Czech LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Banik Ostrava1Pardubice2

HT 0–1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 14–16On targetOn target 4–7CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 00:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Banik Ostrava are favoured at home against a poor-travelling Pardubice side, but the market overprices their chances: the home win at 1.85 offers negative value (45% model vs 54% implied).

The unresolved availability of defender Chaluš adds uncertainty, and the only market with a marginal edge is Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.67. Avoid the home win, double chance, and first-half over 0.5 goals.

Context

Pardubice sit 15th in the Czech Liga with 2 points from 7 matches, 7 points behind Banik Ostrava.
Their form is DLLDL, and they have scored only 5 goals while conceding 12. This lack of wins puts pressure on them to get a result, but their away record is also poor with 0 wins in 4 games.
- Pardubice have 0 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses in 7 league matches.
- They are 15th in the table with 2 points, 7 points behind Banik Ostrava.
- Their away record is 0 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in 4 matches.
Banik Ostrava are 11th with 9 points from 6 matches, but their recent form is LWWLL.
They lost 4-0 away to Mlada Boleslav on 6 September and 2-1 away to Hradec Králové on 9 August. At home they have won two of three, but the heavy defeat may affect their approach.
- Banik Ostrava lost 4-0 to Mlada Boleslav on 6 September 2026.
- They lost 2-1 to Hradec Králové on 9 August 2026.
- Their last five league results are LWWLL.
Baník central defender M. Chaluš was sent off early in the second half at Jablonec on 9 September, and his eligibility for this match has not been formally clarified.
His potential absence would force a change in Baník's central defensive pairing, but no replacement or tactical adjustment is confirmed. The situation remains unresolved, so the exact impact on defensive organisation is uncertain.
- Chance Liga reported that Baník played most of the second half at Jablonec without the dismissed Matěj Chaluš.
- Jablonec used the numerical advantage to score twice more in a 3-0 win.
To watchSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 00:27 · Europe/BucharestChance Liga match reportwww.chanceliga.cz · 9 Sep 2026
The teams have met five times since March 2025, with Pardubice winning three and Banik Ostrava two.
Pardubice won the most recent league match 4-1 on 13 December 2025 and also won 1-0 away on 1 October 2025. However, Banik Ostrava won 5-2 at home in March 2025, so home advantage has mattered.
- Pardubice won 4-1 at home against Banik Ostrava on 13 December 2025.
- Pardubice won 1-0 away against Banik Ostrava on 1 October 2025.
- Banik Ostrava won 5-2 at home against Pardubice on 29 March 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Banik Ostrava

1.85fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 54%

0.0ppshort

Baník's home form is stronger than Pardubice's away form, but the market price already reflects that edge, leaving no value at 1.85.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Banik Ostrava or Draw

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Pardubice have not won away this season, but the 1.25 quote leaves no room for error and is below our fair odds.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Banik Ostrava's stronger home form and Pardubice's poor away record give them the edge, though H2H is mixed.
- Banik Ostrava home record this season: 2W-0D-1L, 2 goals scored, 4 conceded
- Pardubice away record this season: 0W-1D-3L, 3 goals scored, 7 conceded
- Last 5 H2H: Banik Ostrava won 2, Pardubice won 2, 1 draw (all competitions)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBanik OstravaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pardubice's away struggles make Banik Ostrava or Draw a strong double chance.
- Banik Ostrava home record: 2W-0D-1L
- Pardubice away record: 0W-1D-3L
- Pardubice have not won away this season
BetBugs · Double ChancelostBanik Ostrava or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Similar first-half performance makes a draw at half-time a plausible outcome.
- Banik Ostrava leading at half-time in 33% of matches
- Pardubice leading at half-time in 33% of matches
- Both teams have similar first-half scoring rates
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Banik Ostrava win is a possible scenario given home advantage.
- Banik Ostrava have won 2 of 3 home matches
- Pardubice have lost 3 of 4 away matches
- Banik Ostrava often score in second half
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Banik OstravaEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring and conceding averages plus high-scoring H2H suggest over 2.5 goals.
- Banik Ostrava average 2.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match (last 15)
- Pardubice average 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match (last 15)
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been scoring regularly and H2H often sees both teams on the scoresheet.
- Banik Ostrava have scored in 4 of last 5 matches
- Pardubice have scored in 4 of last 5 matches
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Banik Ostrava average 0.8 first-half goals scored
- Pardubice average 0.8 first-half goals scored
- Pardubice average 0.7 first-half goals conceded
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring averages suggest over 1.5 goals is possible but not certain.
- Banik Ostrava average 1.3 second-half goals (total 2.1 - 0.8 first-half)
- Pardubice average 0.7 second-half goals (total 1.5 - 0.8 first-half)
- Combined second-half average: 2.0 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages are near the 9.5 line, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- Banik Ostrava average 5.2 corners per match
- Pardubice average 4.6 corners per match
- Combined average: 9.8 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target average is slightly below 7.5, making over 7.5 uncertain.
- Banik Ostrava average 3.3 shots on target per match
- Pardubice average 3.9 shots on target per match
- Combined average: 7.2 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined yellow card average is below 3.5, but match intensity could push it over.
- Banik Ostrava average 1.5 yellow cards per match
- Pardubice average 1.7 yellow cards per match
- Combined average: 3.2 yellow cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The home win is priced at 1.85, implying 54%, while our estimate is only 45% — the market already overrates Baník's edge.

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W1-4Baník OstravavPardubiceDec 13, 2025CZE

W3-4PardubicevBaník OstravaNov 5, 2025CUP

W0-1PardubicevBaník OstravaOct 1, 2025CZE

L5-2Baník OstravavPardubiceMar 29, 2025CZE

W0-2PardubicevBaník OstravaMar 5, 2025CUP

Banik Ostrava: 2 clean sheets4.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Czech Liga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Banik Ostrava Relegation Play-offs	6	3	0	3	4-10	9	LWWLL
15	Pardubice Relegation Play-offs	7	0	2	5	5-12	2	DLLDL

7pt gap between teamsBanik Ostrava in relegation zonePardubice in relegation zone

Recent Form

Banik Ostrava

L0-4Mlada BoleslavSep 6CZE

W1-0Sigma OlomoucAug 29CZE

W9-0Sparta BrnoAug 26CUP

W1-0ArtisAug 16CZE

L1-2Hradec KrálovéAug 9CZE

L0-4Slavia PrahaAug 1CZE

W1-0ZlinJul 25CZE

L2-3AS TrencinJul 18FRI

L1-2Miedz LegnicaJul 11FRI

D2-2Wisla PlockJul 11FRI

W2-0Zaglebie LubinJul 8FRI

L0-1Piast GliwiceJul 4FRI

W3-1HanáckáJul 1FRI

W5-0TáborskoMay 30CZE

W3-0TáborskoMay 26CZE

Pardubice

D0-0SlováckoSep 5CZE

L1-2ArtisAug 29CZE

W2-0PísekAug 26CUP

L1-3Sigma OlomoucAug 23CZE

D1-1Mlada BoleslavAug 15CZE

L1-2Slavia PrahaAug 9CZE

L0-2FK JablonecAug 2CZE

L1-2Hradec KrálovéJul 26CZE

W5-0Vysočina JihlavaJul 18FRI

L0-2Cracovia KrakowJul 9FRI

D2-2Rapid ViennaJul 5FRI

D2-2ŽilinaJul 1FRI

D1-1Odra OpoleJul 1FRI

W2-1KarvináMay 2CZE

W3-1ZlinApr 25CZE

Squad & Injuries

Banik Ostrava

29 available

Attackers3

Midfielders14

Defenders7

Goalkeeper5

Pardubice

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Banik Ostrava

Banik Ostrava or Draw

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Banik Ostrava

Banik Ostrava or Draw

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Banik Ostrava

Pardubice

Squad & Injuries

Banik Ostrava

Pardubice