Jupiler Pro LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Antwerp1Sint-Truiden4

HT 0–1Sun 30 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 18–19On targetOn target 8–7CornersCorners 6–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 17:04 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is Antwerp or Draw double chance at 1.45 (model 82% vs implied 69%, +13pt edge).

Second-half over 1.5 goals at 2.38 is also attractive (model 55% vs implied 42%, +13pt edge). Avoid first-half goals markets and the straight Antwerp win due to defensive concerns and Sint-Truiden's draw tendency.

Context

Antwerp are 4th in the Jupiler Pro League with 7 points from three matches. Sint-Truiden are 12th with 2 points from two draws.
Antwerp have won two and drawn one of their opening three league games, scoring 9 goals. Sint-Truiden have drawn both of their league matches, including a 3-3 away draw at Cercle Brugge on 14 August. The home side's stronger start may give them more confidence, but Sint-Truiden's ability to avoid defeat suggests they can be competitive.
- Antwerp are 4th with 7 points from 3 games (2W, 1D).
- Sint-Truiden are 12th with 2 points from 2 games (2D).
- Antwerp beat Kortrijk 3-0 away on 15 August and drew 4-4 with Genk at home on 22 August.
- Sint-Truiden drew 3-3 at Cercle Brugge on 14 August and 1-1 at home to Lommel United on 8 August.
Sint-Truiden forward Frédéric Soèllé was reported injured in the first leg against Omonia and was replaced by Baždar in the return-leg starting line-up.
His availability for Sunday remains unresolved, leaving uncertainty around Sint-Truiden's centre-forward selection. Without a later clearance, the coaching staff may need to plan for alternatives in attack.
- Reporting before the Omonia return said Frédéric Soèllé had suffered an injury in the first leg.
- STVV's official return-leg report lists Baždar in the starting attack in place of Soèllé.
To watchSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 11:03 · Europe/BucharestStarsporttvstarsporttv.be · 27 Aug 2026STVV Japan match reportstvv.jp · 28 Aug 2026
The teams have met five times since August 2024, with Antwerp winning three and drawing two.
In the most recent league meeting on 28 February 2026, Antwerp won 1-0 at home. They also won 1-0 away on 2 November 2025. Sint-Truiden's only positive result in that span was a 3-3 cup draw in December 2025. This pattern suggests Antwerp have had the edge in recent competitive matches.
- Antwerp beat Sint-Truiden 1-0 at home on 28 February 2026.
- Antwerp won 1-0 away at Sint-Truiden on 2 November 2025.
- The teams drew 3-3 in the Cup on 3 December 2025.
Sint-Truiden confirmed the sale of central defender Loïc Mbe Soh to Sparta Prague five days before this match.
His departure reduces Sint-Truiden's centre-back options and can affect defensive selection. The club has not indicated a direct replacement, so the back line may be reshaped.
- STVV announced on 25 August that Loïc Mbe Soh had joined Sparta Prague.
- The club described him as a central defender.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 11:03 · Europe/BucharestSTVVstvv.com · 25 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Antwerp's stronger early-season form and home advantage, combined with Sint-Truiden's inability to win so far, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Antwerp are 4th with 7 points from 3 games (2W 1D), while Sint-Truiden are 12th with 2 points from 2 games (2D).
- Antwerp have won 2 of their last 3 league matches, scoring 9 goals in 3 games.
- Sint-Truiden have drawn both league games this season, conceding 4 goals in 2 matches.
- Antwerp won the most recent league H2H 1-0 at home in February 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAntwerpEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Antwerp's solid home form and Sint-Truiden's draw tendency make the double chance of Antwerp or Draw highly probable.
- Antwerp are unbeaten in their last 3 league matches (2W 1D).
- Sint-Truiden have drawn both league games this season.
- Antwerp have lost only 1 of their last 5 home league matches (W2 D1 L1).
- H2H last 5 meetings: Antwerp 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostAntwerp or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a tendency to be level at half-time, with low first-half scoring averages.
- Antwerp have been level at half-time in 2 of their 3 league games.
- Sint-Truiden have been level at half-time in 1 of their 2 league games.
- Antwerp average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Sint-Truiden average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Antwerp often start slowly but improve in the second half, making a draw at half-time and Antwerp win a plausible scenario.
- Antwerp have drawn at half-time in 2 of 3 league games and won 2 of those matches.
- Sint-Truiden have drawn at half-time in 1 of 2 league games and drawn the match.
- Antwerp's home form: 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses.
- Sint-Truiden's away form: 1 draw, 0 wins.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/AntwerpEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games this season, and Antwerp's attacking output at home supports over 2.5 goals.
- Antwerp's league matches this season average 4.7 total goals (9 scored, 5 conceded in 3 games).
- Sint-Truiden's league matches average 4.0 total goals (4 scored, 4 conceded in 2 games).
- Antwerp have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their 3 league games.
- Sint-Truiden's away match this season ended 3-3.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and defensive vulnerabilities, making both teams scoring likely.
- Antwerp have scored in all 3 league games but also conceded in 2 of them.
- Sint-Truiden have scored in both league games and conceded in both.
- Antwerp's home league games this season: 4-4 vs Genk and 2-1 vs SK Beveren (both teams scored).
- Sint-Truiden's away league game ended 3-3.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring has been moderate for both teams, but the high-scoring tendencies in their recent meetings could lead to early goals.
- Antwerp average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded in recent form.
- Sint-Truiden average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Antwerp's last home league match had 2 first-half goals (1-1 at HT).
- Sint-Truiden's away league match had 3 first-half goals (2-1 at HT).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and their recent matches have featured multiple goals after the break.
- Antwerp's league matches have seen 7 second-half goals in 3 games (2.3 per game).
- Sint-Truiden's league matches have seen 5 second-half goals in 2 games (2.5 per game).
- Antwerp's home match vs Genk had 6 second-half goals.
- Sint-Truiden's away match vs Cercle Brugge had 3 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages suggest around 10.8 corners per game, but limited data makes this a low-confidence over bet.
- Antwerp average 6.4 corners per game in recent form.
- Sint-Truiden average 4.4 corners per game in recent form.
- Antwerp's home league matches this season: 5 corners vs Genk, 5 vs SK Beveren.
- Sint-Truiden's away league match: 3 corners vs Cercle Brugge.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages are around 3.0, but the competitive nature of the match could push the total over 3.5.
- Antwerp average 1.6 yellow cards per game in recent form.
- Sint-Truiden average 1.4 yellow cards per game in recent form.
- Antwerp's home league matches: 0 yellows vs Genk, 2 vs SK Beveren.
- Sint-Truiden's away league match: 3 yellows vs Cercle Brugge.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 42% vs our 55% estimate gives a 13pt edge, but the market is efficient and the home side's recent defensive fragility (4 goals conceded vs Genk) makes the straight win less secure than the double chance.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W1-0AntwerpvSt. TruidenFeb 28, 2026JUP

D3-3AntwerpvSt. TruidenDec 3, 2025CUP

L1-0St. TruidenvAntwerpNov 2, 2025JUP

D1-1St. TruidenvAntwerpJan 24, 2025JUP

W6-1AntwerpvSt. TruidenAug 11, 2024JUP

3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Jupiler Pro League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Antwerp Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	3	2	1	0	9-5	7	DWW
12	Sint-Truiden	2	0	2	0	4-4	2	DD

5pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Antwerp

D4-4GenkAug 22JUP

W3-0KortrijkAug 15JUP

W2-1SK BeverenAug 9JUP

L1-2Leyton OrientAug 2FRI

L0-1MillwallAug 1FRI

D1-1K. Lierse S.K.Jul 25FRI

W3-0Olympiakos PiraeusJul 24FRI

W2-0Sporting HasseltJul 19FRI

L0-1VfL BochumJul 11FRI

D1-1PSV EindhovenJul 4FRI

W2-0KVC WesterloMay 23JUP

D0-0GenkMay 19JUP

L0-3OH LeuvenMay 15JUP

L0-1CharleroiMay 10JUP

L0-5Standard LiegeMay 3JUP

Sint-Truiden

W1-0Omonia NicosiaAug 20UEF

D3-3Cercle BruggeAug 14JUP

D1-1Lommel UnitedAug 8JUP

L0-3AEK Athens FCAug 2FRI

L0-1Helmond SportAug 1FRI

D0-0Al-JaziraJul 25FRI

W1-0LiègeJul 22FRI

W2-1FC LuzernJul 18FRI

W4-0Patro EisdenJul 15FRI

W6-0Zepperen-BrustemJul 4FRI

W2-1Thes SportJul 1FRI

W3-0KV MechelenMay 24JUP

L1-3AnderlechtMay 21JUP

D1-1GentMay 16JUP

L0-2Club Brugge KVMay 9JUP

Squad & Injuries

Antwerp

31 available

Attackers9

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Sint-Truiden

25 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Antwerp or Draw

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Yes

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Antwerp -1

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Antwerp

Sint-Truiden

Squad & Injuries

Antwerp

Sint-Truiden