Liga Panameña de FútbolFull time

Predictions graded

Alianza FC Panama1San Francisco FC1

HT 0–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 23:15 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges4–357%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 05:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Alianza's home invincibility and San Francisco's poor away record make Alianza or Draw at 1.95 the top value play (model 70% vs implied 51%).

'No' on Win Both Halves at 1.91 is also a strong edge (model 80% vs implied 52%), while Over 2.5 goals and BTTS offer smaller but positive value.

Context

Alianza FC Panama is 2nd in the Clausura table with 27 points from 16 matches.
Their home record is strong: 4 wins, 4 draws, and no losses in 8 games, scoring 18 and conceding 13. This suggests they are difficult to beat at home, but the four draws also show they often fail to turn dominance into wins. San Francisco FC has a mixed away record with 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, so they may find it hard to break down Alianza's home resilience.
- Alianza FC Panama home record in Clausura: 4 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses in 8 matches.
- Alianza FC Panama scored 18 goals and conceded 13 at home.
Alianza FC Panama are managing recovery after late-August international travel, including training at the Luis Ernesto "Cascarita" Tapia stadium ahead of Jornada 7.
The travel and international matches could affect freshness and rotation, potentially reducing late-game intensity. Goalkeeper Jean Ambuila noted the group were recovering, so the coaching staff may adjust selection to manage fatigue.
- TVMAX reported that Alianza had been training at the Luis Ernesto "Cascarita" Tapia stadium ahead of Jornada 7.
- Goalkeeper Jean Ambuila told TVMAX that the group were recovering from travel and their international matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 05:03 · Europe/BucharestTVMAX: Alianza prepare for San Franciscowww.tvn-2.com · 4 Sep 2026
San Francisco FC is 9th in Clausura with 20 points from 16 matches.
Their recent form is positive: wins against Plaza Amador (4-1 on 2026-08-30), Independiente de La Chorrera (2-1 on 2026-08-15), and Herrera (3-1 on 2026-08-08), with a draw against Veraguas (3-3 on 2026-08-23). This run shows they can score goals and compete with mid-table teams. However, their away record is less convincing, with only 2 wins in 8 away games, so this form may not fully transfer to this match.
- San Francisco FC beat Plaza Amador 4-1 at home on 2026-08-30.
- San Francisco FC beat Independiente de La Chorrera 2-1 at home on 2026-08-15.
- San Francisco FC beat Herrera 3-1 at home on 2026-08-08.
Alianza defender R. Perdomo supplied every Central American Cup goal assist, with three assists across the club's three goals in that competition.
Perdomo's recent final-pass production gives Alianza a specific chance-creation route. However, he started only 1 of the last 5 fixtures with available lineups, with O. Campos often occupying the same position, so his involvement may depend on selection.
- Alianza's 1 September post credited Reyniel Perdomo with three assists in the 2026 Central American Cup.
- The club stated that all three of its goals in that competition were assisted by Perdomo.
- R. Perdomo started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- O. Campos started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when R. Perdomo did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 05:03 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Alianza's strong home form and San Francisco's inconsistent away record give the hosts a slight edge, though recent H2H draws suggest caution.
- Alianza are unbeaten at home in Clausura with 4 wins and 4 draws in 8 matches.
- Alianza have won 4 of their last 5 home league matches.
- San Francisco have lost 3 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlianza FC PanamaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alianza's home invincibility and San Francisco's poor away win rate make the double chance a strong play.
- Alianza are unbeaten at home in Clausura (4W, 4D).
- San Francisco have won only 2 of 8 away matches.
- Alianza have lost only 1 of 16 Clausura matches overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAlianza FC Panama or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Francisco's superior first-half performance metrics give them a slight edge to lead at the break.
- San Francisco led at half-time in 53% of recent matches.
- Alianza trailed at half-time in 40% of recent matches.
- San Francisco average 1.2 first-half goals vs Alianza's 0.5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSan Francisco FCEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an Alianza win is plausible given their home resilience and San Francisco's tendency to fade.
- Alianza have drawn 9 of 16 Clausura matches.
- Alianza are unbeaten at home.
- San Francisco have drawn 5 of 16 matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Alianza FC PanamaEstimated chance20%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown the consistency to dominate both halves, making this a safe 'No'.
- Alianza have not won both halves in any of their last 5 home matches.
- San Francisco have not won both halves in any of their last 5 away matches.
- Both teams have mixed first-half and second-half performances.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Francisco's strong first-half record makes them unlikely to be behind at the break.
- San Francisco led at half-time in 53% of recent matches.
- Alianza trailed at half-time in 40% of recent matches.
- San Francisco have not lost at half-time in 7 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSan Francisco FC or DrawEstimated chance65%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown attacking intent in recent meetings and Alianza's home games tend to be high-scoring.
- Alianza's home matches average 3.9 total goals (18 scored, 13 conceded in 8 games).
- San Francisco's away matches average 2.6 total goals (10 scored, 11 conceded in 8 games).
- Last H2H meeting ended 3-3.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides consistently find the net in this fixture and have decent scoring records in their respective home/away splits.
- Alianza have scored in 7 of 8 home matches.
- San Francisco have scored in 6 of 8 away matches.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Francisco's strong first-half scoring record and Alianza's tendency to concede early suggest at least one first-half goal.
- Alianza average 0.5 first-half goals per match overall.
- San Francisco average 1.2 first-half goals per match overall.
- San Francisco led at half-time in 53% of their recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score after the break, but the estimate is uncertain due to limited half-by-half data.
- Alianza's home matches average 2.0 second-half goals (estimated from total and first-half data).
- San Francisco's away matches average 1.4 second-half goals (estimated).
- Recent H2H matches have seen late goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first-half scoring patterns suggest it is more likely that only one team scores before the break.
- Alianza average 0.5 first-half goals and concede 0.6 first-half goals.
- San Francisco average 1.2 first-half goals and concede 0.6 first-half goals.
- Only 2 of Alianza's last 5 home matches saw both teams score in the first half.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 3D · 0W

D3-3Alianza FCvSan Francisco FCMar 3, 2026LIG

W1-2San Francisco FCvAlianza FCNov 22, 2025LIG

D1-1Alianza FCvSan Francisco FCNov 16, 2025LIG

D1-1Alianza FCvSan Francisco FCSep 16, 2025LIG

W1-2San Francisco FCvAlianza FCMar 29, 2025LIG

Alianza FC Panama unbeaten in 5 meetings3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Alianza FC Panama	16	6	9	1	26-20	27	WDDDD
9	San Francisco FC	16	5	5	6	22-25	20	WWLDW

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Alianza FC Panama

D2-2Union CocleAug 30LIG

L0-2MixcoAug 28CON

W2-0Tauro FCAug 25LIG

L1-3CD OlimpiaAug 21CON

L2-4Plaza AmadorAug 16LIG

W1-0UMECITAug 14CON

D0-0Sporting San MiguelitoAug 9LIG

L1-2Deportivo SaprissaAug 6CON

W1-0CD Arabe UnidoAug 1LIG

D0-0UMECITJul 25LIG

D0-0VeraguasMay 10LIG

W3-2Sporting San MiguelitoMay 3LIG

D2-2CD Arabe UnidoApr 26LIG

D1-1Tauro FCApr 18LIG

D1-1Plaza AmadorApr 12LIG

San Francisco FC

W4-1Plaza AmadorAug 30LIG

D3-3VeraguasAug 23LIG

W2-1Independiente de La ChorreraAug 15LIG

W3-1HerreraAug 8LIG

L1-2Union CocleAug 2LIG

W2-1Deportivo UniversitarioJul 26LIG

W5-2Deportivo UniversitarioMay 2LIG

W2-1HerreraApr 26LIG

L0-1Union CocleApr 19LIG

D0-0Independiente de La ChorreraApr 11LIG

W1-0VeraguasApr 4LIG

W1-0Sporting San MiguelitoMar 29LIG

L1-4Tauro FCMar 21LIG

L0-1CD Arabe UnidoMar 14LIG

L1-2Plaza AmadorMar 8LIG

Squad & Injuries

Alianza FC Panama

29 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

San Francisco FC

29 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alianza FC Panama

Alianza FC Panama or Draw

No

San Francisco FC or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result3 of 6 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Alianza FC Panama

San Francisco FC

Squad & Injuries

Alianza FC Panama

San Francisco FC