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Predictions graded

Alloa Athletic4Hibernian B1

HT 1–0Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions12–380%

Edges0–40%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 16:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Alloa's strong home record meets a Hibernian B side whose three 2026 Challenge Cup ties all ended in defeat without a goal.

Alloa to win, or to be ahead at half-time, are the likeliest single outcomes, but the 1.17 win price gives little back. Four quoted prices carry potential value: Under 2.5 goals at 3.4, the draw at 7, a goalless first half at 4.33 and a level first half at 3.2.

Context

Alloa's home sample covers under two months, but it is the most recent and most relevant form supplied for this fixture.
Three clean sheets in six home matches and under a goal conceded per game is why a low-scoring read on this tie has support; the one home defeat in the run came against East Kilbride on 19 September, three days before this tie.
- 6 home matches tracked from 2026-08-01 to 2026-09-19: W3 D2 L1
- 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per home match
- Three clean sheets and three matches in which both teams scored
The record spans seven years of Hibernian B fixtures rather than a single season, so it describes a long-running pattern more than current form.
The sample is small and stretched over years, but it does show a side that loses far more often than it wins, and Alloa's home form meets an opponent with nine defeats in the 13 logged matches.
- 13 competitive matches tracked from 2019-08-06 to 2026-09-08: W2 D2 L9
- 1.46 goals scored and 2.23 conceded per match across those 13 matches
- Both teams scored in six of the 13; Hibernian B kept two clean sheets
The ten-match away window covers three years of away fixtures, so it is background rather than a snapshot of this month's form.
Alloa have scored 1.67 goals per home match across six home games since August 2026, and an away side conceding two per away match faces the harder evening; the wide date range is the reason to treat the sample lightly.
- 10 away matches tracked from 2023-08-15 to 2026-09-08: W2 D2 L6
- 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away match
- Two clean sheets in those ten away matches
It is one of only two wins in Hibernian B's ten tracked away matches, and it came in this same competition.
That result is the clearest warning against assuming Hibernian B will stay quiet: a Challenge Cup away tie has already turned into a four-goal night for them, so a low-scoring read on this tie carries real risk.
- 11 October 2025: Peterhead 0-4 Hibernian B, Challenge Cup, away
- Half-time 3-0 to Hibernian B, with one further goal after the break

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Alloa's home form and Hibernian B's poor recent Challenge Cup results point to the stronger home side.
- Alloa home split: W3 D2 L1, 1.67 goals for and 0.67 against per game
- Hibernian B overall: W2 D2 L9, 1.46 goals for and 2.23 against per game
- Hibernian B lost their last three 2026 Challenge Cup games 0-1, 0-1 and 0-4
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlloa AthleticEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Alloa's home first-half scoring and defence give them the better chance to lead at the break.
- Alloa home first half: 0.83 goals for and 0.17 against per game
- Hibernian B away first half: 0.9 goals for and 0.7 against per game
- Alloa led at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonAlloa AthleticEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Alloa's home second-half scoring and Hibernian B's away second-half conceding give Alloa the better chance after the break.
- Alloa home second half: 0.83 goals for and 0.5 against per game
- Hibernian B away second half: 0.6 goals for and 1.3 against per game
- Alloa home: 3 wins in 6 matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonAlloa AthleticEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alloa's home form and Hibernian B's poor recent Challenge Cup results point to the stronger home side. Draw is plausible because Alloa's home record includes two draws and Hibernian B have held teams in some cup games.
- Alloa home split: W3 D2 L1, 1.67 goals for and 0.67 against per game
- Hibernian B overall: W2 D2 L9, 1.46 goals for and 2.23 against per game
- Alloa have drawn four of 13 overall and two of six home matches
- Hibernian B have drawn two of 13 overall
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAlloa Athletic or DrawEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alloa's home first-half scoring and defence give them the better chance to lead at the break. A level first half is plausible because Hibernian B have started cautiously and Alloa's home first-half defence is strong.
- Alloa home first half: 0.83 goals for and 0.17 against per game
- Hibernian B away first half: 0.9 goals for and 0.7 against per game
- Hibernian B's last three 2026 Challenge Cup first halves: 0-1, 0-0, 0-0
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAlloa Athletic or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals7 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.40
The read
Alloa's home matches have often been low-scoring, and Hibernian B have struggled to score recently.
- Alloa home: 1.67 goals for and 0.67 against per game
- Hibernian B's last three 2026 Challenge Cup games had 1, 1 and 4 goals
- Alloa kept three clean sheets in six home matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Alloa's home clean-sheet rate and Hibernian B's recent scoring problems favour at least one team not scoring.
- Alloa home: 3 clean sheets in 6 matches
- Hibernian B failed to score in their last three 2026 Challenge Cup matches
- Hibernian B overall: scored in 8 of 13, so blanks are common
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Alloa's home scoring rate and Hibernian B's away conceding rate make two home goals more likely than not.
- Alloa home: 1.67 goals for per game
- Hibernian B away: 2.0 goals against per game
- Alloa scored in 5 of 6 home matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonAlloa Athletic over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Alloa's home defence and Hibernian B's recent blanks favour one or no away goals.
- Alloa home: 0.67 goals against per game
- Hibernian B scored in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Hibernian B failed to score in their last three 2026 Challenge Cup games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonHibernian B under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hibernian B usually find at least one goal, so Alloa keeping a clean sheet is slightly less likely.
- Hibernian B scored in 8 of 13 overall matches
- Hibernian B away: scored in 6 of 10 matches
- Alloa home: conceded in 3 of 6 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHibernian B to scoreEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alloa's home scoring and Hibernian B's poor defensive record make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Alloa scored in 5 of 6 home matches
- Hibernian B overall: conceded in 11 of 13 matches
- Hibernian B away: 2.0 goals against per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAlloa Athletic to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Even if Alloa win, Hibernian B often score, so a win without conceding is less likely.
- Alloa home: 3 clean sheets in 6, but only 3 wins
- Hibernian B scored in 8 of 13 overall matches
- Hibernian B away: scored in 6 of 10 matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
At least one first-half goal is likely given both teams' first-half averages and Alloa's recent starts.
- Alloa home first half: 1.0 total goals per game (0.83 for, 0.17 against)
- Hibernian B away first half: 1.6 total goals per game (0.9 for, 0.7 against)
- Alloa's last six matches all had at least one first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The evidence points to at most one team scoring in the first half.
- Alloa's last six matches had no first half where both teams scored
- Alloa home first half: one goal conceded across six matches
- Hibernian B failed to score in the first half of their last three 2026 Challenge Cup games
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent Alloa games have been tight after the break, so under two second-half goals is slightly more likely.
- Alloa's last six second halves: five had one goal or fewer
- Alloa home second half: 0.5 goals against per game
- Hibernian B away second half: 0.6 goals for per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%

Recent Form

Alloa Athletic

L1-2East KilbrideSep 19LEA

L0-1Airdrie UnitedSep 12LEA

D1-1ClydebankSep 8CHA

D1-1Cove RangersSep 5LEA

D1-1PeterheadAug 29LEA

W3-0Motherwell U21Aug 25CHA

W2-0Queen of the SouthAug 22LEA

W3-0MontroseAug 15LEA

W2-1StranraerAug 11CHA

L0-1Hamilton AcademicalAug 8LEA

D0-0East FifeAug 1LEA

L1-4Ayr UtdJul 25LEA

L0-2Edinburgh CityJul 14LEA

L0-3LivingstonJun 30FRI

W5-0Civil Service StrollersJun 23FRI

Hibernian B

L0-1Berwick RangersSep 8CHA

L0-1Queen of the SouthAug 25CHA

L0-4ClydebankAug 11CHA

L0-1Gala Fairydean RoversJul 18FRI

D4-4MontroseNov 17CHA

W4-0PeterheadOct 11CHA

D1-1Cove RangersSep 23CHA

L1-5SpartansSep 6CHA

L1-3Stirling AlbionAug 26CHA

L0-1Forfar AthleticAug 12CHA

L0-3The New SaintsSep 8CHA

W4-0BrechinAug 15CHA

L1-2Elgin CityAug 10CHA

L3-4Elgin CityAug 6CHA

Squad & Injuries

Alloa Athletic

30 available

Attackers11

Midfielders11

Defenders5

Goalkeeper3

Hibernian B

2 available

Attackers0

Midfielders2

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Draw

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 10 landed

Recent Form

Alloa Athletic

Hibernian B

Squad & Injuries

Alloa Athletic

Hibernian B