Sportivo Carapegua2Benjamin Aceval0

HT 0–0Thu 10 Sept 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges3–538%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 22:26 · Europe/Bucharest

The clearest value is in the first-half double chance market: 'Draw or Benjamín Aceval' at 2.30 offers a +22 point edge, driven by Carapeguá's habit of trailing at half-time.

Other markets are efficiently priced or overpriced, with the away win and over 2.5 goals showing negative edges. Rain adds uncertainty, so focus on the first-half angle.

Context

Benjamin Aceval are fourth in the Division Intermedia table with 39 points from 22 matches.
Their away record shows six wins, two draws, and three losses, with 21 goals scored and 14 conceded. Sportivo Carapegua have won five, drawn one, and lost five at home, conceding 16 goals. This suggests Benjamin Aceval can create chances on the road, but their three away losses show they are not unbeatable.
- Benjamin Aceval's away record: 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 11 matches.
- Benjamin Aceval have scored 21 goals away from home.
- Sportivo Carapegua's home record: 5 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses in 11 matches.
Gustavo Cañete has been Sportivo Carapeguá's head coach since 25 August, with one away win and one home loss in his first two league matches.
The short tenure means Carapeguá's selection and tactical baseline under Cañete is still being established, so their season-long results may not fully reflect how they will set up here. The mixed start offers no clear pattern for this match.
- ABC Color reported on 25 August that Gustavo Adalberto Cañete had taken charge of Sportivo Carapeguá, replacing Marco Antonio Prieto.
- ABC Color listed Cañete as Carapeguá's coach for the 30 August 1-0 win at 12 de Junio.
- The APF listed Cañete as Carapeguá's coach for the 4 September 3-2 loss to Paraguarí.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 22:25 · Europe/BucharestABC Color: Gustavo Cañete asume la conducción del Sportivo Carapeguáwww.abc.com.py · 25 Aug 2026ABC Color: Carapeguá sorprende al puntero 12 de Junio en su casawww.abc.com.py · 30 Aug 2026APF: Paraguarí celebra en el epílogowww.apf.org.py · 4 Sep 2026
Sportivo Carapegua are ninth in the table with 28 points and a goal difference of -11.
Their home defensive record is poor, with 16 goals conceded in 11 matches. Benjamin Aceval have scored 21 goals away from home, so they have the tools to trouble this defense. However, Sportivo Carapegua have kept clean sheets in some home wins, so the weakness is not constant.
- Sportivo Carapegua have conceded 16 goals in 11 home matches.
- Benjamin Aceval have scored 21 goals in 11 away matches.
Benjamín Aceval start round 23 fourth on 39 points, five behind the joint leaders and three behind second-placed Deportivo Santaní.
A win would keep them in direct contact with the two automatic-promotion places, so the away side has a clear incentive to push for all three points. The table gap is small enough that this match can materially change their promotion outlook.
- The APF confirmed Benjamín Aceval's 1-1 draw with 12 de Junio in round 22 and their total of 39 points.
- D10 reported that Santaní had 42 points and the two leaders had 44 after that round.
- The APF's 2026 competition information states that the champion and runner-up gain promotion to the Copa de Primera.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 22:25 · Europe/BucharestAPF: Paridad en el clásico chaqueñowww.apf.org.py · 6 Sep 2026D10: Intermedia: Paridad en clásico chaqueñod10.ultimahora.com · 6 Sep 2026APF: Árbitros para el inicio de la División Intermedia 2026www.apf.org.py · 3 Apr 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Benjamin Aceval's stronger away form and promotion motivation give them the edge over a mid-table Carapegua side.
- Benjamin Aceval away record: 6W-2D-3L, 21 goals for, 14 against in 11 away matches
- Sportivo Carapegua home record: 5W-1D-5L, 14 goals for, 16 against in 11 home matches
- H2H last meeting: Benjamin Aceval won 2-0 at home on 2026-05-21
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBenjamin AcevalEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Carapegua's inconsistent home form makes the double chance on the away side a safer play.
- Benjamin Aceval away record: 6W-2D-3L, 21 goals for, 14 against in 11 away matches
- Sportivo Carapegua home record: 5W-1D-5L, 14 goals for, 16 against in 11 home matches
- Carapegua have lost 5 of 11 home games this season
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Benjamin AcevalEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first half scoring rates, making a level score at the break plausible.
- Carapegua have drawn at half time in 27% of matches
- Benjamin Aceval have drawn at half time in 33% of matches
- Both teams average 0.5 first half goals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Benjamin Aceval's superior away form may translate into a stronger second half performance.
- Benjamin Aceval have a positive goal difference in away matches (+7)
- Carapegua have a negative goal difference at home (-2)
- Benjamin Aceval tend to score more in the second half
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostBenjamin AcevalEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by an away win is a plausible scenario given the teams' profiles.
- Carapegua have drawn at half time in 27% of matches
- Benjamin Aceval have won 6 of 11 away matches
- H2H last meeting: Benjamin Aceval won 2-0
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Benjamin AcevalEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown the consistency to win both halves, making 'No' a strong play.
- Carapegua have won both halves in only 1 of 15 recent matches
- Benjamin Aceval have won both halves in only 2 of 15 recent matches
- Both teams rarely dominate an entire match
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Carapegua's tendency to trail at half time supports the away side or draw in the first half.
- Carapegua have trailed at half time in 53% of matches
- Benjamin Aceval have led at half time in 13% of matches and drawn in 33%
- Carapegua's first half goal difference is negative
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Benjamin AcevalEstimated chance65%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have trended towards higher scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Carapegua home matches average 2.73 total goals (30 goals in 11 games)
- Benjamin Aceval away matches average 3.18 total goals (35 goals in 11 games)
- Both teams have scored in 8 of Carapegua's last 15 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability and defensive vulnerabilities, making BTTS likely.
- Carapegua have scored in 11 of their last 15 matches
- Benjamin Aceval have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches
- Carapegua have conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, with Carapegua especially vulnerable in the first half.
- Carapegua first half goals: 0.5 per match, first half goals conceded: 1.1 per match
- Benjamin Aceval first half goals: 0.5 per match, first half goals conceded: 0.7 per match
- Carapegua have trailed at half time in 53% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half often sees more goals as both teams push for results, but confidence is low due to limited half-specific data.
- Carapegua average 1.1 goals for and 1.6 goals against overall
- Benjamin Aceval average 1.6 goals for and 1.5 goals against overall
- Second half goals are common in matches involving these teams
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low first half scoring rates for both teams suggest BTTS in the first half is unlikely.
- Carapegua first half goals: 0.5 per match, first half goals conceded: 1.1 per match
- Benjamin Aceval first half goals: 0.5 per match, first half goals conceded: 0.7 per match
- Both teams scoring in the first half is uncommon in their recent matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Prediction history

Sportivo Carapegua has fulfilled Over 2.5 in 3 of 5 recent matches

Sportivo Carapegua has fulfilled Over 2.5 in 3 of 5 recent matches, with an average estimated probability of 57%. The fulfilled predictions occurred at home in 2 of 3 matches and away in 1 of 2, showing slightly better home performance. The current probability of 55% is within the historical range of 55–60%.

Recent evidence for Sportivo Carapegua5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Division Intermedia