Truro City22 – 0Merthyr Town0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Truro have been the stronger home side this season and Merthyr have managed only four goals in five away games.

• Truro are 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses at home, scoring 1.88 and conceding 0.75 per game
• Merthyr's away record is 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses with 0.8 goals scored per game
• Merthyr have failed to score in around two of their five away matches
• The first meeting at Merthyr finished 1-1 with both goals after half-time

BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTruro CityEstimated chance46%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Truro's second-half scoring at home is their strongest period and Merthyr's away second halves are weak.

• Truro average 1.0 second-half goals at home and concede 0.38
• Merthyr average 0.4 second-half goals away and concede 0.8
• Both goals in the 1-1 first meeting came after half-time
• Truro scored twice after the break in a recent home match

BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonTruro CityEstimated chance44%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25

The read

Truro have been the stronger home side this season and Merthyr have managed only four goals in five away games. Merthyr's habit of drawing tight games and their modest away scoring point to a low-margin replay.

• Truro are 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses at home, scoring 1.88 and conceding 0.75 per game
• Merthyr's away record is 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses with 0.8 goals scored per game
• Merthyr have drawn 5 of 10 competitive matches this season
• Merthyr's away record is 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses

BetBugs · Double ChancewonTruro City or DrawEstimated chance75%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Truro carry the greater first-half threat at home, though first-half leads have been infrequent. First-half scoring is low on both sides, so the interval is most likely to arrive level.

• Truro average 0.88 first-half goals at home and 0.38 conceded
• Merthyr average 0.4 first-half goals away and 0.2 conceded
• Truro's home first halves average 1.25 goals in total
• Merthyr's away first halves average 0.6 goals in total

BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonTruro City or DrawEstimated chance80%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.15

The read

Merthyr's low away scoring and Truro's strong defence make a tight, low-scoring replay likely.

• Merthyr away matches average 1.8 goals and Truro's away opponents average well under two
• Truro concede only 0.75 per home game and 0.62 overall
• Merthyr scored 0 or 1 goal in five of their last six matches
• The first meeting finished 1-1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.15

The read

Merthyr's away goal output is low enough that one side keeping a clean sheet is the more likely shape.

• Truro concede only 0.75 per home game and 0.62 overall
• Merthyr average 0.8 goals scored per away game
• Merthyr failed to score in a share of their five away matches
• Four of Merthyr's five away games had under two goals in total

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Merthyr's away scoring is limited and Truro's home defence has been tight.

• Merthyr average 0.8 goals per away game
• Merthyr scored 0 or 1 goal in five of their last six matches
• Truro concede 0.75 per home game with 2 clean sheets in 8
• Merthyr scored 3 goals in total across their five away matches

BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonMerthyr Town under 1.5Estimated chance83%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Truro's home scoring rate makes it more likely than not that Merthyr concede.

• Truro average 1.88 goals per home match
• Truro scored in 4 of their last 6 matches
• Merthyr kept 2 clean sheets in 5 away matches, conceding 1.0 per game
• Truro failed to score in only 2 of 8 home games

BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTruro City to scoreEstimated chance73%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Combined first-half goal rates from both venues point to at least one goal before the break more often than not.

• Truro's home first halves average 1.25 goals in total
• Merthyr's away first halves average 0.6 goals in total
• Truro scored three first-half goals at home in a recent match
• The first meeting was 0-0 at half-time

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams scoring inside the first half is a rare pattern given their low early goal rates.

• Truro average 0.88 first-half goals at home; Merthyr 0.4 away
• Truro concede 0.38 first-half goals at home; Merthyr 0.2 away
• The first meeting was goalless at half-time
• Combined first-half scoring at these venues is well under two goals

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Two or more second-half goals is the less common shape for these sides.

• Truro's home second halves average 1.38 goals in total
• Merthyr's away second halves average 1.2 goals in total
• Only two of Truro's last six matches had two or more second-half goals
• Merthyr's away second halves average 1.2 goals in total