Heart of Midlothian2Dundee1

HT 0–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 27–4On targetOn target 7–1CornersCorners 14–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 18:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Hearts are favoured at home but the odds offer no value: the home win (1.50) and double chance (1.13) are overpriced relative to our model.

The short turnaround from the Edinburgh derby and Renaud's injury uncertainty add risk, while Dundee's missing forwards could keep the score down. Avoid the main markets; there is no clear betting edge.

Context

Hearts sit third in the Premiership with six points from three matches.
Their home record is perfect: wins over St Johnstone (2-1 on 29 August) and Dundee United (4-0 on 9 August). Dundee have lost one of two away matches, so Hearts' home form could give them an edge.
- Hearts beat St Johnstone 2-1 at home on 29 August 2026.
- Hearts beat Dundee United 4-0 at home on 9 August 2026.
- Hearts have scored 6 goals and conceded 1 in 2 home league matches.
Hearts midfielder Tom Renaud started four of the last five available lineups before being stretchered off in Vienna.
Renaud left the Rapid tie after 15 minutes and his availability for Dundee is unresolved. If he misses out, Tomas Magnusson is the direct replacement from that match, but Hearts may need to adjust their central midfield setup.
- Hearts’ official match report says Tom Renaud was forced off on a stretcher after a quarter of an hour against SK Rapid on 26 August.
- Tomas Magnusson replaced Renaud in the middle during that match.
- T. Renaud started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 18:37 · Europe/BucharestHearts match report: SK Rapid 2-2 Heartswww.heartsfc.co.uk · 26 Aug 2026
Dundee are fourth in the Premiership with six points from four matches.
They won 2-0 at Dundee United on 22 August but lost 1-0 at Celtic on 3 August. Against a strong home side like Hearts, their away inconsistency could be a factor.
- Dundee beat Dundee United 2-0 away on 22 August 2026.
- Dundee lost 1-0 at Celtic on 3 August 2026.
- Dundee have scored 2 and conceded 1 in 2 away league matches.
Dundee forward Simon Murray started three of the last five available lineups.
Murray remains out according to a 19 August report, reducing Dundee's established striker options. His absence may force a change in attacking selection for the trip to Tynecastle.
- The Courier reported that Simon Murray and Ash Hay remained out and would be unavailable for some time on 19 August.
- The report described Dundee as short on bodies before their Dundee derby.
- S. Murray started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 18:37 · Europe/BucharestThe Courier: Dundee get double fitness boost ahead of derby showdownwww.thecourier.co.uk · 19 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Heart of Midlothian

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Hearts' strong home form and historical dominance in this fixture give them a clear edge, supported by the structural home advantage.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Heart of Midlothian or Draw

1.13fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 88.5%

−8.5ppshort

Combining Hearts' unbeaten home record with Dundee's inconsistent away form makes a home win or draw highly likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams show attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities, but the odds already price in a high-scoring game, leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Both sides have consistent scoring records, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, offering no value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Hearts' strong first-half scoring record suggests a goal is likely, but the odds are heavily skewed, offering no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts' strong home form and historical dominance in this fixture give them a clear edge, supported by the structural home advantage.
- Hearts home record this season: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 6 goals for, 1 against.
- Hearts have won 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, including a 4-0 home win in Nov 2025.
- Dundee away record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss, 2 goals for, 1 against.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHeart of MidlothianEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Hearts' unbeaten home record with Dundee's inconsistent away form makes a home win or draw highly likely.
- Hearts have not lost at home this season (2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses).
- Dundee have lost 2 of their last 4 league matches.
- Hearts have won 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHeart of Midlothian or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hearts' superior first-half performance metrics give them a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Hearts have led at halftime in 47% of recent matches.
- Dundee have trailed at halftime in 33% of recent matches.
- Hearts average 0.9 first-half goals vs Dundee's 0.4.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostHeart of MidlothianEstimated chance40%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities, making a high-scoring match likely.
- Hearts average 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match in recent form.
- Dundee average 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match in recent form.
- Hearts' last 5 home matches have produced 3+ goals in 3 of them.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have consistent scoring records and defensive weaknesses, suggesting both are likely to find the net.
- Hearts have conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Dundee have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts' strong first-half scoring record and Dundee's tendency to concede early make a first-half goal likely.
- Hearts average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Dundee average 0.4 first-half goals per match but concede 0.6 first-half goals.
- Hearts have led at halftime in 47% of recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half often opens up as teams push for results, and both sides have decent second-half scoring rates.
- Hearts average 0.9 second-half goals per match (total 1.8 minus 0.9 first-half).
- Dundee average 1.3 second-half goals per match (total 1.7 minus 0.4 first-half).
- Both teams have shown late-game scoring in recent matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average suggests a total above 9.5 is plausible.
- Hearts average 6.4 corners per match and concede 4.4 opponent corners.
- Dundee average 4.9 corners per match and concede 5.1 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners in recent matches: 10.8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce a steady number of shots on target, making a total above 8.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Hearts average 4.4 shots on target per match.
- Dundee average 4.7 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target: 9.1.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be competitive, and both teams' disciplinary records suggest a moderate card count.
- Hearts average 1.8 yellow cards per match.
- Dundee average 1.5 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.3.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%