Liga NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

Malacateco2CD Suchitepequez0

HT 0–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 01:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Sep 2026, 04:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Malacateco are favored at home but the odds offer no value on the match winner or double chance.

The best edges are on Over 2.5 goals (+8.5 points) and Both Teams to Score (+6.2 points), with both teams showing consistent scoring and conceding trends.

Context

Malacateco is the home team in this match, but their recent away form shows a clear pattern of low scoring.
In their last four away matches, Malacateco lost to Aurora 0-1 on 2026-08-30, lost to Comunicaciones 2-4 on 2026-08-16, and lost to Guastatoya 0-4 on 2026-08-02. They only managed two goals across those three defeats. This suggests that when playing away from home, Malacateco often struggles to create and convert chances. However, this match is at home, so their away form may not directly apply, but it indicates a general scoring weakness that could persist.
- Lost to Aurora 0-1 on 2026-08-30 (away).
- Lost to Comunicaciones 2-4 on 2026-08-16 (away).
- Lost to Guastatoya 0-4 on 2026-08-02 (away).
CD Suchitepequez is the away team in this match, and their recent away record shows defensive struggles.
In their last three away matches, CD Suchitepequez lost to Aurora 2-3 on 2026-08-22, lost to Deportivo San Pedro 0-3 on 2026-08-09, and lost to Mixco 0-2 on 2026-08-01. They conceded a total of eight goals in those games. This pattern suggests that CD Suchitepequez often allows multiple goals when playing away from home. Malacateco may be able to exploit this defensive weakness, especially since they are playing at home.
- Lost to Aurora 2-3 on 2026-08-22 (away).
- Lost to Deportivo San Pedro 0-3 on 2026-08-09 (away).
- Lost to Mixco 0-2 on 2026-08-01 (away).
The head-to-head record between these teams shows a clear home advantage for Malacateco.
In the last three meetings at Malacateco's home ground, Malacateco won 1-0 on 2018-02-04, won 3-0 on 2017-07-30, and won 3-1 on 2018-04-04 (note: the last match was played at Suchitepéquez's home, but Malacateco was the away team and won). This indicates that Malacateco has historically performed well against CD Suchitepequez, especially when playing at home. However, these matches are from several years ago, so current form may be more relevant.
- Malacateco beat Suchitepéquez 1-0 on 2018-02-04 (home).
- Malacateco beat Suchitepéquez 3-0 on 2017-07-30 (home).
- Malacateco beat Suchitepéquez 3-1 on 2018-04-04 (away).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Malacateco

1.75fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Despite the negative edge, the predictor's medium confidence and strong home/away splits suggest the home side is undervalued relative to the away side's poor away record.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Malacateco's stronger home form and the historical home dominance in this fixture give them the edge.
- Malacateco home record in last 15: 4W 3D 1L (from 8 home matches)
- CD Suchitepequez away record in last 15: 1W 1D 5L (from 7 away matches)
- H2H last 5: home team won all 5 meetings
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMalacatecoEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Malacateco's home strength with Suchitepequez's poor away form makes the double chance a solid option.
- Malacateco home record: 4W 3D 1L
- CD Suchitepequez away record: 1W 1D 5L
- H2H: home team won all 5, but Malacateco's home draws show vulnerability
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMalacateco or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The high draw percentage in first halves for both teams makes a halftime draw plausible.
- Malacateco first half results: 13% leading, 60% trailing, 27% drawing
- CD Suchitepequez first half results: 17% leading, 33% trailing, 50% drawing
- Both teams often go into halftime level
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A halftime draw followed by a Malacateco win is a possible scenario given the home advantage.
- Malacateco has drawn at halftime in 27% of matches
- Malacateco has won 40% of home matches
- Suchitepequez has lost 71% of away matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/MalacatecoEstimated chance20%

Goals1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have trended towards higher scoring, and the H2H supports goals.
- Malacateco average total goals per match: 2.2 (0.9 for, 1.3 against)
- CD Suchitepequez average total goals per match: 2.8 (1.3 for, 1.5 against)
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have shown the ability to score while also conceding, making BTTS a reasonable pick.
- Malacateco scored in 9 of last 15 matches
- CD Suchitepequez scored in 10 of last 15 matches
- Both teams conceded regularly: Malacateco 1.3 goals against, Suchitepequez 1.5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first half goal averages suggest at least one goal is likely before the break.
- Malacateco first half goals average: 0.3 for, 0.9 against
- CD Suchitepequez first half goals average: 0.5 for, 1.0 against
- Combined first half goal average: 2.7 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring has been consistent for both teams, though confidence is lower due to limited data.
- Malacateco second half goals average: 0.6 for, 0.4 against
- CD Suchitepequez second half goals average: 0.8 for, 0.5 against
- Combined second half goal average: 2.3 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Malacateco's defensive record suggests they are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- Malacateco kept clean sheets in only 3 of last 15 matches
- CD Suchitepequez scored in 10 of last 15 matches
- Malacateco conceded in 12 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCD Suchitepequez to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suchitepequez's defensive struggles make a clean sheet unlikely.
- CD Suchitepequez kept clean sheets in only 2 of last 15 matches
- Malacateco scored in 9 of last 15 matches
- Suchitepequez conceded in 13 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMalacateco to scoreEstimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 57% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L3-1SuchitepéquezvMalacatecoApr 4, 2018LIG

W1-0MalacatecovSuchitepéquezFeb 4, 2018LIG

L3-1SuchitepéquezvMalacatecoOct 1, 2017LIG

W3-0MalacatecovSuchitepéquezJul 30, 2017LIG

L2-1SuchitepéquezvMalacatecoMar 19, 2017LIG

Malacateco: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Malacateco

L0-1AuroraAug 30LIG

W2-0Deportivo San PedroAug 24LIG

L2-4ComunicacionesAug 16LIG

D2-2XelajúAug 8LIG

L0-4GuastatoyaAug 2LIG

D1-1Cobán ImperialJul 26LIG

W1-0ComunicacionesApr 26LIG

L1-2Antigua GFCApr 20LIG

W2-0Cobán ImperialApr 17LIG

L0-1AchuapaApr 12LIG

L0-1XelajúApr 6LIG

W1-0GuastatoyaApr 3LIG

L0-1MunicipalMar 29LIG

D1-1AuroraMar 23LIG

L0-1MictlánMar 19LIG

CD Suchitepequez

W3-2Cobán ImperialAug 29LIG

L2-3AuroraAug 22LIG

L1-2MarquenseAug 16LIG

L0-3Deportivo San PedroAug 9LIG

L0-2MixcoAug 1LIG

D0-0ComunicacionesJul 26LIG

L1-2ChiquimulillaApr 27PRI

D0-0ChiquimulillaApr 24PRI

L0-3Juventud CopaleraApr 13PRI

W1-0San PedroApr 6PRI

W5-0Coatepecano IBApr 3PRI

L2-3DemocraciaMar 30PRI

W1-0IztapaMar 27PRI

W2-1QuichéMar 23PRI

D2-2PajapitaMar 15PRI

Squad & Injuries

Malacateco

27 available

Attackers10

Midfielders6

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

CD Suchitepequez

22 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Malacateco

Malacateco or Draw

Over 0.5

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 6 landed

Markets to Avoid

Malacateco

Malacateco or Draw

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Malacateco

CD Suchitepequez

Squad & Injuries

Malacateco

CD Suchitepequez