Segunda DivisiónFull time

Predictions graded

Tacuarembo1Huracan Montevideo1

HT 0–0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 17:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Huracán are unbeaten in six and face a Tacuarembó side winless in six with no home win in 2026, making the draw-or-Huracán double chance at 1.57 the top value play (+14 points vs implied).

Expect a low-scoring game — Under 2.5 and BTTS 'no' are the likeliest outcomes, while the home win at 2.30 is overpriced and best avoided.

Context

Tacuarembo are 14th in the 28-team Segunda División first phase with three points from six matches, having drawn three and lost three. Their home record is two draws and one loss from three games.
The table position matters because the gap to the relegation line is only three points, so a home match against a team above them is a direct chance to add points. Their recent scoring is limited: they have scored five goals in six league games and failed to score in four of their last six matches across all competitions. Huracan Montevideo arrive unbeaten, so Tacuarembo's main task is turning draws into a win rather than simply avoiding defeat.
- Tacuarembo have 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 6 league games, with 5 goals scored and 9 conceded.
- They sit 14th in the first-phase table with 3 points, three points above the relegation line.
- At home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 3 games, scoring 2 and conceding 4.
Huracan Montevideo are 4th in the Segunda División first phase with 10 points from six matches, two wins and four draws. They are three points behind leaders Oriental.
Their unbeaten record gives them a stable base, but four draws in six games show they have often failed to turn control into wins. Away from home they have one win and two draws from three matches, scoring five and conceding three. Against a Tacuarembo side without a win, the question is whether Huracan can convert their unbeaten run into three points rather than another draw.
- Huracan Montevideo have 2 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 6 league games, with 9 goals scored and 6 conceded.
- They are 4th in the first-phase table with 10 points, three points behind leaders Oriental.
- Away from home they have 1 win and 2 draws from 3 games, scoring 5 and conceding 3.
Tacuarembo have trailed at half-time in 40% of matches and led in 20%, with an average of 0.5 first-half goals conceded. Huracan Montevideo have trailed at half-time in 40% and led in 27%, conceding 0.7 first-half goals on average.
Both teams have been more likely to be behind than ahead at the break, which suggests the first half is often where they lose control. For Tacuarembo, who have scored only 0.5 goals per game on average, an early deficit would be hard to recover from. Huracan have scored 1.0 goal per game on average and 0.5 in first halves, so they carry more scoring threat if the game opens up early.
- Tacuarembo have trailed at half-time in 40% of matches and led in 20%, with 0.5 first-half goals conceded per game on average.
- Huracan Montevideo have trailed at half-time in 40% of matches and led in 27%, with 0.7 first-half goals conceded per game on average.
- Tacuarembo average 0.5 goals per game; Huracan Montevideo average 1.0 goal per game.
Tacuarembó confirmed its matchday group the night before the match, with Bernardo Giordano included to face Huracán at Estadio Goyenola on Sunday 20 September.
The call-up resolves squad-level availability for the home side, but no starting XI or shape was stated, so Giordano's inclusion does not establish whether he starts or where he plays. The remaining uncertainty is individual role rather than whether he is available.
- Tacuarembó's official account announced Bernardo Giordano's call-up to face Huracán.
- The announcement identified Sunday 20 September at Estadio Goyenola as the fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 17:11 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Huracan's unbeaten league run and superior away record against a winless Tacuarembo side, plus recent H2H edge, make the visitors the most likely winner despite the home venue.
- Huracan are unbeaten in 6 league games (2W 4D, 9 goals for, 6 against) and sit 4th with 10 points; Tacuarembo are winless in 6 (0W 3D 3L, 5 for, 9 against), 14th with 3 points.
- Huracan away record 2026: 1W 2D 0L, 5 goals for, 3 against in 3 away matches.
- Tacuarembo home record 2026: 0W 2D 1L, 2 goals for, 4 against in 3 home matches.
- Last 5 H2H: Huracan won 2, drew 1, lost 2, including a 2-0 win at Tacuarembo in April 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHuracan MontevideoEstimated chance47%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both sides drawing frequently and Tacuarembo unable to win, the double chance covering draw or Huracan is strongly supported by league form and H2H stalemate tendency.
- Huracan have drawn 4 of 6 league games (67%) and are unbeaten in 6.
- Tacuarembo have drawn 3 of 6 league games (50%) and are winless in 6.
- Both teams' 2026 records show low win rates: Tacuarembo 0 wins, Huracan 2 wins in 6.
- H2H last 5: 1 draw, and the most recent meeting (20 Sep 2026) ended 0-0.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Huracan MontevideoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score few first-half goals and frequently go into the break level, making a half-time draw the most probable single outcome.
- Tacuarembo have been drawing at half-time in 40% of matches (6 of 15).
- Huracan have been drawing at half-time in 33% of matches (5 of 15).
- Tacuarembo average 0.2 first-half goals; Huracan average 0.5 first-half goals.
- In the last 5 H2H, half-time results were often level.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Huracan's stronger overall scoring and Tacuarembo's second-half defensive vulnerabilities suggest the visitors are more likely to win the second half.
- Huracan have scored 9 goals in 6 league games, with a tendency to score in the second half.
- Tacuarembo have conceded 9 goals in 6 league games, often after half-time.
- Huracan's overall goal difference is +3; Tacuarembo's is -4.
- Tacuarembo have lost 3 of 6 league games, often conceding in the second half.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostHuracan MontevideoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tacuarembo rarely lead at half-time, while Huracan are more competitive early, making the double chance covering draw or Huracan a solid first-half pick.
- Tacuarembo have been leading at half-time in only 20% of matches.
- Huracan have been leading or drawing at half-time in 60% of matches.
- Tacuarembo average 0.2 first-half goals; Huracan average 0.5 first-half goals.
- Tacuarembo have trailed at half-time in 40% of matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Huracan MontevideoEstimated chance72%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tacuarembo's very low scoring output and Huracan's moderate defensive record point to a low-scoring affair, with the H2H also showing tight totals.
- Tacuarembo average 0.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game in last 15; Huracan average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Tacuarembo have scored 0 or 1 goal in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Huracan have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 6 league games and conceded 6 in 6.
- H2H last 5: three of the last five meetings produced 2 or fewer total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tacuarembo's chronic scoring problems and Huracan's ability to keep clean sheets make 'both teams to score' less likely, supported by H2H patterns.
- Tacuarembo have failed to score in 9 of their last 15 matches (60%).
- Huracan have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 6 league games.
- In the last 5 H2H, both teams scored in only 2 of 5 meetings.
- Tacuarembo's first-half goals average is just 0.2 per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and frequently trail or draw at the break, making under 1.5 first-half goals the likely outcome.
- Tacuarembo average 0.2 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in last 15.
- Huracan average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded in last 15.
- Tacuarembo have been leading at half-time in only 20% of matches; trailing in 40%.
- Huracan have been leading at half-time in 27% of matches; trailing in 40%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tacuarembo's poor scoring record gives Huracan a reasonable chance of a clean sheet, though it is not the most likely single outcome.
- Tacuarembo have failed to score in 9 of their last 15 matches.
- Huracan have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 6 league games.
- Tacuarembo average 0.5 goals per game in last 15.
- H2H last 5: Huracan kept a clean sheet in the 2-0 win in April 2026.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostTacuarembo not to scoreEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tacuarembo's extremely low scoring output, especially at home, makes under 1.5 total home goals highly probable.
- Tacuarembo have scored 0 or 1 goal in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Tacuarembo average 0.5 goals per game in last 15.
- Tacuarembo have scored only 2 goals in 3 home league games in 2026.
- Tacuarembo have failed to score in 9 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonTacuarembo under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Huracan's consistent scoring, particularly away from home, makes them likely to score at least once against a leaky Tacuarembo defence.
- Huracan have scored in 4 of their last 6 league games.
- Huracan average 1.0 goals per game in last 15.
- Huracan have scored 5 goals in 3 away league games in 2026.
- Tacuarembo have conceded in 5 of their last 6 league games.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonHuracan Montevideo over 0.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Huracan have shown they can win without conceding, and Tacuarembo's scoring struggles make a win-to-nil for the visitors a plausible but not probable outcome.
- Huracan have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 6 league games.
- Tacuarembo have failed to score in 9 of their last 15 matches.
- Huracan won 2-0 at Tacuarembo in April 2026.
- Huracan's away record: 1W 2D 0L, 5 goals for, 3 against.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostYesEstimated chance28%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 43% leaves no cushion for a side winless in 6 and without a home win in 2026; the price already reflects venue bias.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

D0-0TacuarembovSportivo HuracanSep 20, 2026SEG

L2-1Sportivo HuracanvTacuaremboJun 13, 2026SEG

L0-2TacuarembovSportivo HuracanApr 12, 2026SEG

L2-1Sportivo HuracanvTacuaremboSep 2, 2017SEG

W2-0TacuarembovSportivo HuracanApr 15, 2017SEG

Tacuarembo: 2 clean sheetsHuracan Montevideo: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Segunda División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	5-9	3	DLLLD
4	Huracan Montevideo	6	2	4	0	9-6	10	DWWDD

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Tacuarembo

D2-2Uruguay MontevideoSep 12SEG

L0-1OrientalSep 6SEG

L0-1ColónAug 29SEG

L0-2FenixAug 22SEG

W1-0RentistasAug 16SEG

D1-1MiramarAug 9SEG

W1-0CA River PlateAug 2SEG

L0-2Plaza ColoniaJul 25SEG

L0-2La LuzJul 13SEG

D0-0CerritoJul 5SEG

L0-2AtenasJun 27SEG

W1-0PaysanduJun 20SEG

L1-2Sportivo HuracanJun 13SEG

W1-0Uruguay MontevideoJun 7SEG

L0-2OrientalJun 1SEG

Huracan Montevideo

L1-2Plaza ColoniaSep 12SEG

W3-1La LuzSep 4SEG

W2-1CerritoAug 29SEG

D0-0AtenasAug 23SEG

W3-2PaysanduAug 15SEG

L0-2CA River PlateAug 9SEG

L1-3Uruguay MontevideoAug 1SEG

L0-1OrientalJul 18SEG

L0-2ColónJul 11SEG

L0-2FenixJul 5SEG

L1-2RentistasJun 27SEG

W1-0MiramarJun 19SEG

W2-1TacuaremboJun 13SEG

D0-0Plaza ColoniaJun 5SEG

D1-1La LuzMay 31SEG

Squad & Injuries

Tacuarembo

20 available

Attackers7

Midfielders6

Defenders5

Goalkeeper2

Huracan Montevideo

2 available

Attackers0

Midfielders1

Defenders0

Goalkeeper1

Tacuarembo1Huracan Montevideo1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Huracan Montevideo

Huracan Montevideo

Under 2.5

No

Under 1.5

Over 0.5

Under 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 7 landed

Markets to Avoid

Tacuarembo

Over 3.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Tacuarembo

Huracan Montevideo

Squad & Injuries

Tacuarembo

Huracan Montevideo