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Predictions graded

Oldham Athletic1Fleetwood Town0

HT 0–0Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions13–193%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 8–9On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 3–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 17:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Oldham's home record meets Fleetwood's defensive numbers in the EFL Trophy, with the last three meetings all finishing 1-1.

A tight, low-scoring tie is the likeliest shape. Four quoted prices carry enough to be worth taking: Fleetwood to win or draw at 1.7, the draw at 4.0, the half-time draw at 2.4 and under 2.5 goals at 2.25. Oldham to win at 2.05 and Fleetwood to win at 2.8 do not.

Context

Neither side has found a way to pull clear of the other in their last three attempts.
Fleetwood have drawn four of ten competitive matches since 8 August, while Oldham have drawn only one of 11 since 18 April, so the shared pattern is more Fleetwood's habit than Oldham's. In the 1 September meeting at Fleetwood, the home side trailed 1-0 at half-time and levelled after the break, and the two earlier 1-1s also ended level. Three draws do not guarantee a fourth, but they explain why a tight, low-scoring tie is easy to picture.
- 1 September 2026, League Two: Fleetwood Town 1-1 Oldham Athletic
- 14 February 2026, League Two: Oldham Athletic 1-1 Fleetwood Town
- 23 August 2025, League Two: Fleetwood Town 1-1 Oldham Athletic
Fleetwood's defensive record is the main reason this tie looks low-scoring.
Six clean sheets in ten matches is a strong base, and Oldham's 11 competitive matches since 18 April have averaged 2.73 goals combined. The caveat is where Fleetwood play: their four away matches from 15 August to 19 September produced one win, two draws and one defeat while conceding 1.5 goals per game. Oldham's home form - three wins and three clean sheets in five - is what keeps this from looking like a straightforward away win.
- 10 competitive matches from 8 August to 19 September 2026: 5 wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat
- 6 clean sheets and an average of 0.7 goals conceded per match across that sample
- An average of 3.4 shots on target per match, against 3.2 conceded
Oldham's season on their own ground looks nothing like their season as a whole.
Their 11 competitive matches since 18 April read three wins, one draw and seven defeats, and the six-match away split is winless, so the home results are carrying a thin record. The five-match home sample also straddles the end of one season and the start of another, which limits how much weight it deserves. It still matters here because Fleetwood concede 1.5 goals per away game.
- 5 home matches from 18 April to 12 September 2026: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats
- An average of 0.8 goals conceded per home match, with 3 clean sheets
- An average of 5.0 shots on target per home match, against 3.4 conceded
Fleetwood arrive with one loss and six clean sheets behind them.
The Barnet game is the one recent match where their shot count did not match the scoreline: 15 attempts to Barnet's 13, but only four on target to six. They followed a 1-0 home win over Sheffield United in the League Cup on 16 September with that defeat three days later. One result does not define a side, and the away record of 1.5 goals conceded per game remains the softest part of their season.
- 19 September 2026, League Two away at Barnet: 1-3 defeat, the only loss in 10 competitive matches since 8 August
- Shots on 19 September: Fleetwood 15, Barnet 13; on target: Fleetwood 4, Barnet 6

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Oldham's home results are far better than their overall record, and Fleetwood have conceded more per game on the road than at home.
- Oldham home split: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses in 5 games, 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per home match
- Oldham overall in 11 competitive matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses, 1.27 scored and 1.45 conceded per game
- Fleetwood away split: 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss, 1.25 scored and 1.5 conceded per away game
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOldham AthleticEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes a level half-time score the single most likely outcome.
- Oldham's first-half totals are 0.55 scored and 0.55 conceded per game
- Fleetwood's first-half split is 0.8 scored and 0.4 conceded per game
- Oldham's home first-half record is 0.4 scored and 0.6 conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Oldham score the bulk of their home goals after the break, and Fleetwood rarely score in the second half away.
- Oldham's home second-half split: 1.6 goals for and 0.2 against per game
- Oldham overall second-half: 0.73 scored and 0.91 conceded per game
- Fleetwood's away second-half split: 0.5 scored and 0.75 conceded
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonOldham AthleticEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Oldham's home results are far better than their overall record, and Fleetwood have conceded more per game on the road than at home. Fleetwood's overall record and defensive record are clearly stronger than Oldham's, which offsets the away trip.
- Oldham home split: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses in 5 games, 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per home match
- Oldham overall in 11 competitive matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses, 1.27 scored and 1.45 conceded per game
- Fleetwood: 5 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss in 10 competitive matches, conceding 0.7 per game with 6 clean sheets
- Fleetwood have scored 1.4 per game overall while Oldham concede 1.45 per game
BetBugs · Double ChancewonOldham Athletic or Fleetwood TownEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Neither side starts quickly, so a narrow first-half lead for the home team is only slightly more likely than the alternatives. Low first-half scoring on both sides makes a level half-time score the single most likely outcome.
- Oldham average 0.55 first-half goals for and 0.55 against across 11 competitive matches
- Oldham's home first-half split is 0.4 goals for and 0.6 against per game
- Oldham's first-half totals are 0.55 scored and 0.55 conceded per game
- Fleetwood's first-half split is 0.8 scored and 0.4 conceded per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonOldham Athletic or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Fleetwood's defence and the recent 1-1 pattern make two or fewer goals the more likely outcome.
- Fleetwood have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches
- Oldham's 11 competitive matches average 2.73 combined goals
- The last three head-to-head matches all ended 1-1
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Oldham's scoring output is modest and Fleetwood concede little, so fewer than two home goals is the likelier outcome.
- Oldham average 1.27 goals per game across 11 competitive matches
- Fleetwood concede 0.7 per game with 6 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches
- Oldham's home split total is 5 goals in 5 matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonOldham Athletic under 1.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fleetwood's away scoring rate sits near one goal, and Oldham's home defence has been stingy.
- Fleetwood average 1.25 goals per away match
- Oldham concede 0.8 per home game and have 3 clean sheets in 5 home matches
- Fleetwood scored 9 goals across 10 competitive matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFleetwood Town under 1.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Both teams' first halves produce around one goal on average, so at least one before the break is the likely case.
- Oldham's combined first-half goals average 1.09 per game
- Fleetwood's combined first-half goals average 1.2 per game
- Oldham home first-half totals: 0.4 for, 0.6 against per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes two early goals unlikely.
- Oldham's first-half goals for and against both average 0.55
- Fleetwood concede 0.4 first-half goals per game
- Oldham concede 0.6 first-half goals per home game
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance79%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
The two teams' corner figures average below the line, making eleven or fewer corners the more likely outcome.
- Oldham's combined corner average per match is 9.18
- Fleetwood's combined corner average per match is 10.6
- Oldham's home corner split is 5.6 for and 3.6 against
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Team shot averages land marginally below 25.5, giving the under a slight lean.
- Oldham's combined shot average per match is 25.36
- Fleetwood's combined shot average per match is 24.8
- Oldham's home games average 23.2 combined shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 25.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fleetwood's low on-target output balances Oldham's higher figure, giving the under a small lean.
- Fleetwood's combined shots-on-target average is 6.6 per match
- Oldham's combined shots-on-target average is 8.72 per match
- Fleetwood average 3.4 shots on target per game overall
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' booking averages sit below five per match, giving under the edge.
- Oldham's combined card average per match is 3.64
- Fleetwood's combined card average per match is 4.3
- Oldham's home matches average 1.4 yellows for them
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

D1-1Fleetwood TownvOldhamSep 1, 2026LEA

D1-1OldhamvFleetwood TownFeb 14, 2026LEA

D1-1Fleetwood TownvOldhamAug 23, 2025LEA

L5-2Fleetwood TownvOldhamNov 13, 2019EFL

W1-2OldhamvFleetwood TownDec 26, 2017LEA

3.2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Oldham Athletic

L0-2RochdaleSep 19LEA

L1-2ChesterfieldSep 12LEA

L0-2TranmereSep 5LEA

D1-1Fleetwood TownSep 1LEA

W3-0Swindon TownAug 29LEA

L1-2ColchesterAug 22LEA

W2-0Port ValeAug 15LEA

L0-2Stoke CityAug 8LEA

W4-0Sheffield WednesdayAug 1FRI

L0-1Stockport CountyJul 28FRI

L1-3HuddersfieldJul 24FRI

L1-3BoltonJul 21FRI

W3-0Accrington STMay 2LEA

L2-3Newport CountyApr 25LEA

L1-2Salford CityApr 18LEA

Fleetwood Town

L1-3BarnetSep 19LEA

W1-0Sheffield UtdSep 16LEA

D1-1Newport CountySep 12LEA

W2-0ShrewsburySep 5LEA

D1-1OldhamSep 1LEA

D2-2GrimsbyAug 29LEA

W4-0ShrewsburyAug 25LEA

D0-0GillinghamAug 22LEA

W1-0ChesterfieldAug 15LEA

W1-0ChesterfieldAug 8LEA

L0-1HartlepoolAug 1FRI

D1-1BoltonJul 28FRI

W2-1HuddersfieldJul 21FRI

W1-0SouthportJul 18FRI

W2-0ChesterJul 14FRI

Squad & Injuries

Oldham Athletic

26 available

Attackers4

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Fleetwood Town

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Draw or Fleetwood Town

Draw

Draw

Oldham Athletic or Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Under 10.5

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Oldham Athletic

Fleetwood Town

Squad & Injuries

Oldham Athletic

Fleetwood Town