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Predictions graded

America de Cali3Alianza Valledupar0

HT 2–0Thu 3 Sept 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 15–7On targetOn target 6–2CornersCorners 3–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 01:12 · Europe/Bucharest

América de Cali are strong favourites at home, but the match winner odds offer no value.

The best edge is Both Teams to Score No at 1.65 (+1.4 points), supported by América's home clean sheet rate and Alianza's away scoring struggles. Avoid Under 1.5 first-half goals, where the market is overpriced relative to our estimate.

Context

America de Cali is fourth in the Apertura standings and first in the Clausura with 17 points from seven matches.
Their home record in the Apertura shows six wins and three draws in nine matches, with 15 goals scored and only three conceded. This defensive solidity at home is a key factor against an Alianza Valledupar side that has scored only six goals in ten away matches this season. The sample is from the Apertura, but the Clausura home form has also been perfect with three wins from three, scoring 12 goals and conceding two.
- America de Cali home record in Apertura: 6 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses, 15 goals for, 3 goals against.
- America de Cali Clausura home record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 12 goals for, 2 goals against.
Alianza's professional squad is now led by interim coaches Leonardo Torres and Diego Estrada after the club ended Camilo Ayala's tenure on 30 August.
The change removes the previous coaching staff's authority over selection and in-game decisions just days before kickoff. Torres and Estrada step up from youth roles, so their tactical instructions and lineup choices are unproven at this level. That uncertainty could affect how Alianza sets up against América, though the players' familiarity with the interim coaches is not established.
- Alianza’s reported club statement said Camilo Ayala, assistant Edward Muñoz and fitness coach Javier Arango would not continue with the professional team.
- Independent reports identify Sub-17 coach Leonardo Torres and youth-football director Diego Estrada as the interim leaders.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 01:10 · Europe/BucharestEl Pilónelpilon.com.co · 30 Aug 2026Deportes RCNwww.deportesrcn.com · 1 Sep 2026
Alianza Valledupar is 17th in the Apertura and 18th in the Clausura with just two points from six matches.
Their away record in the Apertura shows one win, three draws, and six losses, with six goals scored and 18 conceded. In the Clausura, they have played one away match and lost it 1-0. Recent league form is poor: they lost to Atletico Nacional 5-1 at home on August 30, lost to Cucuta 1-0 away on August 26, and drew 0-0 with Deportivo Pereira on August 22. This suggests they struggle to create chances and defend on the road, which is a major concern against a strong home side.
- Alianza Valledupar away record in Apertura: 1 win, 3 draws, 6 losses, 6 goals for, 18 goals against.
- Recent league results: lost 5-1 to Atletico Nacional (Aug 30), lost 1-0 to Cucuta (Aug 26), drew 0-0 with Deportivo Pereira (Aug 22).
The teams have met five times in the Primera A since March 2024.
In the most recent meeting on February 28, 2026, America de Cali won 3-0 away. In the previous five matches, America de Cali won three times, Alianza Valledupar won once, and one match was drawn. This recent head-to-head advantage, especially the convincing away win, suggests America de Cali knows how to break down Alianza Valledupar's defense.
- Feb 28, 2026: Alianza Valledupar 0-3 America de Cali.
- Aug 31, 2025: Alianza Valledupar 1-0 America de Cali.
- Mar 15, 2025: America de Cali 3-0 Alianza Valledupar.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
America de Cali's strong home form and Alianza's poor away record, combined with recent H2H dominance, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- America de Cali home record: 6W 3D 0L, 15 goals for, 3 against in 9 matches
- Alianza away record: 1W 3D 6L, 6 goals for, 18 against in 10 matches
- America de Cali last 5 form: DWDWW; Alianza last 5 form: LLDLL
- H2H last 5: America de Cali won 3, Alianza won 1, 1 draw
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAmerica de CaliEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given America de Cali's unbeaten home record and Alianza's away struggles, the double chance of home win or draw is very safe.
- America de Cali unbeaten at home this season (9 matches)
- Alianza has only 1 away win in 10 matches
- America de Cali has not lost at home in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAmerica de Cali or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
America de Cali's slight first-half edge and Alianza's tendency to trail at the break support a home lead at half-time, though confidence is low.
- America de Cali leading at half-time in 20% of matches
- Alianza trailing at half-time in 33% of matches
- America de Cali first-half goal difference: +0.1 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonAmerica de CaliEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given America de Cali's home dominance, a home lead at half-time and full-time is plausible, though not highly probable.
- America de Cali home win rate: 67%
- America de Cali leading at half-time in 20% of matches
- Alianza trailing at half-time in 33% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonAmerica de Cali/America de CaliEstimated chance48%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined scoring and conceding rates suggest a moderate likelihood of over 2.5 goals, especially with America de Cali's attacking strength at home.
- America de Cali averages 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded overall
- Alianza averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded overall
- America de Cali home matches average 2.0 total goals (15 for, 3 against in 9)
- Alianza away matches average 2.4 total goals (6 for, 18 against in 10)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
America de Cali's strong home defense and Alianza's away scoring struggles make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- America de Cali has kept clean sheets in 6 of 9 home matches
- Alianza has failed to score in 5 of 10 away matches
- America de Cali conceded only 3 goals at home all season
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
America de Cali's home defensive solidity and Alianza's poor away scoring record support a home clean sheet.
- America de Cali home clean sheet rate: 6/9 (67%)
- Alianza away scoring rate: 0.6 goals per game
- Alianza failed to score in 5 of 10 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAlianza Valledupar not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be cautious in the first half, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- America de Cali averages 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- Alianza averages 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded
- Combined first-half average total goals: 1.15
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slightly higher scoring rates in the second half, especially with America de Cali's home attacking edge, give a marginal lean to over 1.5 second-half goals.
- America de Cali scores 1.0 second-half goals on average (total 1.6 minus first-half 0.6)
- Alianza concedes 0.9 second-half goals on average (total 1.5 minus first-half 0.6)
- America de Cali home matches have seen 2.0 total goals on average
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are close to the line, with America de Cali's home attacking style likely to push the total over 8.5.
- America de Cali averages 4.6 corners per match
- Alianza averages 3.8 corners per match
- Combined average corners: 8.4
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
America de Cali's corner generation and Alianza's tendency to concede corners away from home support a home corners over.
- America de Cali averages 4.6 corners per match overall
- America de Cali home matches have seen higher corner counts in recent games
- Alianza concedes an average of 5.0 opponent corners per away match
BetBugs · Home CornerslostAmerica de Cali over 4.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high yellow card averages, making over 4.5 total cards likely.
- America de Cali averages 3.1 yellow cards per match
- Alianza averages 3.5 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 6.6
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 91% leaves no cushion vs our 88% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W0-3Alianza ValleduparvAmerica de CaliFeb 28, 2026PRI

L1-0Alianza ValleduparvAmerica de CaliAug 31, 2025PRI

W3-0America de CalivAlianza ValleduparMar 15, 2025PRI

W0-1Alianza ValleduparvAmerica de CaliSep 23, 2024PRI

W2-0America de CalivAlianza ValleduparMar 10, 2024PRI

America de Cali: 4 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	America de Cali Post season qualification	19	10	3	6	25-15	33	DWDWW
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	13-27	17	LLDLL

16pt gap between teams

Recent Form

America de Cali

D2-2JaguaresAug 29PRI

W4-2JuniorAug 26PRI

D0-0Santa FeAug 22PRI

W1-0Atletico NacionalAug 10PRI

W1-0Once CaldasAug 6PRI

W7-0ChicoAug 2PRI

D1-1Real CartagenaJul 30COP

W2-0Internacional de BogotaJul 26PRI

W2-1Real CartagenaJul 22COP

L1-2Houston DynamoJul 16FRI

W1-0U.N.A.M. - PumasJul 12FRI

W1-0Santos LagunaJul 10FRI

D0-0MacaraMay 29CON

D1-1TigreMay 20CON

L0-4Santa FeMay 13PRI

Alianza Valledupar

L1-5Atletico NacionalAug 30PRI

L0-1CucutaAug 26PRI

D0-0Deportivo PereiraAug 22PRI

L2-3BucaramangaAug 9PRI

L1-2Deportes TolimaAug 1PRI

D1-1Fortaleza FCJul 26PRI

W2-1BucaramangaMay 24COP

L0-1Deportivo CaliMay 21COP

W3-0Real SantanderMay 16COP

D1-1PopayanMay 8COP

D2-2MillonariosMay 3PRI

D0-0LlanerosApr 26PRI

L0-1Independiente MedellinApr 19PRI

L1-2Internacional de BogotaApr 13PRI

W3-2Deportivo PereiraApr 6PRI

Squad & Injuries

America de Cali

34 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Alianza Valledupar

36 available

Attackers11

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

America de Cali

America de Cali at half-time / America de Cali at full-time

No

Under 1.5

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

America de Cali or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

America de Cali

Alianza Valledupar

Squad & Injuries

America de Cali

Alianza Valledupar