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Milton Keynes Dons4Crawley Town1

HT 2–0Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges0–20%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 17–13On targetOn target 7–5CornersCorners 4–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 17:21 · Europe/Bucharest

A division up but still without a win: MK Dons have drawn seven of nine competitive matches, including all three at home, while Crawley have lost four of their last six league games.

MK Dons are the likelier winners, but a level finish has a strong case — the draw at 5.5 and Crawley or the draw at 3.25 both offer something. MK Dons at 1.33 to win does not.

Context

MK Dons have been difficult to beat without ever converting a level game into a win.
Both teams scored in seven of those nine matches and MK Dons kept two clean sheets, so the profile is of tight, low-margin games rather than one-sided ones. Seven draws leave matches open late, which is why a level result has a live case in this tie. The sample is nine competitive matches, with the six friendlies in the wider 15-match window excluded.
- MK Dons competitive record, 2 May to 17 September 2026: 0 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats from 9 matches.
- They scored 7 and conceded 7 across those nine matches.
- Both teams scored in 7 of the 9 matches; MK Dons kept 2 clean sheets.
These clubs are familiar opponents: their last two meetings were a 1-1 draw at Crawley in August 2025 and a 0-0 draw at Stadium MK in February 2026, and both sit in the southern section of this season's EFL Trophy group stage. Their only knockout meeting also came at this ground, in the 2024 play-off semi-final, where the prize was a promotion place rather than a group position. Knowing the clubs have met repeatedly in the last two seasons frames the tie as a familiar match-up rather than a new one. The limitation is the two-year gap and the different format: that 2024 result came from two-legged knockout football with squads that have since turned over, so it is background rather than a form line.
- Crawley Town beat MK Dons 3-0 at home on 7 May 2024 and 5-1 at Stadium MK on 11 May 2024 in the League Two play-off semi-final, an 8-1 aggregate win.
- The clubs met twice in League Two in 2025-26: a 1-1 draw at Crawley on 19 August 2025 and a 0-0 draw at Stadium MK on 17 February 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 17:18 · Europe/BucharestHead-to-head record, Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town (API-Football fixture archive)v3.football.api-sports.io · 22 Sep 2026
Grimsby scored twice before half-time and the shot count shows a match Crawley spent chasing rather than controlling. It is a single game rather than a trend, but it is their most recent competitive outing and it came three days before this tie. Crawley also collected four yellow cards in the match.
- Crawley lost 0-2 at Grimsby in League Two on 19 September 2026.
- Crawley recorded 12 shots with 1 on target; Grimsby recorded 22 shots with 11 on target.
- Both Grimsby goals came in the first half; Crawley received 4 yellow cards.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

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Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
MK Dons play a level higher and at home, while Crawley have lost four of their last six league games.
- MK Dons are a division above Crawley in this 2026-27 season
- MK Dons competitive record: 0 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses in 9
- Crawley away: 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 7
- Crawley have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMilton Keynes DonsEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half scoring is low, making a level half-time score the most likely single result.
- MK Dons average 0.44 first-half goals for and 1.0 against
- Crawley average 0.42 first-half goals for and 0.75 against
- Both sides' first-half scoring totals are below one goal per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is low and evenly matched, so a level second half is the most likely single outcome.
- MK Dons average 0.67 second-half goals for and 0.67 against
- Crawley average 0.83 second-half goals for and 0.83 against
- Both teams' second-half goal differences are close to zero
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
MK Dons play a level higher and at home, while Crawley have lost four of their last six league games. Both recent meetings finished level and MK Dons have drawn almost every match this season.
- MK Dons are a division above Crawley in this 2026-27 season
- MK Dons competitive record: 0 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses in 9
- MK Dons have drawn 7 of 9 competitive matches and all 3 at home
- The last two head-to-head meetings were draws (1-1 and 0-0)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMilton Keynes Dons or DrawEstimated chance71%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side scores often, and MK Dons' home matches have been low-scoring.
- MK Dons have scored 7 goals in 9 competitive matches
- Crawley have scored 6 in 12 competitive matches
- MK Dons home games averaged 1.33 goals in total (3 matches)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
MK Dons rarely keep opponents out and Crawley have found the net in most recent games.
- Both teams scored in 7 of MK Dons' 9 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 4 of Crawley's last 6 league matches
- Crawley scored in 4 of their last 6 league matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
MK Dons have conceded in seven of nine matches, so a shutout is the weaker outcome.
- MK Dons kept only 2 clean sheets in 9 competitive matches
- Crawley scored in 4 of their last 6 league matches
- MK Dons conceded 7 goals in 9 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCrawley Town to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
MK Dons score in most matches and Crawley have one away clean sheet all season.
- MK Dons scored in 7 of 9 competitive matches
- Crawley conceded in 6 of 7 away matches
- MK Dons average 1.11 goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMilton Keynes Dons to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams leak first-half goals, and MK Dons have gone behind early repeatedly.
- MK Dons concede 1.0 first-half goal per competitive match
- Crawley's last six matches produced 11 first-half goals in total
- Crawley conceded two first-half goals at Grimsby on 19 September
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring in both sides' recent matches sits at or below one and a half goals.
- MK Dons' last six league matches averaged 1.5 second-half goals
- Crawley's last six league matches averaged 1.17 second-half goals
- Both teams average fewer than one second-half goal scored per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches regularly produce double-figure corner totals.
- MK Dons matches average 11.2 corners in total (4.9 for, 6.3 against)
- Crawley matches average 10.0 corners in total (4.0 for, 6.0 against)
- Crawley's last six matches produced 53 corners in total
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches see a high volume of shots at both ends.
- MK Dons matches average 30.1 shots in total (13.7 for, 16.4 against)
- Crawley matches average 27.4 shots in total (12.6 for, 14.8 against)
- Crawley's last six matches produced 169 shots in total
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 26.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target sit just above the line in both teams' matches.
- MK Dons matches average 8.8 shots on target in total (3.6 for, 5.2 against)
- Crawley matches average 8.1 shots on target in total (3.8 for, 4.3 against)
- MK Dons' last six matches produced 50 shots on target in total
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
MK Dons' matches have produced few bookings, pulling the combined total below the line.
- MK Dons average 1.6 yellow cards and their opponents 1.9 per match
- MK Dons' three home matches produced only 8 yellow cards in total
- MK Dons' last six league matches averaged 3.0 yellow cards in total
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 4.5Estimated chance53%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D0-0Milton Keynes DonsvCrawley TownFeb 17, 2026LEA

D1-1Crawley TownvMilton Keynes DonsAug 19, 2025LEA

L1-5Milton Keynes DonsvCrawley TownMay 11, 2024LEA

L3-0Crawley TownvMilton Keynes DonsMay 7, 2024LEA

W2-0Milton Keynes DonsvCrawley TownDec 29, 2023LEA

Milton Keynes Dons: 2 clean sheetsCrawley Town: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

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