Azerbaijan11 – 0Tajikistan0

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Azerbaijan have reached half-time level in half of their recent matches and friendlies often start slowly.

• Three of Azerbaijan's last six matches were level at half-time
• Azerbaijan score 0.56 and concede 1.22 first-half goals per game
• Tajikistan's away first halves: 2.0 scored, 0.25 conceded
• Friendly openings are often cautious

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Tajikistan start matches strongly and Azerbaijan have regularly conceded before half-time. Azerbaijan have reached half-time level in half of their recent matches and friendlies often start slowly.

• Tajikistan score 1.44 first-half goals per game and concede 0.56
• Away split: 2.0 first-half goals for, 0.25 against
• Three of Azerbaijan's last six matches were level at half-time
• Azerbaijan score 0.56 and concede 1.22 first-half goals per game

BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or TajikistanEstimated chance79%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Tajikistan's clean-sheet rate is high and Azerbaijan's chance volume is low.

• Tajikistan: five clean sheets in nine competitive matches, 0.78 conceded per game
• Azerbaijan failed to score in two of their last six
• Azerbaijan average 5.4 shots and 1.5 shots on target per game
• Tajikistan conceded one goal in four away matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Azerbaijan's attacking output is low and Tajikistan defend well as a unit.

• Azerbaijan scored one goal or none in five of their last six matches
• Tajikistan have five clean sheets in nine competitive matches
• Azerbaijan average 1.5 shots on target per game
• Tajikistan conceded one goal in four away matches

BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonAzerbaijan under 1.5Estimated chance70%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Azerbaijan have been harder to break down at home than their overall record suggests.

• Azerbaijan concede 1.4 per game at home, below their overall 2.56
• Tajikistan scored once in the 1-1 draw with the Philippines
• Tajikistan's away wins were all against weaker Asian opposition
• Tajikistan scored 1.4 per game in their five home matches, below their away figure

BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonTajikistan under 1.5Estimated chance53%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Azerbaijan have found the net in most recent games and a friendly may open up more than Tajikistan's qualifiers did.

• Azerbaijan scored in four of their last six matches
• Azerbaijan average 1.6 goals per game at home
• Tajikistan kept only two clean sheets in five home matches
• Azerbaijan scored six in their most recent home match

BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAzerbaijan to scoreEstimated chance58%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Azerbaijan usually score at home, so a Tajikistan win is more likely to be accompanied by a conceded goal.

• Azerbaijan scored in four of their last six matches
• Azerbaijan average 1.6 goals per game at home
• Tajikistan kept two clean sheets in five home matches
• Tajikistan drew three of nine competitive matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17

The read

The first half is unlikely to produce goals for both sides given Tajikistan's early defensive record.

• Tajikistan conceded 0.25 first-half goals per away match
• Azerbaijan failed to score before half-time in three of their last six
• Tajikistan have five clean sheets in nine competitive matches
• Only a small share of recent matches had both teams scoring before the break