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Predictions graded

Chelsea Women1USC Landhaus Women0

HT 1–0Wed 23 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 13–15On targetOn target 6–6CornersCorners 4–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 13:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Chelsea have not lost at home in nine matches, while Landhaus arrive having beaten Brann 4-0 in Europe.

A Chelsea win is the likely outcome, but at 1.01 there is nothing in it for the risk. Two prices do offer value: fewer than three goals at 5.25 and both teams to score at 3.6, with Landhaus's eight clean sheets and Chelsea's home scoring both in play.

Context

Landhaus arrive as underdogs, but they have a four-goal European home win from the same stretch of the season as this fixture.
A Brann sending-off helped the margin, so the scoreline is a little kinder than the performance, but Landhaus still scored in both halves against a European opponent and kept a clean sheet. Their away form in the wider sample is two wins, two draws and one defeat in five, and travelling to Chelsea is a far harder assignment than playing at home in Europe. It shows they can take a game away from a side once it opens up.
- On 1 September 2026, USC Landhaus beat Brann 4-0 at home in the UEFA Champions League Women, leading 1-0 at half-time and adding three second-half goals.
- Brann had one player sent off in that match; Landhaus collected one yellow card and conceded none.
Chelsea's home numbers are strong, but this is the one home match in the sample where they conceded twice.
It is the clearest sign that a Chelsea home clean sheet is a reasonable expectation rather than a certainty, and that the game can open up once they get in front. The second half alone produced five goals, so a tight, low-scoring evening would need Landhaus to defend well and Chelsea to manage the game. Landhaus's own record includes a 4-0 against Brann, so the visiting side is not without a goal in it.
- On 26 August 2026, Chelsea beat Real Sociedad 5-2 at home in the UEFA Champions League Women, with the score 1-1 at half-time and 4-1 to Chelsea in the second half.
Chelsea's most recent home match was heavy on control and light on goals.
Eight of their 22 attempts were on target while Birmingham managed three, yet the score stayed at one goal per half. It is a fair picture of the current Chelsea home side: they pin opponents back for long spells without always turning that pressure into a big scoreline, which is worth knowing in a tie where the goal count is the open question. They also kept a clean sheet in the process.
- On 19 September 2026, Chelsea beat Birmingham City 2-0 at home in the FA WSL, recording 22 shots to 5, 8 on target to 3, and 12 corners to 1.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Chelsea Women

1.01fair 1.11

BetBugs 90% · Market 99%

−9.0ppshort

Chelsea's strong home record and higher-level Champions League results point to a clear win.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.07fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 93.5%

−11.5ppshort

Both teams have shown they can score before half-time, making at least one first-half goal likely.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.04fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 96.2%

−16.2ppshort

Chelsea's defence makes it unlikely that both teams score before half-time.

First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Chelsea Women

1.14fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 87.7%

−35.7ppshort

Chelsea's stronger overall level and home advantage make a first-half lead the most likely single outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.01
The read
Chelsea's strong home record and higher-level Champions League results point to a clear win.
- Chelsea Women have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 15 competitive matches, averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.93 conceded.
- At home they are unbeaten in 9 matches (8 wins, 1 draw) with 2.22 scored and 0.89 conceded.
- USC Landhaus Women have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses overall, but away they are 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonChelsea WomenEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.14
The read
Chelsea's stronger overall level and home advantage make a first-half lead the most likely single outcome.
- Chelsea average 1.22 first-half goals and 0.56 first-half goals conceded at home.
- USC Landhaus average 0.8 first-half goals and 0.2 first-half goals conceded away.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonChelsea WomenEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's stronger squad and home advantage make them the most likely second-half winner.
- Chelsea average 1 second-half goal and concede 0.33 second-half goals at home.
- USC Landhaus average 1 second-half goal and concede 0.6 second-half goals away.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostChelsea WomenEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's strong home record and higher-level Champions League results point to a clear win. A draw would require Chelsea to drop points at home, which they have rarely done in this sample.
- Chelsea Women have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 15 competitive matches, averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.93 conceded.
- At home they are unbeaten in 9 matches (8 wins, 1 draw) with 2.22 scored and 0.89 conceded.
- Chelsea have drawn 2 of 15 competitive matches, including 1-1 at home to Aston Villa.
- USC Landhaus have drawn 4 of 15 matches, with 2 draws in 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonChelsea Women or DrawEstimated chance97%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's stronger overall level and home advantage make a first-half lead the most likely single outcome. A draw at half-time is possible if Chelsea take time to break down a well-organised Landhaus side.
- Chelsea average 1.22 first-half goals and 0.56 first-half goals conceded at home.
- USC Landhaus average 0.8 first-half goals and 0.2 first-half goals conceded away.
- Chelsea have been level at half-time in some recent matches, including 0-0 away to Real Sociedad.
- USC Landhaus drew the first half 0-0 away to First Vienna.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonChelsea Women or DrawEstimated chance88%

Goals5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score at a good rate, and Chelsea's attacking output makes three or more goals more likely than not.
- Chelsea average 2.33 scored and 0.93 conceded per match, a combined 3.26 goals.
- USC Landhaus average 2.4 scored and 0.6 conceded, a combined 3.0 goals.
- Chelsea's home matches include a 5-2 Champions League win over Real Sociedad.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's defence is likely to limit Landhaus, making a clean sheet for the home side the more probable outcome.
- Chelsea have kept 6 clean sheets in 15 matches, including 4 in 9 at home.
- USC Landhaus failed to score in 3 of 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's home scoring rate makes at least two goals more likely than not.
- Chelsea average 2.22 goals per home match and 2.33 overall.
- Chelsea scored two or more in their last home match and five in a recent Champions League home match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostChelsea Women over 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's defence should limit Landhaus to one goal or fewer.
- Chelsea have conceded 0.89 goals per home match and kept 4 clean sheets in 9 at home.
- USC Landhaus average 1.8 away goals but have not faced a team of Chelsea's level.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonUSC Landhaus Women under 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's home defence and Landhaus's step up in opposition make a home clean sheet more likely than not.
- Chelsea have kept 6 clean sheets in 15 matches, including 4 in 9 at home.
- USC Landhaus have failed to score in 3 of 15 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonUSC Landhaus Women not to scoreEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.07
The read
Both teams have shown they can score before half-time, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Chelsea have scored in the first half in five of their last six matches.
- USC Landhaus have scored in the first half in five of their last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.04
The read
Chelsea's defence makes it unlikely that both teams score before half-time.
- Chelsea have kept 6 clean sheets in 15 matches and concede 0.56 first-half goals per home match.
- USC Landhaus have failed to score in 3 of 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half goal rates point to at least two second-half goals being more likely than not.
- Chelsea's home matches average 1.33 combined second-half goals.
- USC Landhaus's away matches average 1.6 combined second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The available card numbers suggest over 2.5 is slightly more likely, though the sample is very small.
- Chelsea average 1.4 yellow cards and their opponents 1.4 in 5 home matches with card data.
- USC Landhaus have card data for only one overall match, where they averaged 1 yellow card and their opponents 2.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.01 price requires 99.0%, above our 90.0% estimate.

Recent Form

Chelsea Women

W2-0Birmingham City WSep 19FA

W5-0Manchester United WSep 13FA

D1-1Aston Villa WSep 5FA

W1-0Real Sociedad WSep 2UEF

W5-2Real Sociedad WAug 26UEF

W1-0Manchester United WMay 16FA

W3-1Leicester City FC WMay 3FA

W4-1Everton WApr 26FA

W2-1Tottenham Hotspur WApr 6FA

W1-0Arsenal WApr 1UEF

W4-3Aston Villa WMar 29FA

L1-3Arsenal WMar 24UEF

D1-1London City Lionesses WMar 21FA

W2-1Brighton WMar 18FA

W2-0Manchester United WMar 15WSL

USC Landhaus Women

W2-0Kleinmünchen / BW Linz WSep 19FRA

W5-0Südburgenland WSep 13FRA

W4-0Brann WSep 1UEF

D1-1First Vienna WAug 29FRA

L1-2Brann WAug 25UEF

W7-0Salzburg WAug 21FRA

W2-0LASK WAug 14FRA

W5-0Farul Constanţa WAug 8UEF

W3-2Hajduk Split WAug 5UEF

L0-1St. Pölten WAug 1FRA

D1-1St. Pölten WMay 30FRA

D0-0Salzburg WMay 23FRA

W2-1Sturm Graz WMay 17FRA

W3-1Sturm Graz WMay 9FRA

D0-0Salzburg WMay 3FRA

Squad & Injuries

Chelsea Women

29 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

USC Landhaus Women

23 available

Attackers7

Midfielders4

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Chelsea Women1USC Landhaus Women0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Yes

Chelsea Women

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

No

Chelsea Women

BetBugs probabilities

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 8 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Chelsea Women

Recent Form

Chelsea Women

USC Landhaus Women

Squad & Injuries

Chelsea Women

USC Landhaus Women