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Predictions graded

Academia Puerto Cabello1Deportivo La Guaira1

HT 0–1Thu 3 Sept 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 23:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Over 2.5 goals at 2.30 (model edge +11.5 points) and Both Teams to Score at 2.00 (edge +8 points).

Avoid the home win at 2.10 and first-half Over 0.5 at 1.45, as the odds offer no value.

Context

Deportivo La Guaira are the current leaders of the Venezuelan Primera División with 27 points from 13 matches.
They have won 7 and drawn 6, scoring 15 goals and conceding only 6. This unbeaten run includes a 4-1 away win at Rayo Zuliano on 22 August and a 6-1 home win over Zamora FC on 16 August. Their away record is also strong with 4 wins and 3 draws from 7 matches, so they travel with confidence.
- Deportivo La Guaira are 1st in the league with 27 points from 13 matches (7W, 6D, 0L).
- They have scored 15 goals and conceded only 6, the best defensive record in the league.
- Away record: 4 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses in 7 matches.
- Recent form: WDWDW, including a 4-1 away win at Rayo Zuliano on 22 August 2026.
Academia Puerto Cabello are 8th in the league with 17 points, but their home record is more impressive.
At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 11 goals and conceding 6. Their recent home results include a 3-0 win over Anzoátegui FC on 31 August and a 2-0 win over Rayo Zuliano on 15 August. This suggests they can compete with top teams on their own ground.
- Home record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in 6 matches.
- Scored 11 goals and conceded 6 at home.
- Recent home wins: 3-0 vs Anzoátegui FC (31 Aug 2026) and 2-0 vs Rayo Zuliano (15 Aug 2026).
The teams have met three times in the league in 2026.
Academia Puerto Cabello won 2-0 away on 31 May 2026 and drew 1-1 at home on 3 May 2026. The other meeting on 13 March 2026 ended 0-0. This recent record gives Academia Puerto Cabello a psychological edge, though Deportivo La Guaira's current form is stronger.
- 31 May 2026: Deportivo La Guaira 0-2 Academia Puerto Cabello (away win).
- 3 May 2026: Academia Puerto Cabello 1-1 Deportivo La Guaira (draw).
- 13 Mar 2026: Deportivo La Guaira 0-0 Academia Puerto Cabello (draw).
Deportivo La Guaira have been prolific in recent matches.
They scored 6 goals against Zamora FC on 16 August and 4 goals against Rayo Zuliano on 22 August. Their average of 1.7 goals per match is among the highest in the league, and they have scored in every league match this season except one.
- Average goals per match: 1.7.
- Recent high-scoring games: 6-1 vs Zamora FC (16 Aug 2026) and 4-1 vs Rayo Zuliano (22 Aug 2026).
- They have scored in 12 of 13 league matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Academia Puerto Cabello's perfect home record in the Clausura and strong recent form give them a solid edge, supported by their unbeaten H2H record.
- Home record in Clausura: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 8 goals for, 1 against
- Last 5 overall form: W, W, D, W, W (13 points from 15)
- H2H last 5: 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses against Deportivo La Guaira
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAcademia Puerto CabelloEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Academia Puerto Cabello's strong home form and unbeaten H2H record make them unlikely to lose, while Deportivo La Guaira's perfect away record adds some risk.
- Home record in Clausura: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses
- H2H last 5: 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses
- Deportivo La Guaira away record in Clausura: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAcademia Puerto Cabello or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Academia Puerto Cabello's tendency to lead at half-time at home gives them a slight edge, but the H2H first-half record is mixed.
- Academia Puerto Cabello led at half-time in 2 of 3 Clausura home matches
- Deportivo La Guaira trailed at half-time in 1 of 3 Clausura away matches
- H2H first-half results: 2 draws, 2 Academia Puerto Cabello leads, 1 Deportivo La Guaira lead
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonAcademia Puerto CabelloEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Academia Puerto Cabello's ability to hold leads at home supports this outcome, but the probability is modest given the competitive matchup.
- Academia Puerto Cabello led at half-time and won in 2 of 3 Clausura home matches
- Deportivo La Guaira trailed at half-time and lost in 1 of 3 Clausura away matches
- H2H: Academia Puerto Cabello won both matches where they led at half-time
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostAcademia Puerto Cabello/Academia Puerto CabelloEstimated chance30%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring home/away splits in the Clausura, and recent H2H meetings have frequently seen both teams score, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Academia Puerto Cabello home matches in Clausura average 3.0 total goals (8 for, 1 against in 3 games)
- Deportivo La Guaira away matches in Clausura average 3.67 total goals (8 for, 3 against in 3 games)
- Both teams have scored in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong scoring records in their respective home/away splits, and the H2H trend shows frequent goals from both sides.
- Academia Puerto Cabello home matches in Clausura: scored in all 3, conceded in 1
- Deportivo La Guaira away matches in Clausura: scored in all 3, conceded in 2
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half in their respective home/away splits, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Academia Puerto Cabello first-half goals in Clausura home matches: 4 in 3 games (1.33 per game)
- Deportivo La Guaira first-half goals in Clausura away matches: 3 in 3 games (1.0 per game)
- Combined first-half goal rate: 7 goals in 6 matches (1.17 per game)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second-half scoring rates for both teams are high, but the sample size is small, so confidence is low.
- Academia Puerto Cabello second-half goals in Clausura home matches: 4 in 3 games (1.33 per game)
- Deportivo La Guaira second-half goals in Clausura away matches: 5 in 3 games (1.67 per game)
- Combined second-half goal rate: 9 goals in 6 matches (1.5 per game)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are below 8.5, but the limited data and potential for an open game make this a speculative pick.
- Academia Puerto Cabello average corners in recent matches with data: 2.7 per game
- Deportivo La Guaira average corners in recent matches with data: 4.7 per game
- Combined average: 7.4 corners per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average a high number of yellow cards, suggesting a physical match with over 4.5 cards.
- Academia Puerto Cabello average yellow cards: 2.3 per game
- Deportivo La Guaira average yellow cards: 3.5 per game
- Combined average: 5.8 yellow cards per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

2W · 3D · 0W

W0-2Deportivo La GuairavPuerto CabelloMay 31, 2026PRI

D1-1Puerto CabellovDeportivo La GuairaMay 3, 2026PRI

D0-0Deportivo La GuairavPuerto CabelloMar 13, 2026PRI

W1-2Deportivo La GuairavPuerto CabelloJan 19, 2026FRI

D0-0Deportivo La GuairavPuerto CabelloNov 8, 2025PRI

Academia Puerto Cabello unbeaten in 5 meetingsAcademia Puerto Cabello: 3 clean sheetsDeportivo La Guaira: 2 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Academia Puerto Cabello Promotion - Liga FUTVE (Apertura - Quadrangular)	13	4	5	4	16-14	17	DWLLD
1	Deportivo La Guaira Promotion - Liga FUTVE (Apertura - Quadrangular)	13	7	6	0	15-6	27	WDWDW

10pt gap between teamsDeportivo La Guaira leads the league

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