Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean
No
1.95fair 1.61
Market 51.3% · BetBugs 62%
+10.7ppedge
Leverkusen's solid defense and Celje's inconsistent scoring suggest a clean sheet for the home side is more likely than both teams scoring.
UEFA Europa League·Full time·Featured
Predictions graded
Bayer Leverkusen22 – 0
Celje0
HT 1–0· · Predictions graded
Predictions17–577%
Edges6–275%
PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 17–5On targetOn target 8–3CornersCorners 6–2
Quick Take
Pre-match view
Leverkusen should win comfortably, but the short odds on match winner and over 2.5 goals offer no value.
The best betting edges are on Leverkusen keeping a clean sheet: Both Teams to Score – No at 1.95 (10.7-point edge) and Home Clean Sheet – Yes at 2.10 (10.4-point edge).
Context
Bayer Leverkusen are a Bundesliga club with a strong home record in recent weeks.
In their last two home games, Leverkusen beat Union Berlin 4-0 on 5 September and Rot-Weiß Essen 3-0 on 1 August. Those results show they can score freely and keep clean sheets at home. However, both opponents were weaker sides, so it is not certain they will repeat that against Celje.
- Leverkusen beat Union Berlin 4-0 at home on 5 September 2026.
- Leverkusen beat Rot-Weiß Essen 3-0 at home on 1 August 2026.
Bayer Leverkusen attacker M. Diaby made his competitive return against Union Berlin, entering in the 67th minute on 5 September.
His availability gives Leverkusen another pace-focused wide option for attacking changes or transition situations. P. Schick had started in that position in four of the five recent fixtures when Diaby did not start, so Diaby's return may alter the right-side selection.
- Bayer 04 reported that M. Diaby entered the 4-0 win over Union Berlin in the 67th minute on 5 September.
- The club described Diaby as a right-sided attacking option who immediately created activity on that flank.
- M. Diaby started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- P. Schick started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when M. Diaby did not start.
Celje are a Slovenian club playing in European competition.
Celje lost 4-1 at Brinje-Grosuplje on 30 August and 2-1 at Ararat-Armenia on 4 August. Those away defeats show they can concede multiple goals on the road. But those opponents are not as strong as Leverkusen, so the pattern may not fully apply here.
- Celje lost 4-1 away to Brinje-Grosuplje on 30 August 2026.
- Celje lost 2-1 away to Ararat-Armenia on 4 August 2026.
Bayer Leverkusen defender G. Doué was listed as doubtful for Augsburg on 9 September because of match fitness.
His readiness for the final match before Celje remains unresolved, adding selection uncertainty rather than a confirmed absence. Miguel Gutiérrez has started in that position in all five recent fixtures when Doué did not start.
- Bundesliga team news on 9 September listed G. Doué as doubtful for Augsburg because of match fitness.
- Bayer 04 reported on 2 September that its recent signing had initially trained individually.
- G. Doué started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- Miguel Gutiérrez started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when G. Doué did not start.
Signal quality track record · Football
High Medium Low
Share of graded picks that landed, per signal quality.
BetBugs edges
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 3
Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean
Celje not to score
2.10fair 1.72
Market 47.6% · BetBugs 58%
+10.4ppedge
Leverkusen's defensive solidity and Celje's scoring struggles make a home clean sheet a plausible outcome.
2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean
Over 1.5
1.70fair 1.67
Market 58.8% · BetBugs 60%
+1.2ppedge
Leverkusen's sustained attacking pressure and Celje's fatigue from a short turnaround could lead to second-half goals.
Other edges · 5
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean
Bayer Leverkusen
1.18fair 1.28
BetBugs 78% · Market 85%
0.0ppshort
Leverkusen's superior attacking output and recent form, combined with Celje's defensive vulnerabilities, make a home win highly likely.
Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw
1.04fair 1.09
BetBugs 92% · Market 96%
0.0ppshort
Leverkusen's strong home record and Celje's poor away form make a home win or draw extremely probable.
HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip
Bayer Leverkusen at half-time / Bayer Leverkusen at full-time
1.54fair 2.00
BetBugs 50% · Market 65%
0.0ppshort
Leverkusen's tendency to start strong and maintain control makes a home lead at both half-time and full-time a reasonable prediction.
Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean
Over 2.5
1.22fair 1.47
BetBugs 68% · Market 82%
0.0ppshort
Both teams' recent matches trend high-scoring, but the odds already price in a very high likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean
No
1.20fair 1.67
BetBugs 60% · Market 83.3%
0.0ppshort
Leverkusen's strong first-half defense and Celje's low first-half scoring output make both teams scoring before the break unlikely.
BetBugs probabilities
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Result7 of 7 landed
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's superior attacking output and recent form, combined with Celje's defensive vulnerabilities, make a home win highly likely.
- Bayer Leverkusen average 2.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Celje average 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Bayer Leverkusen won 4 of last 5 competitive matches, including 4-0 vs Union Berlin.
- Celje lost 0-1 to Koper in their most recent match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBayer LeverkusenEstimated chance78%Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's strong home record and Celje's poor away form make a home win or draw extremely probable.
- Bayer Leverkusen have not lost at home in their last 5 competitive home matches.
- Celje have won only 2 of their last 10 away matches across all competitions.
- Leverkusen's home form includes a 4-0 win and a 4-1 win in recent Bundesliga games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBayer Leverkusen or DrawEstimated chance92%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's strong first-half performances and Celje's tendency to trail early make a home lead at the break likely.
- Bayer Leverkusen led at half-time in 47% of their matches.
- Celje trailed at half-time in 29% of their matches.
- Leverkusen average 1.1 first-half goals scored vs 0.6 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBayer LeverkusenEstimated chance55%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's superior squad depth and Celje's travel fatigue should see the home side dominate the second half.
- Bayer Leverkusen have a positive second-half goal difference in most matches.
- Celje's second-half performance often declines due to fatigue.
- Leverkusen's depth allows them to maintain intensity after the break.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonBayer LeverkusenEstimated chance58%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's tendency to start strong and maintain control makes a home lead at both half-time and full-time a reasonable prediction.
- Bayer Leverkusen led at half-time in 47% of matches and won 60% of matches overall.
- Celje trailed at half-time in 29% of matches and lost 40% of matches overall.
- Leverkusen's home advantage strengthens their ability to lead throughout.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonBayer Leverkusen/Bayer LeverkusenEstimated chance50%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While possible, winning both halves requires consistent dominance, which is less certain against a motivated Celje side.
- Bayer Leverkusen won both halves in 2 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Celje lost both halves in 1 of their last 5 matches.
- Leverkusen's attacking depth can sustain pressure across both halves.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonYesEstimated chance35%Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's strong first-half record and Celje's tendency to draw or trail at the break make a home lead or draw highly probable.
- Bayer Leverkusen led at half-time in 47% of matches and drew at half-time in 26%.
- Celje trailed at half-time in 29% of matches and drew at half-time in 64%.
- Leverkusen's first-half goal difference is +0.5 per match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBayer Leverkusen or DrawEstimated chance85%
Goals3 of 6 landed
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches trend towards high-scoring affairs, and Leverkusen's attacking firepower should produce multiple goals.
- Bayer Leverkusen matches average 3.8 total goals (2.7 for, 1.1 against).
- Celje matches average 2.9 total goals (1.5 for, 1.4 against).
- Leverkusen scored 4 goals in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Celje conceded 4 goals in one recent match and 3 in another.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance68%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's solid defense and Celje's inconsistent scoring suggest a clean sheet for the home side is more likely than both teams scoring.
- Bayer Leverkusen kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Celje failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Leverkusen's defense conceded only 1.1 goals per game on average.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance62%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's defensive solidity and Celje's scoring struggles make a home clean sheet a plausible outcome.
- Bayer Leverkusen kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Celje failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Leverkusen's average goals conceded is 1.1, but they have been stronger at home.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCelje not to scoreEstimated chance58%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's tendency to score early and Celje's first-half defensive weaknesses could lead to multiple first-half goals.
- Bayer Leverkusen average 1.1 first-half goals scored.
- Celje average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Leverkusen led at half-time in 47% of their matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's sustained attacking pressure and Celje's fatigue from a short turnaround could lead to second-half goals.
- Bayer Leverkusen score 1.6 goals per second half on average (2.7 total - 1.1 first half).
- Celje concede 0.6 goals per second half on average (1.4 total - 0.8 first half).
- Leverkusen often push for more goals late in matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's strong first-half defense and Celje's low first-half scoring output make both teams scoring before the break unlikely.
- Bayer Leverkusen average 0.6 first-half goals conceded.
- Celje average 0.6 first-half goals scored.
- Leverkusen kept first-half clean sheets in 4 of their last 6 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%
Match stats7 of 9 landed
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and Leverkusen's attacking style should push the total over 9.5.
- Bayer Leverkusen average 5.9 corners per match.
- Celje average 6.0 corners per match.
- Combined average corners in Leverkusen matches is 11.9 (5.9 + 6.0 opponent corners).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's attacking dominance at home should result in a high number of corners.
- Bayer Leverkusen average 5.9 corners per match.
- Leverkusen earned 11 corners in their last home match.
- Celje concede an average of 6.0 corners per match.
BetBugs · Home CornerswonBayer Leverkusen over 5.5Estimated chance55%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Celje's likely defensive setup and Leverkusen's control of possession should limit the away side's corner count.
- Celje average 6.0 corners per match, but away from home they may earn fewer.
- Leverkusen concede an average of 5.9 corners per match, but their strong defense limits opponent chances.
- Celje's expected defensive approach will reduce their attacking corner opportunities.
BetBugs · Away CornerswonCelje under 3.5Estimated chance55%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's high shot volume and Celje's occasional attacking bursts could push total shots over 24.5.
- Bayer Leverkusen average 16.0 shots per match.
- Celje average 8.0 shots per match.
- Combined average shots in Leverkusen matches is 24.0, but Leverkusen's home games often exceed this.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 24.5Estimated chance55%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' shots on target averages suggest a total over 8.5 is achievable, especially with Leverkusen's attacking pressure.
- Bayer Leverkusen average 6.0 shots on target per match.
- Celje average 6.0 shots on target per match.
- Leverkusen's accuracy at home is typically higher.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's high shot volume and Celje's defensive vulnerabilities make over 15.5 home shots likely.
- Bayer Leverkusen average 16.0 shots per match.
- Leverkusen had 21 shots in their last home match.
- Celje's defense allows an average of 14.0 shots per match.
BetBugs · Home Shots TotalwonBayer Leverkusen over 15.5Estimated chance60%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Celje's limited attacking output and Leverkusen's defensive control should keep away shots under 8.5.
- Celje average 8.0 shots per match.
- Leverkusen's defense limits opponents to 5.0 shots on target per match.
- Celje's away matches often see fewer attacking opportunities.
BetBugs · Away Shots TotalwonCelje under 8.5Estimated chance60%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's accuracy and Celje's defensive lapses should result in over 5.5 shots on target for the home side.
- Bayer Leverkusen average 6.0 shots on target per match.
- Leverkusen had 10 shots on target in their last home match.
- Celje's defense allows an average of 6.0 shots on target per match.
BetBugs · Home Shots on Target TotalwonBayer Leverkusen over 5.5Estimated chance60%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Celje's limited attacking threat and Leverkusen's strong defense make under 3.5 away shots on target likely.
- Celje average 6.0 shots on target per match, but away from home this drops.
- Leverkusen's defense concedes only 1.1 goals per game and limits shots on target.
- Celje's expected defensive approach will reduce their attacking threat.
BetBugs · Away Shots on Target TotalwonCelje under 3.5Estimated chance60%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Celje's aggressive style and Leverkusen's tactical fouling could lead to over 3.5 cards.
- Bayer Leverkusen average 1.4 yellow cards per match.
- Celje average 3.5 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards is 4.9, suggesting a high total.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance55%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's low card average and disciplined play make under 1.5 home cards likely.
- Bayer Leverkusen average 1.4 yellow cards per match.
- Leverkusen received 0 yellow cards in their last home match.
- Leverkusen's disciplined style keeps card counts low.
BetBugs · Home Cards Over/Undernot gradableBayer Leverkusen under 1.5Estimated chance60%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Celje's high card average and aggressive style make over 2.5 away cards likely.
- Celje average 3.5 yellow cards per match.
- Celje received 5 yellow cards in a recent Champions League match.
- Celje's aggressive pressing leads to more fouls and cards.
BetBugs · Away Cards Over/Undernot gradableCelje over 2.5Estimated chance60%
The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees
Markets to Avoid
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 85% leaves no cushion vs our 78% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.
League Table
UEFA Europa League 2026/2027| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bayer Leverkusen Play Offs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0 | |
| 7 | Celje | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0 |
Bayer Leverkusen leads the leagueCelje leads the league
Recent Form
Bayer Leverkusen
W4-0SV WehenDFB
W2-1NewcastleFRI
L1-2Nottingham ForestFRI
W2-1SevillaFRI
W3-0Rot-Weiß EssenFRI
W4-0GenkFRI
W3-1Kickers OffenbachFRI
W7-0SF BaumbergFRI
L0-2Bayern MünchenDFB
Celje
D2-2Mura1.
D1-1Istra 1961FRI
W4-3MTK BudapestFRI
D1-1CukarickiFRI
L0-1HNK Hajduk SplitFRI
Squad & Injuries
Bayer Leverkusen
33 availableAttackers8
Midfielders12
Defenders9
Goalkeeper4
Celje
32 availableAttackers9
Midfielders8
Defenders11
Goalkeeper4