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Predictions graded

Worksop Town5Telford United2

HT 3–2Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges1–325%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 15:25 · Europe/Bucharest

The FA Cup tie returns to Worksop three days after a 2-2 draw and looks tight, with few early goals.

Worksop hold the head-to-head edge at home, but Telford have drawn five of twelve and travel light on goals. The half-time draw at 2.3, no on both teams scoring before half-time at 1.22 and the match draw at 4.0 are the prices with something in them; Worksop at 1.91 and both teams to score at 1.57 are not.

Context

The first meeting finished 2-2, and the clubs are back on the pitch three days later, so neither side gets much recovery time. It is also the fourth meeting on record to produce three or more goals, a pattern that runs against the tighter scoring in both sides' recent league matches. No lineup, availability or venue detail is available, so how each team handles the short turnaround is unknown.
- 19 September 2026, FA Cup: AFC Telford United 2-2 Worksop Town.
- It was both clubs' most recent competitive match before the 22 September replay.
That August win is the latest look at this fixture at Worksop and it came by a single goal, with Telford scoring. It is one of two Worksop home meetings with Telford in the head-to-head record, and both went the hosts' way, which is the clearest argument in Worksop's favour here. The counterweight is that Worksop have lost three of five home matches in the current season, so their ground has not been a reliable advantage. Four meetings is a small head-to-head sample.
- 15 August 2026, National League North at Worksop: Worksop Town 2-1 AFC Telford United.
- Four meetings between the clubs appear in the head-to-head record.
The 2-2 draw on 19 September is the fifth stalemate in twelve competitive matches for Telford, and only two of those twelve have been wins. A side that finishes level that often is why this tie reads as tight rather than one-sided. The counterweight is Worksop's own home record, two wins, no draws and three defeats in five, because a level finish would be out of character for the hosts at home. The sample runs from April to September 2026 and covers more than one competition.
- 12 competitive matches, 18 April to 19 September 2026: 2 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats.
- The most recent of those draws was 2-2 at home to Worksop Town on 19 September 2026.
Telford have scored once in the first half across those six away matches, while their second-half average is roughly four times higher, so their away goals have arrived after the interval in this sample. That fits a quiet opening period at Worksop. The away sample is only six matches, and Worksop's home record of two wins and three defeats in five offers no guarantee of a fast start either.
- Six away matches, 25 April to 12 September 2026: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 defeats.
- First-half scoring average 0.17 per away game; second-half average 0.67 per away game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Worksop's strong home record against Telford and better home win rate give them the edge, but Telford's tendency to draw keeps the match competitive.
- Worksop won both previous home meetings with Telford (2-1, 3-1).
- Worksop home form: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses.
- Telford away form: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses.
- Last H2H was a 2-2 draw at Telford.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonWorksop TownEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making a half-time draw the most likely outcome.
- Worksop home first half: GF 0.4, GA 0.2.
- Telford away first half: GF 0.17, GA 0.83.
- Worksop drew at half in 4 of last 6.
- Telford drew at half in 3 of last 6.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown mixed second-half results, making a draw the most probable single outcome.
- Worksop home second half GA: 1.2.
- Telford away second half GF: 0.67.
- Worksop drew second half in 2 of last 6.
- Telford drew second half in 3 of last 6.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Worksop's stronger first-half home defence and Telford's poor away first-half scoring give Worksop the best chance to lead, though half-time draws are common. Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making a half-time draw the most likely outcome.
- Worksop home first half goals for: 0.4, against: 0.2.
- Telford away first half goals for: 0.17, against: 0.83.
- Worksop home first half: GF 0.4, GA 0.2.
- Telford away first half: GF 0.17, GA 0.83.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonWorksop Town or DrawEstimated chance88%

Goals6 of 10 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
H2H history is high-scoring, but recent form suggests a tighter game, making over 2.5 a slight lean.
- All four recent H2H meetings had 3+ goals.
- Worksop matches average 2.5 total goals.
- Telford matches average 2.17 total goals.
- Recent 6: Worksop over 2.5 in 3, Telford in 2.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams have scored in every recent H2H and Telford often find the net, making yes the more likely outcome.
- All four H2H meetings had both teams scoring.
- Telford scored in 7 of 12 matches.
- Worksop scored in 7 of 10 matches.
- Recent H2H: 2-2.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Worksop's home scoring output is low, making under 1.5 the more likely outcome.
- Worksop home goals average 1.0.
- Worksop scored 0 or 1 in 4 of last 6.
- Telford away conceded 1.33 per game.
- Worksop home scoring: 5 goals in 5 matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostWorksop Town under 1.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Telford's low away scoring rate makes under 1.5 the likely result.
- Telford away goals average 0.83.
- Telford scored 0 or 1 in 5 of 6 away.
- Worksop home conceded 1.4 per game.
- Telford away scoring: 5 goals in 6.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostTelford United under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Telford's habit of scoring in this matchup makes a Worksop clean sheet unlikely.
- Telford scored in all 4 H2H.
- Telford away scored in 4 of 6.
- Worksop home clean sheets: 1 in 5.
- Telford away goals average 0.83.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTelford United to scoreEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Worksop's consistent scoring in this fixture makes a Telford clean sheet unlikely.
- Worksop scored in all 4 H2H.
- Worksop home scored 5 in 5.
- Telford away clean sheets: 2 in 6.
- Worksop failed to score in 1 of last 6.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonWorksop Town to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Even when Worksop win at home, Telford usually score, so win to nil is unlikely.
- Worksop home wins: 2 in 5.
- Telford scored in all 4 H2H.
- Worksop home clean sheets: 1 in 5.
- H2H home wins: 2-1, 3-1 (both conceded).
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals have been evenly split in recent matches, and the H2H replay had a 1-1 first half, so over 0.5 is a slight lean.
- Worksop home first half total goals: 0.6.
- Telford away first half total: 1.0.
- Worksop last 6 first half over 0.5: 3.
- Telford last 6 first half over 0.5: 3.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
First-half goals are rare for both sides, making no a strong likelihood.
- Worksop home first half GF: 0.4.
- Telford away first half GF: 0.17.
- Worksop last 6 first half BTTS: 1.
- Telford last 6 first half BTTS: 1.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Telford's recent second halves are typically low-scoring, favouring under 1.5.
- Worksop home second half total: 1.8.
- Telford away second half total: 1.17.
- Worksop last 6 second half under 1.5: 2.
- Telford last 6 second half under 1.5: 5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance57%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 1W

D2-2AFC Telford UnitedvWorksop TownSep 19, 2026FAC

W2-1Worksop TownvAFC Telford UnitedAug 15, 2026NAT

W3-1Worksop TownvAFC Telford UnitedFeb 7, 2026NAT

L2-1AFC Telford UnitedvWorksop TownOct 25, 2025NAT

3.5 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Worksop Town

D2-2AFC Telford UnitedSep 19FAC

W2-0SouthportSep 12NAT

L1-2Bedford TownSep 8NAT

W1-0MarineSep 5NAT

L0-1Oxford CityAug 31NAT

L1-3Spalding UnitedAug 29NAT

L0-3HerefordAug 22NAT

L0-1Hebburn TownAug 18NAT

W2-1AFC Telford UnitedAug 15NAT

W2-1Darlington 1883Aug 8NAT

W1-0Mickleover SportsJul 28FRI

W4-0Garforth TownJul 25FRI

W4-3South Normanton AthleticJul 14FRI

W3-1Ilkeston TownJul 11FRI

W4-2HallamJul 4FRI

Telford United

D2-2Worksop TownSep 19FAC

D0-0Harborough TownSep 12NAT

W1-0Oxford CitySep 8NAT

W1-0Scarborough AthleticSep 5NAT

L0-1Bedford TownAug 31NAT

L1-2MorecambeAug 28NAT

D1-1Hednesford TownAug 22NAT

D2-2Merthyr TownAug 18NAT

L1-2Worksop TownAug 15NAT

L1-2Brackley TownAug 8NAT

L1-3TamworthAug 1FRI

W1-0WalsallJul 25FRI

L0-3CreweJul 21FRI

L0-2SouthportApr 25NAT

D1-1Darlington 1883Apr 18NAT

Squad & Injuries

Worksop Town

24 available

Attackers9

Midfielders5

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Telford United

20 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders6

Goalkeeper1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

No

Draw

Yes

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals6 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Worksop Town

Telford United

Squad & Injuries

Worksop Town

Telford United