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Predictions graded

Swindon Town0Newport County2

HT 0–1Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1127%

Edges0–50%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 12–14On targetOn target 1–5CornersCorners 6–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 15:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Swindon's home form and four straight wins over Newport make them the likelier winner, but 1.85 asks for more than that record supports.

Newport have not won away this season and were level at half-time in each of their last three away matches, so the first half to finish goalless at 3.2 is the one quoted price that offers anything. A high shot count is the strongest sporting lean.

Context

Swindon Town go into this EFL Trophy tie holding the recent history of the fixture, with Newport County kept to one goal across the last four meetings.
Newport have scored once across those four meetings, and their two most recent trips to Swindon ended 0-2 and 0-4. That history is the strongest single form line in the tie, although all four were League Two matches rather than EFL Trophy ties.
- 11 February 2026: Swindon Town 2-0 Newport County (League Two).
- 14 September 2024: Swindon Town 4-0 Newport County (League Two).
- 4 October 2025: Newport County 0-1 Swindon Town; 24 January 2025: Newport County 1-2 Swindon Town - one Newport goal across the four meetings.
Swindon Town have been noticeably more productive at home than the rest of their season suggests.
The four-match home sample is small, but the split is wide: 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per home game, with both teams scoring in all four. Their one home defeat in that window came in this competition, 1-2 to Crystal Palace U21 on 15 September, and the overall nine-match record of three wins, one draw and five defeats is the caveat.
- Swindon Town home split: 3W-0D-1L in four matches from 22 August to 15 September 2026, 2.25 goals for and 1.25 against per game; both teams scored in all four.
- 15 September 2026: Swindon Town 1-2 Crystal Palace U21 (EFL Trophy) at home.
- Swindon Town overall: 3W-1D-5L in nine competitive matches from 8 August to 19 September 2026.
Newport County's away results are the least productive part of their record this season.
Across those four away matches Newport have scored two goals in total, kept one clean sheet and averaged 0.25 first-half goals and 0.75 second-half goals. Their overall competitive record is one win, three draws and three defeats in seven games, so the away split is the part of the record that has gone against them.
- Newport County away split: 0W-1D-3L in four matches from 22 August to 19 September 2026, 1.0 goals for and 2.0 against per game.
- Two goals scored across those four away matches, with one clean sheet.
- Newport County overall: 1W-3D-3L in seven competitive matches from 15 August to 19 September 2026.
Newport County's goals-against record is concentrated almost entirely in the second half.
Newport have been difficult to break down before the interval and much more open afterwards, a pattern that runs through their away games. Swindon score 1.5 second-half goals per home match across four home games and concede 0.5, so the closing period looks like the likelier source of goals.
- Newport County overall competitive sample: seven matches from 15 August to 19 September 2026.
- Goals conceded: 0.14 per game in the first half and 1.43 per game in the second half.
- Goals scored: 0.71 per first half and 0.71 per second half in the same seven-match sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Swindon Town or Draw

1.29fair 1.30

BetBugs 77% · Market 77.5%

−0.5ppshort

Swindon's home record and the recent head-to-head run both favour them against a Newport side still without an away win. Newport's habit of tight, low-scoring games makes a stalemate the main alternative to a Swindon home win.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

−4.9ppshort

Both teams' recent scorelines have tended to land on or above three goals, helped by Swindon's open home games.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

−6.7ppshort

Swindon concede regularly at home and Newport have scored in half their away games, so both scoring is the slightly stronger side of the market.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Swindon Town

1.85fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 54.1%

−4.1ppshort

Swindon's home record and the recent head-to-head run both favour them against a Newport side still without an away win.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.85
The read
Swindon's home record and the recent head-to-head run both favour them against a Newport side still without an away win.
- Swindon are 3W-0D-1L in home matches, scoring 2.25 goals per home game.
- Newport are 0W-1D-3L away, conceding 2.0 goals per away game.
- Swindon have won all four of the listed head-to-head meetings.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSwindon TownEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have frequently reached half-time without a lead, and Newport's first-half defence has been hard to break.
- Swindon were level at half-time in three of their last six matches.
- Newport were level at half-time in three of their last six matches.
- Newport concede 0.14 first-half goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Swindon's home second halves have been strong while Newport's away second halves have been their weakest period.
- Swindon score 1.5 second-half goals at home and concede 0.5.
- Newport concede 1.75 second-half goals per away match.
- Newport lost the second half in three of their last four away matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSwindon TownEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Swindon's home record and the recent head-to-head run both favour them against a Newport side still without an away win. Newport's habit of tight, low-scoring games makes a stalemate the main alternative to a Swindon home win.
- Swindon are 3W-0D-1L in home matches, scoring 2.25 goals per home game.
- Newport are 0W-1D-3L away, conceding 2.0 goals per away game.
- Newport have drawn three of seven competitive matches, including two of their last three.
- Newport's away matches have produced 0-0 and 0-1 scorelines in two of the last three.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSwindon Town or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Swindon are the likelier side to lead at the break, but their first halves have often been slow and Newport rarely concede early. Both teams have frequently reached half-time without a lead, and Newport's first-half defence has been hard to break.
- Swindon average 0.75 first-half goals at home.
- Newport have conceded one first-half goal in their last six matches.
- Swindon were level at half-time in three of their last six matches.
- Newport were level at half-time in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostSwindon Town or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams' recent scorelines have tended to land on or above three goals, helped by Swindon's open home games.
- Swindon home matches average 3.5 total goals; Newport away matches average 3.0.
- Four of Swindon's last five competitive matches produced three or more goals.
- Swindon's matches average 3.0 total goals, Newport's 3.0.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Swindon concede regularly at home and Newport have scored in half their away games, so both scoring is the slightly stronger side of the market.
- Both teams scored in all four of Swindon's home matches.
- Both teams scored in four of Newport's seven competitive matches.
- Newport found the net in two of their four away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Swindon have been much more productive at home than on the road, and two goals is a regular home output for them.
- Swindon average 2.25 goals per home match.
- Swindon scored three goals in each of their last two home league matches.
- Swindon have scored two or more in two of their three most recent home games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSwindon Town over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Newport's away scoring has been one goal at most in three of four matches, making a low away total the likelier outcome.
- Newport average 1.0 goals per away match.
- Newport's last two away matches finished 0-1 and 0-0.
- Newport have scored five goals in seven competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostNewport County under 1.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A first-half goal has been the common outcome in Swindon's games, and Newport have also been involved in early scoring in half their recent matches.
- Five of Swindon's last six matches produced a first-half goal.
- Swindon's matches average 1.33 first-half goals in total.
- Newport's matches average 0.86 first-half goals in total.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams scoring before half-time has been the exception rather than the rule for these two sides.
- Nine of the last 12 combined matches had at least one team failing to score in the first half.
- Newport have conceded one first-half goal in their last six matches.
- Swindon have conceded six first-half goals in their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been the higher-scoring period for both teams, especially with Newport's away games opening up late.
- Swindon's home second halves average 2.0 goals in total.
- Newport's away second halves average 2.5 goals in total.
- Both teams scored after half-time in four of Swindon's last six matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opponents win plenty of corners against both sides, which supports a total just above the line.
- Swindon's matches average 11.1 total corners, with opponents taking 7.4 per game.
- Newport's matches average 10.0 total corners.
- Newport's opponents average 6.75 corners per away match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams give up a high volume of shots, so the combined match total should comfortably clear this line.
- Swindon's matches average 24.4 total shots; Newport's average 25.7.
- Opponents average 19.0 shots per Newport away match.
- Swindon allow 15.7 shots per match, Newport 15.9.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 18.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Swindon's home matches have been low on bookings, which offsets Newport's own card habit in an EFL Trophy group game.
- Swindon's home matches average 2.0 total cards.
- Swindon's opponents average 0.56 yellow cards per match.
- Newport's away matches average 4.0 cards including opponent bookings.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance53%

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W2-0Swindon TownvNewport CountyFeb 11, 2026LEA

W0-1Newport CountyvSwindon TownOct 4, 2025LEA

W1-2Newport CountyvSwindon TownJan 24, 2025LEA

W4-0Swindon TownvNewport CountySep 14, 2024LEA

L2-1Newport CountyvSwindon TownFeb 3, 2024LEA

Swindon Town: 3 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Swindon Town

L0-1Salford CitySep 19LEA

L1-2Crystal Palace U21Sep 15EFL

L0-4YorkSep 12LEA

W3-1ColchesterSep 5LEA

W3-1Port ValeSep 1LEA

L0-3OldhamAug 29LEA

W2-1CheltenhamAug 22LEA

D0-0NorthamptonAug 15LEA

L2-3CardiffAug 8LEA

W4-1Forest GreenAug 1FRI

W2-1Leyton OrientJul 28FRI

L1-3Bristol CityJul 25FRI

L1-5Crystal PalaceJul 18FRI

L0-1Chippenham TownJul 14FRI

W4-0Swindon SupermarineJul 4FRI

Newport County

D0-0Accrington STSep 19LEA

D1-1Fleetwood TownSep 12LEA

L0-1NorthamptonSep 5LEA

L1-2Salford CitySep 1LEA

D2-2TranmereAug 29LEA

L3-5Bristol RoversAug 22LEA

W3-0RochdaleAug 15LEA

L1-4AS RomaAug 4FRI

W2-1Yeovil TownAug 1FRI

L0-4ReadingJul 28FRI

D2-2Bath CityJul 25FRI

D0-0Bristol CityJul 21FRI

L1-2Gloucester CityJul 11FRI

W5-0Newport CityJul 8FRI

W3-0Bristol Manor FarmJul 4FRI

Squad & Injuries

Swindon Town

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders12

Goalkeeper2

Newport County

29 available

Attackers10

Midfielders6

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Swindon Town or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Swindon Town

Result0 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 7 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Swindon Town

Newport County

Squad & Injuries

Swindon Town

Newport County