Benjamin Aceval or Draw
Market 67.6% · BetBugs 75%
Benjamin Aceval's strong home record and Paraguari's poor away form make a home win or draw highly likely, and the odds offer a clear edge.
Division IntermediaFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
The best value is on Benjamin Aceval or Draw (double chance) at 1.48, with a 75% estimated probability versus 68% implied.
Both Teams to Score Yes also offers a small edge at 1.78. Avoid the home win and first-half goals over 0.5, where the market overprices the outcomes.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 67.6% · BetBugs 75%
Benjamin Aceval's strong home record and Paraguari's poor away form make a home win or draw highly likely, and the odds offer a clear edge.
Market 56.2% · BetBugs 60%
Both teams scored in 12 of last 15 matches and have similar goals-conceded averages, supporting BTTS Yes.
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
Benjamin AcevalBetBugs 45% · Market 51.3%
The market overprices the home side; our model gives them only 45% while the odds imply 51%, so there is no value on the home win.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 51% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Benjamin Aceval | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 36-26 | 39 |
| 10 | Paraguari | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 28-30 | 29 |

