Liga NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

Coban Imperial0Guastatoya1

HT 0–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Sep 2026, 04:46 · Europe/Bucharest

The draw at 3.30 is the only market with a positive edge (34% model vs 30.3% implied), but confidence is medium.

Most other markets are priced efficiently or offer negative value, so avoid the short-priced home win and low-scoring props.

Context

Coban Imperial are a Liga Nacional side with a recent record of one win and three losses in their last four matches.
They lost 3-2 to Suchitepéquez on 29 August, 2-1 to Marquense on 24 August, and 2-0 to Antigua GFC on 19 August, with their only win in that run a 3-2 home victory over Mixco on 15 August. This poor run suggests defensive issues, as they conceded at least two goals in each of those three defeats. Guastatoya may look to exploit that vulnerability, though Coban Imperial's home win over Mixco shows they can still score at home.
- Lost 3-2 to Suchitepéquez on 2026-08-29.
- Lost 2-1 to Marquense on 2026-08-24.
- Lost 2-0 to Antigua GFC on 2026-08-19.
- Won 3-2 against Mixco on 2026-08-15.
Guastatoya are a Liga Nacional side with a recent record of one win and two losses in their last three matches.
They lost 2-1 at home to Marquense on 29 August and 4-2 away to Mixco on 23 August, but beat Municipal 1-0 at home on 15 August. The 4-2 loss to Mixco shows defensive problems away from home, where they conceded four goals. Coban Imperial may target that weakness, though Guastatoya's home win over Municipal indicates they can be solid at times.
- Lost 2-1 to Marquense on 2026-08-29.
- Lost 4-2 to Mixco on 2026-08-23.
- Won 1-0 against Municipal on 2026-08-15.
Guastatoya midfielder D. Sanchez started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
His three-match suspension after a direct red card against Marquense removes a regular central-midfield selection option. Guastatoya must redistribute midfield responsibilities, though the specific replacement and tactical adjustment are not yet established.
- Guatefutbol reported on 3 September that Liga Nacional's disciplinary body imposed a three-match ban on Sánchez after a direct red card.
- Antorcha Deportiva independently reported the same three-match suspension, citing the disciplinary ruling.
- Emisoras Unidas reported that Sánchez was sent off after a Football Video Support review in Guastatoya's 29 August match against Marquense.
- D. Sanchez started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 5 Sep 2026, 04:44 · Europe/BucharestGuatefutbol — Fuerte castigo para figura de Guastatoyaguatefutbol.com · 3 Sep 2026Antorcha Deportiva — Fuerte castigo para Denilson Sánchezantorchadeportiva.com · 3 Sep 2026Emisoras Unidas — Marquense sorprende a Guastatoya y se lleva un triunfoemisorasunidas.com · 29 Aug 2026
Coban Imperial and Guastatoya have met five times in the last two years.
On 12 April 2026 they drew 1-1 at Coban Imperial, and on 22 February 2026 Guastatoya won 2-0 at home. Earlier, Coban Imperial won 2-1 at home on 4 October 2025, Guastatoya won 1-0 at home on 27 July 2025, and they drew 0-0 at Coban Imperial on 2 April 2025. The pattern shows the home team has never lost in these five matches, which could give Coban Imperial a slight edge in this home fixture.
- 2026-04-12: Coban Imperial 1-1 Guastatoya.
- 2026-02-22: Guastatoya 2-0 Coban Imperial.
- 2025-10-04: Coban Imperial 2-1 Guastatoya.
- 2025-07-27: Guastatoya 0-1 Coban Imperial.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.10fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 47.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have similar half-time profiles and the H2H often sees a level first half.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.67fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' scoring rates are modest and the H2H has been low-scoring, making under 2.5 goals likely.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have frequent scoring blanks and the H2H often sees at least one side fail to score.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.43fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making under 1.5 first-half goals probable.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Guastatoya to score

1.25fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Coban Imperial's defensive record is poor and Guastatoya usually finds the net.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar mediocre form and the H2H shows frequent draws, making a stalemate the most likely single outcome.
- Coban Imperial home form: 2W 2D 3L in last 7 home matches, scoring 1.0 goals per game and conceding 1.3.
- Guastatoya away form: 2W 1D 4L in last 7 away matches, scoring 0.9 goals per game and conceding 1.3.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 Coban wins, 1 Guastatoya win; last meeting ended 1-1.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Coban Imperial's home resilience and Guastatoya's away struggles support a home-or-draw double chance.
- Coban Imperial unbeaten in 3 of last 5 home matches (2W 1D 2L).
- Guastatoya lost 4 of last 7 away matches.
- H2H: Coban Imperial unbeaten in 4 of last 5 meetings (2W 2D 1L).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCoban Imperial or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar half-time profiles and the H2H often sees a level first half.
- Coban Imperial led at half-time in 27% of matches and trailed in 20%.
- Guastatoya led at half-time in 27% and trailed in 27%.
- H2H last 5: 3 matches were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is a plausible but low-probability outcome given the teams' tendencies.
- Coban Imperial drew 4 of last 15 matches.
- Guastatoya drew 3 of last 15 matches.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, one of which was 0-0 at half-time and full-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring rates are modest and the H2H has been low-scoring, making under 2.5 goals likely.
- Coban Imperial average 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match overall.
- Guastatoya average 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match overall.
- H2H last 5: 3 matches had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have frequent scoring blanks and the H2H often sees at least one side fail to score.
- Coban Imperial failed to score in 5 of last 15 matches.
- Guastatoya failed to score in 4 of last 15 matches.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in only 2 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making under 1.5 first-half goals probable.
- Coban Imperial average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Guastatoya average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.0 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring tends to be higher for both teams, but the edge is marginal.
- Coban Imperial average 0.4 second-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Guastatoya average 0.8 second-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Combined second-half goal average is 1.4 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Coban Imperial's defensive record is poor and Guastatoya usually finds the net.
- Coban Imperial kept only 2 clean sheets in last 15 matches.
- Guastatoya scored in 11 of last 15 matches.
- H2H: Guastatoya scored in 3 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGuastatoya to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Guastatoya's away defence is leaky and Coban Imperial often scores at home.
- Guastatoya kept only 3 clean sheets in last 15 matches.
- Coban Imperial scored in 10 of last 15 matches.
- H2H: Coban Imperial scored in 4 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCoban Imperial to scoreEstimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

No exact double chance quote is available in the attached odds data, so this market cannot be assessed.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D1-1Cobán ImperialvGuastatoyaApr 12, 2026LIG

L2-0GuastatoyavCobán ImperialFeb 22, 2026LIG

L2-1Cobán ImperialvGuastatoyaOct 4, 2025LIG

W0-1GuastatoyavCobán ImperialJul 27, 2025LIG

D0-0Cobán ImperialvGuastatoyaApr 2, 2025LIG

Coban Imperial: 2 clean sheetsGuastatoya: 2 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Coban Imperial

L2-3SuchitepéquezAug 29LIG

L1-2MarquenseAug 24LIG

L0-2Antigua GFCAug 19LIG

W3-2MixcoAug 15LIG

L0-2MunicipalAug 9LIG

D1-1MalacatecoJul 26LIG

L0-2MixcoMay 2LIG

W2-0MixcoApr 29LIG

L1-2XelajúApr 26LIG

W3-1AchuapaApr 19LIG

L0-2MalacatecoApr 17LIG

D1-1GuastatoyaApr 12LIG

D0-0MunicipalApr 6LIG

D0-0AuroraApr 1LIG

L0-1MictlánMar 29LIG

Guastatoya

L1-2MarquenseAug 29LIG

L2-4MixcoAug 23LIG

W1-0MunicipalAug 15LIG

L0-2Antigua GFCAug 9LIG

W4-0MalacatecoAug 2LIG

W1-0AuroraJul 25LIG

L0-2MunicipalMay 3LIG

L0-1MunicipalMay 1LIG

W4-0MarquenseApr 26LIG

L0-1ComunicacionesApr 21LIG

W3-0Antigua GFCApr 16LIG

D1-1Cobán ImperialApr 12LIG

W3-1AchuapaApr 7LIG

L0-1MalacatecoApr 3LIG

D1-1XelajúMar 29LIG

Squad & Injuries

Coban Imperial

30 available

Attackers4

Midfielders14

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Guastatoya

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders16

Defenders3

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Under 1.5

Guastatoya to score

Coban Imperial to score

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 6 landed

Markets to Avoid

Under 1.5

Guastatoya to score

Coban Imperial to score

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Coban Imperial

Guastatoya

Squad & Injuries

Coban Imperial

Guastatoya