 13. That makes a level finish a genuine possibility against a home side whose own six home games have already produced one draw and two defeats.
- VV Gemert competitive record, 4 April to 20 September 2026: five wins, six draws and three defeats in 14 matches, 2.07 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per match
- Six draws is the most common single result in that 14-match sample
- Gemert scored in 13 of the 14 matches and conceded in 13, with both teams scoring in 12 of them
The 2-0 win away at FC 's-Gravenzande on 2 September 2026 is the one cup result in Gemert's sampled record.
It is a single match and carries no weight beyond that, but it does show Gemert have already handled an away cup trip in this window. The two second-half goals also sit with their away pattern of 1.57 goals scored after the break against 0.43 before it.
- KNVB Beker, 2 September 2026: FC 's-Gravenzande 0-2 VV Gemert, an away win with a 0-0 first half and 2-0 to Gemert in the second half

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IJsselmeervogels plays one division higher and has the stronger overall record, with home advantage adding to that.
- IJsselmeervogels: 8W-2D-3L in 13 competitive matches, 2.00 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per match, 6 clean sheets
- Home split: 3W-1D-2L in 6, 1.33 scored and 1.17 conceded per home match
- VV Gemert play a division lower (Derde Divisie): 5W-6D-3L in 14, 2.07 scored and 1.57 conceded
- Gemert away split: 3W-2D-2L in 7, 14 scored and 14 conceded
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIJsselmeervogelsEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging under a goal before the break, a level first half is the most likely single result.
- IJsselmeervogels first-half scoring 0.69 per match; Gemert 0.86 per match
- Combined first-half expectation is about one goal per match
- IJsselmeervogels concede 0.38 first-half goals per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves carry most of both teams' goals, and IJsselmeervogels' overall defensive record gives them a slight edge after the break.
- IJsselmeervogels second-half goals: 1.31 scored and 0.54 conceded per match; at home 0.83 and 0.83
- Gemert second-half goals: 1.21 scored and 0.86 conceded; away 1.57 and 1.29
- IJsselmeervogels have the better overall defensive record in second halves
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostIJsselmeervogelsEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IJsselmeervogels plays one division higher and has the stronger overall record, with home advantage adding to that. Gemert's record is draw-heavy and their away games have been tight, high-scoring affairs.
- IJsselmeervogels: 8W-2D-3L in 13 competitive matches, 2.00 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per match, 6 clean sheets
- Home split: 3W-1D-2L in 6, 1.33 scored and 1.17 conceded per home match
- Gemert have drawn 6 of 14 competitive matches, the most common single result in their record
- Gemert away: 2 draws in 7; IJsselmeervogels home: 1 draw in 6
BetBugs · Double ChancelostIJsselmeervogels or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IJsselmeervogels has the better first-half defence and the stronger side overall, giving them the edge before the break. With both teams averaging under a goal before the break, a level first half is the most likely single result.
- IJsselmeervogels first-half goals: 0.69 scored and 0.38 conceded per match; at home 0.50 and 0.33
- Gemert first-half goals: 0.86 scored and 0.71 conceded; away 0.43 and 0.71
- IJsselmeervogels first-half scoring 0.69 per match; Gemert 0.86 per match
- Combined first-half expectation is about one goal per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostIJsselmeervogels or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gemert's away games have been consistently high-scoring and both teams score at a healthy rate.
- Gemert away matches average 4.00 goals (14 scored, 14 conceded in 7)
- Gemert's 14 competitive matches average 3.64 goals
- IJsselmeervogels matches average 2.92 goals, but only 2.50 across their 6 home matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Both sides score regularly and Gemert's away matches have produced goals at both ends every time.
- Gemert scored in 13 of 14 matches, including all 7 away, and conceded in 13 of 14
- Both teams scored in 12 of Gemert's 14 matches
- IJsselmeervogels scored in 12 of 13 matches, and 5 of 6 at home
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IJsselmeervogels' home scoring output has been modest despite their stronger overall numbers.
- IJsselmeervogels home scoring: 8 goals in 6 matches, 1.33 per game
- Their home matches produced 0, 1 and 1 goals in the two most recent home fixtures
- Gemert's away defensive record is 14 conceded in 7
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonIJsselmeervogels under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IJsselmeervogels' home defence has been reasonably tight, and Gemert now faces a higher-division opponent.
- IJsselmeervogels concede 1.17 per home match (7 in 6), with 2 clean sheets
- IJsselmeervogels kept 6 clean sheets in 13 competitive matches
- Gemert's away goals came against Derde Divisie opposition
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostVV Gemert under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gemert's scoring record is consistent across home and away matches, which points to the home defence being breached.
- Gemert scored in 13 of 14 matches, including all 7 away
- Gemert average 2.07 goals per match
- IJsselmeervogels conceded in 7 of 13 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonVV Gemert to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gemert's away defence has conceded in every match and IJsselmeervogels scores regularly.
- Gemert conceded 14 goals in 7 away matches, conceding in every one
- Gemert's only clean sheet came in 14 competitive matches
- IJsselmeervogels scored in 12 of 13 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostIJsselmeervogels to scoreEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gemert's habit of scoring in every away match makes a home win without conceding unlikely.
- Gemert scored in 13 of 14 matches and all 7 away matches
- IJsselmeervogels have 6 clean sheets but 8 wins, so the two do not always overlap
- Gemert average 2.07 goals per match
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The two teams' first-half rates point to about a goal before the break, making at least one goal more likely than none.
- IJsselmeervogels first-half goals for 0.69 and against 0.38 per match
- Gemert first-half goals for 0.86 and against 0.71 per match; away 0.43 for and 0.71 against
- Combined first-half expectation is around one goal per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce most of their goals after the break, pointing to two or more in the second half.
- IJsselmeervogels second-half: 1.31 scored, 0.54 conceded per match
- Gemert second-half: 1.21 scored, 0.86 conceded per match; away 1.57 and 1.29
- Combined second-half expectation is around two goals per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Recent Form

IJsselmeervogels

W1-0ROHDA RaalteSep 19TWE

W2-0KloetingeSep 5TWE

D1-1RKAV VolendamAug 29TWE

L0-1Quick BoysAug 22TWE

W2-1Kozakken BoysAug 15TWE

W10-3EVVAug 8FRI

L1-7Jong AZAug 1FRI

L1-2Excelsior MaassluisJun 10TWE

W1-0ADO '20Jun 6TWE

W7-0ADO '20Jun 3TWE

W2-1Sparta NijkerkMay 30TWE

W3-0Sparta NijkerkMay 27TWE

L2-4ACVMay 23TWE

D2-2Quick BoysMay 16TWE

W2-0HHCMay 9TWE

VV Gemert

D1-1UDI '19Sep 20DER

W2-1PoortugaalSep 12DER

D1-1UNASep 6DER

W2-0FC 's-GravenzandeSep 2KNV

L2-3DongenAug 30DER

D2-2GOESAug 23DER

D2-2RijnvogelsAug 15DER

D1-1Helmond SportJul 7FRI

D3-3GOESMay 23DER

W6-1SteDoCoMay 16DER

L0-1VvsbMay 10DER

L1-4NoordwijkApr 25DER

W4-1MeerssenApr 19DER

W2-1Groene SterApr 12DER

D1-1KloetingeApr 4DER

Squad & Injuries

IJsselmeervogels

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders6

Goalkeeper4

VV Gemert

23 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

IJsselmeervogels0VV Gemert3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or VV Gemert

VV Gemert

Yes

Under 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 9 landed

Recent Form

IJsselmeervogels

VV Gemert

Squad & Injuries

IJsselmeervogels

VV Gemert