VirsligaFull time

Predictions graded

Super Nova Riga1Tukums 20000

HT 0–0Thu 10 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 04:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Super Nova Riga have a slight edge over Tukums 2000, with a 45% win probability versus the market's 42% implied, and a 70% double chance versus 68% implied.

The home win at 2.40 and double chance at 1.48 offer small value, but goals markets are efficiently priced or overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Super Nova sit sixth in the Virsliga with 32 points from 27 matches. Their away form is much stronger than at home.
At home they have lost eight of 13 matches and conceded 24 goals, while away they have won seven of 14. This match is at home, so their weaker home record is directly relevant. Recent home results include a 0-0 draw with BFC Daugavpils on 22 August and a 1-2 loss to FK Liepaja on 9 August. The pattern suggests they may find it harder to control this game than their league position implies.
- Home record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses in 13 matches, with 14 goals scored and 24 conceded.
- Away record: 7 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses in 14 matches, with 14 goals scored and 14 conceded.
- Recent home results: 0-0 vs BFC Daugavpils (22 Aug), 1-2 vs FK Liepaja (9 Aug).
Tukums are ninth in the Virsliga with 23 points from 29 matches. Their away form is a major weakness.
They have lost 10 of 14 away matches and conceded 36 goals, an average of over 2.5 per game. Recent away results include a 0-3 loss at Auda on 21 August and a 0-2 loss at BFC Daugavpils on 8 August. This match is away, so their poor away record is a strong signal that they may struggle to get a result.
- Away record: 0 wins, 4 draws, 10 losses in 14 matches, with 16 goals scored and 36 conceded.
- Recent away results: 0-3 at Auda (21 Aug), 0-2 at BFC Daugavpils (8 Aug).
The teams have met four times in 2026, with Super Nova winning three and drawing one.
Super Nova won 2-1 away in the league on 1 July and 2-1 away in the cup on 11 July. The most recent meeting at Super Nova's home was a 1-1 draw on 11 May. This recent head-to-head record suggests Super Nova have had the upper hand, but the home draw shows Tukums can be competitive.
- 1 July 2026: Tukums 1-2 Super Nova (Virsliga)
- 11 July 2026: Tukums 1-2 Super Nova (Cup)
- 11 May 2026: Super Nova 1-1 Tukums (Virsliga)
Super Nova sit sixth with 32 points from 27 matches, five behind fifth-placed BFC Daugavpils who have played one more game. Tukums are ninth with 23 points from 29 matches, eight clear of bottom side Ogre United.
Both teams have concrete points incentives: Super Nova can press the top half while Tukums seek to maintain lower-table separation. The linked match-winner outlook sees Super Nova's superior head-to-head record and Tukums' poor away form giving the home side an edge, though Super Nova's own home struggles temper confidence.
- Sportacentrs' post-round-29 table listed Super Nova sixth with 32 points from 27 matches, five points behind BFC Daugavpils, who had played 28.
- The same table listed Tukums ninth with 23 points from 29 matches and Ogre United tenth with 15 points from 28.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 04:23 · Europe/BucharestSportacentrs: Super Nova win at Jelgava and round 29 tablesportacentrs.com · 5 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.78fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 56.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have leaky defenses and recent H2H meetings have consistently produced 2-3 goals, supporting over 2.5.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.65fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have found the net in recent head-to-heads and have moderate scoring rates, making BTTS likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams concede first-half goals at a high rate, making at least one first-half goal probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Super Nova's superior H2H record and Tukums' poor away form give the home side an edge, though Super Nova's own home struggles temper confidence.
- Super Nova won 3 of last 5 H2H meetings (2-1, 2-1, 2-1)
- Super Nova home record: 2W-3D-8L, but Tukums away record: 0W-4D-10L
- Super Nova recent form: WDDLW; Tukums recent form: WLLLW
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSuper Nova RigaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tukums' winless away record and Super Nova's H2H dominance make the home side or draw a strong double chance.
- Super Nova unbeaten in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings (2W,1D)
- Tukums away record: 0 wins in 14 matches
- Super Nova home record: 2W-3D-8L, but Tukums away record: 0W-4D-10L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSuper Nova Riga or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into the break level, making a first-half draw a plausible outcome.
- Super Nova leading at half time in 7% of matches, trailing in 40%
- Tukums leading at half time in 20% of matches, trailing in 40%
- Both teams have high draw rates at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Super Nova's stronger H2H record and Tukums' poor away second halves give the home side a slight edge in the second period.
- Super Nova second half goal difference: 0.0; Tukums second half goal difference: -0.9
- Super Nova won 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Tukums away record: 0 wins in 14 matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSuper Nova RigaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Super Nova win is a plausible HT/FT combination given Super Nova's second-half edge.
- Super Nova draw at half time in 53% of matches
- Super Nova win full time in 33% of matches
- Tukums draw at half time in 40% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Super Nova RigaEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team is likely to win both halves given their low first-half lead rates.
- Super Nova leading at half time in only 7% of matches
- Tukums leading at half time in 20% of matches
- Neither team shows consistent first-half dominance
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Super Nova's poor first-half record makes Tukums or draw a reasonable first-half double chance.
- Super Nova leading at half time in only 7% of matches
- Tukums leading at half time in 20% of matches
- Super Nova trailing at half time in 40% of matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Tukums 2000Estimated chance55%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses and recent H2H meetings have consistently produced 2-3 goals, supporting over 2.5.
- Tukums average 2.3 goals conceded per match
- Super Nova average 1.5 goals conceded per match
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3,3,2,3,3 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have found the net in recent head-to-heads and have moderate scoring rates, making BTTS likely.
- Tukums scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Super Nova scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Tukums average 1.0 goals scored per match; Super Nova average 0.9
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede first-half goals at a high rate, making at least one first-half goal probable.
- Super Nova first half goals: 0.3 per match; first half conceded: 0.9
- Tukums first half goals: 0.5 per match; first half conceded: 0.9
- Combined first half goal average: 1.3 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tukums' second-half defensive frailty and both teams' scoring patterns suggest a decent chance of multiple second-half goals.
- Super Nova second half goals: 0.6 per match; second half conceded: 0.6
- Tukums second half goals: 0.5 per match; second half conceded: 1.4
- Combined second half goal average: 1.5 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely score in the first half, making BTTS in the first half unlikely.
- Super Nova first half goals: 0.3; first half conceded: 0.9
- Tukums first half goals: 0.5; first half conceded: 0.9
- Combined first half BTTS rate: low
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 'No' outcome is not offered in the available odds data, so no edge can be priced.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W1-2TukumsvSuper NovaJul 11, 2026CUP

W1-2TukumsvSuper NovaJul 1, 2026VIR

D1-1Super NovavTukumsMay 11, 2026VIR

W1-2TukumsvSuper NovaMar 22, 2026VIR

L2-1TukumsvSuper NovaSep 28, 2025VIR

2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Virsliga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Super Nova Riga	27	9	5	13	28-38	32	WDDLW
9	Tukums 2000	29	5	8	16	43-59	23	WLLLW

9pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Super Nova Riga

W1-0FS JelgavaSep 5VIR

D1-1AudaAug 29VIR

D0-0BFC DaugavpilsAug 22VIR

L0-1Rīgas FSAug 16CUP

L1-2FK LiepajaAug 9VIR

W2-0GrobiņaJul 20VIR

W2-1TukumsJul 11CUP

L1-2Ogre UnitedJul 6VIR

W2-1TukumsJul 1VIR

L1-5FS JelgavaJun 25VIR

L0-2AudaJun 21VIR

D0-0BFC DaugavpilsJun 16VIR

L1-2FK LiepajaJun 12VIR

L1-2Rīgas FSMay 29VIR

L0-3RigaMay 24VIR

Tukums 2000

W2-1Ogre UnitedSep 5VIR

L1-4FS JelgavaAug 29VIR

L0-3AudaAug 21VIR

L0-2BFC DaugavpilsAug 8VIR

W2-1FK LiepajaAug 2VIR

L0-1Rīgas FSJul 27VIR

L1-3RigaJul 18VIR

L1-2Super NovaJul 11CUP

L1-3GrobiņaJul 5VIR

L1-2Super NovaJul 1VIR

L2-3Ogre UnitedJun 26VIR

L1-4FS JelgavaJun 21VIR

W2-1AudaJun 17VIR

D1-1BFC DaugavpilsJun 12VIR

L0-3FK LiepajaMay 30VIR

Squad & Injuries

Super Nova Riga

25 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Tukums 2000

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Super Nova Riga

Super Nova Riga or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

No

Result7 of 7 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Super Nova Riga

Tukums 2000

Squad & Injuries

Super Nova Riga

Tukums 2000