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Predictions graded

Edinburgh City1Dundee United B0

HT 1–0Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges4–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 16:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Edinburgh City should have too much for Dundee United B in this Challenge Cup tie, but a 1.20 win price asks for more than a side conceding two goals a home game can justify; 1.48 to lead at half-time and 1.13 for a first-half goal are short too.

The one price with something behind it is 3.75 for under 2.5 goals.

Context

Edinburgh City's strongest phase so far this season has been the opening 45 minutes.
Edinburgh City do most of their scoring before the interval, averaging 1.40 first-half goals against 0.47 conceded, then slow to 0.47 scored and 1.13 conceded after the break across 15 competitive matches. An early goal is therefore the likeliest route to control for the home side. It also means a half-time lead would not settle the tie, because the second half has been their weaker half all season.
- Edinburgh City: 1.40 first-half goals scored and 0.47 conceded per game across 15 competitive matches (11 Jul–19 Sep 2026)
- Edinburgh City: 0.47 second-half goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game over the same 15 matches
- At home only, across 8 matches (11 Jul–12 Sep 2026): 1.375 first-half goals for and 0.875 against, 0.50 for and 1.125 against after the break
Edinburgh City have shown they can turn a home league game into a rout when the game opens up.
That afternoon is the loudest argument against a quiet, low-scoring tie, since Edinburgh City turned a home league game into a rout. Five of the seven goals came before half-time, which fits their season-long pattern of front-loading. The three conceded after the break are the counterweight, and the reason a 7-3 sits alongside 1-1 and 1-0 results in their last six matches.
- 12 Sep 2026: Edinburgh City 7-3 Stirling Albion (League Two, home), with 5 goals for and 0 against in the first half
- Edinburgh City's last six competitive matches (25 Aug–19 Sep 2026) include a 1-1 draw, a 1-0 win and a 2-3 defeat
Dundee United B's evidence base is a long away-only sample rather than a snapshot of current form.
The record covers five years and 13 away matches, so it describes how Dundee United B have fared on the road rather than how this group is playing now. No home matches are included at all, which is a real limitation on the sample. Even allowing for that, ten defeats in 13 with under a goal scored per game is the backdrop Edinburgh City meet.
- Dundee United B: 13 competitive matches tracked from 10 Aug 2021 to 8 Sep 2026, all away, 3W-0D-10L
- Dundee United B average 0.85 goals scored and 2.77 conceded per game across those 13 matches
- Dundee United B failed to score in 8 of the 13 tracked matches and kept one clean sheet
It is the away side's most recent tracked match and the one recent result that shows them scoring and winning.
It is their most recent tracked match, a cup tie on the road that they won 3-2. The two first-half goals run against the idea that they never threaten early, and the five-goal total shows their ties can open up. Set against the heavy away defeats in the same 2026 cup run, though, the range of outcomes remains wide.
- 8 Sep 2026: Formartine United 2-3 Dundee United B (Challenge Cup, away), with 2 goals for and 0 against in the first half
- Same entry: 1 goal for and 2 against after the break, giving a 3-2 away win

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.13fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 88.5%

−6.5ppshort

Edinburgh City have scored before the break in five of their last six matches, making a goalless first half unlikely.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Edinburgh City

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

−13.3ppshort

Edinburgh City are a settled senior side scoring freely at home, while Dundee United B have lost ten of thirteen tracked matches and concede around three goals a game.

First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Edinburgh City

1.48fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 67.6%

−14.6ppshort

Edinburgh City start quickly and have scored in the first half of five of their last six matches, while Dundee United B rarely lead at the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Edinburgh City are a settled senior side scoring freely at home, while Dundee United B have lost ten of thirteen tracked matches and concede around three goals a game.
- Edinburgh City: 8W-3D-4L in 15 competitive matches, 1.87 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game
- At home: 4W-2D-2L in 8, 1.88 scored and 2.00 conceded per game
- Dundee United B: 3W-0D-10L in 13 tracked matches, 0.85 scored and 2.77 conceded per game
- Dundee United B 2026 cup ties: 3-2 win at Formartine, 0-2 at Cove Rangers, 0-5 at Clachnacuddin
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEdinburgh CityEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Edinburgh City start quickly and have scored in the first half of five of their last six matches, while Dundee United B rarely lead at the break.
- Edinburgh City average 1.40 first-half goals scored and 0.47 conceded
- Dundee United B average 0.38 first-half goals and 1.31 conceded
- Edinburgh City scored before half-time in five of their last six
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonEdinburgh CityEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Edinburgh City create more overall and face a side that concedes steadily after the break, but their own second halves are less dominant than their first.
- Edinburgh City score 0.47 and concede 1.13 second-half goals per game
- At home they score 0.50 and concede 1.13 after the break
- Dundee United B concede 1.46 second-half goals per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostEdinburgh CityEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Edinburgh City are a settled senior side scoring freely at home, while Dundee United B have lost ten of thirteen tracked matches and concede around three goals a game. A cup tie at this level can stay level for long spells, and Edinburgh City have already been held twice at home this season.
- Edinburgh City: 8W-3D-4L in 15 competitive matches, 1.87 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game
- At home: 4W-2D-2L in 8, 1.88 scored and 2.00 conceded per game
- Edinburgh City have drawn 3 of 15, including 1-1 with Queen of the South in this competition
- Dundee United B have drawn none of their 13 tracked matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonEdinburgh City or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Edinburgh City start quickly and have scored in the first half of five of their last six matches, while Dundee United B rarely lead at the break. Edinburgh City's strong first-half scoring makes a level opening period the second most likely outcome.
- Edinburgh City average 1.40 first-half goals scored and 0.47 conceded
- Dundee United B average 0.38 first-half goals and 1.31 conceded
- Edinburgh City were level at half-time in one of their last six
- Dundee United B were level at the break in two of their last six
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonEdinburgh City or DrawEstimated chance84%

Goals5 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches produce plenty of goals, with Edinburgh City scoring freely at home and Dundee United B conceding heavily.
- Edinburgh City's 15 matches average 3.47 goals in total; Dundee United B's 13 average 3.62
- Edinburgh City home games: 1.88 scored and 2.00 conceded per game
- Dundee United B have conceded two or more in five of their last six matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dundee United B are blanked in most of their tracked matches, which makes one clean sheet the likelier outcome.
- Dundee United B failed to score in 8 of 13 tracked matches
- Edinburgh City kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches
- Dundee United B average 0.85 goals per game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Edinburgh City's steady home scoring and Dundee United B's heavy concession rate point to at least two home goals.
- Edinburgh City score 1.87 per game overall and 1.88 per home game
- Dundee United B concede 2.77 per game
- Edinburgh City have scored two or more in three of their last six
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostEdinburgh City over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dundee United B have been held to one goal or fewer in almost all of their tracked matches.
- Dundee United B scored in only 5 of 13 tracked matches
- They failed to score in four of their last six
- Their average is 0.85 goals per game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonDundee United B under 1.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Edinburgh City's home games have usually produced at least one goal for the opposition.
- Edinburgh City have conceded in 6 of 8 home matches
- They conceded 2.00 goals per home game
- Dundee United B scored in their most recent cup tie
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDundee United B to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dundee United B concede in almost every tracked match, and Edinburgh City score in most of theirs.
- Edinburgh City scored in 12 of 15 matches
- Dundee United B conceded in 12 of 13 tracked matches
- Dundee United B concede 2.77 goals per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonEdinburgh City to scoreEstimated chance89%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Edinburgh City's home record shows they usually concede, and the away side does find the net occasionally.
- Edinburgh City have kept 2 clean sheets in 8 home matches
- Dundee United B scored in 5 of 13 tracked matches
- Edinburgh City's home games average 2.00 goals conceded
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Edinburgh City have scored before the break in five of their last six matches, making a goalless first half unlikely.
- Edinburgh City average 1.40 first-half goals; Dundee United B average 0.38
- Edinburgh City scored before half-time in five of their last six
- Dundee United B conceded first-half goals in three of their last six
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dundee United B barely score before half-time, and Edinburgh City's first-half defence is the tightest part of their game.
- Dundee United B scored first-half goals in one of their last six
- Edinburgh City concede 0.47 first-half goals per game
- Dundee United B average 0.38 first-half goals per game
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede more after the break, and Dundee United B's recent matches have regularly produced late goals.
- Edinburgh City's second halves average 1.60 goals; Dundee United B's 1.92
- Five of Dundee United B's last six matches had two or more second-half goals
- Edinburgh City concede 1.13 second-half goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance53%

Recent Form

Edinburgh City

W3-1Kelty HeartsSep 19LEA

W7-3Stirling AlbionSep 12LEA

D1-1Queen of the SouthSep 8CHA

L2-3ClydeSep 5LEA

D1-1Forfar AthleticAug 28LEA

W1-0Hamilton AcademicalAug 25CHA

W1-0Annan AthleticAug 22LEA

W3-0DumbartonAug 15LEA

W3-1CowdenbeathAug 11CHA

D2-2SpartansAug 8LEA

L0-5Elgin CityAug 1LEA

W2-0StranraerJul 21LEA

L0-2Ayr UtdJul 18LEA

W2-0Alloa AthleticJul 14LEA

L0-5FalkirkJul 11LEA

Dundee United B

W3-2Formartine UnitedSep 8CHA

L0-2Cove RangersAug 25CHA

L0-5ClachnacuddinAug 11CHA

L0-6Inverness CTNov 11CHA

L1-5Cove RangersOct 11CHA

L0-1SpartansSep 23CHA

L0-3PeterheadSep 6CHA

L1-3Elgin CityAug 26CHA

W3-0Stirling AlbionAug 12CHA

L0-4Hamilton AcademicalSep 3CHA

W3-1Buckie ThistleJul 30CHA

L0-1Elgin CityAug 9CHA

L0-3StenhousemuirAug 10CHA

Squad & Injuries

Edinburgh City

30 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper5

Dundee United B

3 available

Attackers0

Midfielders1

Defenders2

Goalkeeper0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Edinburgh City

Edinburgh City

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 10 landed

Recent Form

Edinburgh City

Dundee United B

Squad & Injuries

Edinburgh City

Dundee United B