PremiershipFull time

Predictions graded

Kilmarnock0Dundee United4

HT 0–3Sat 29 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 16–21On targetOn target 4–8CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 18:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Kilmarnock are unbeaten in the last four league H2H meetings and Dundee United have not won away in five, making Kilmarnock or Draw (1.48) the top value bet with a 7.4-point edge.

Over 1.5 second-half goals (2.40) also offers a 13.3-point edge, while Over 0.5 first-half goals (1.25) is overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Kilmarnock are 12th in the Premiership with 0 points from 2 matches.
They lost 5-1 at home to Celtic on 2026-08-09 and 4-3 away to St Johnstone on 2026-08-02. Those results show a defence that has allowed nine goals in two league games. Dundee United will look to test that back line, but Kilmarnock's attack has still scored four times, so they can threaten going forward.
- Kilmarnock lost 5-1 at home to Celtic on 2026-08-09.
- Kilmarnock lost 4-3 away to St Johnstone on 2026-08-02.
- Kilmarnock have conceded 9 goals in 2 Premiership matches.
Dundee United are 11th in the Premiership with 1 point from 3 matches.
They lost 2-0 at home to Dundee on 2026-08-22, lost 4-0 away to Hearts on 2026-08-09, and drew 1-1 at home with Rangers on 2026-07-31. Their attack has produced just one goal in those three league games. Kilmarnock's defence has been poor, but Dundee United's own scoring struggles may limit their ability to take advantage.
- Dundee United lost 2-0 at home to Dundee on 2026-08-22.
- Dundee United lost 4-0 away to Hearts on 2026-08-09.
- Dundee United drew 1-1 at home with Rangers on 2026-07-31.
- Dundee United have scored 1 goal in 3 Premiership matches.
The last five meetings between these teams include two draws and two away wins.
Kilmarnock won 3-0 at home on 2026-05-02. Before that, Dundee United won 2-0 at home on 2025-09-27 and the other three matches were drawn or split. That recent home win gives Kilmarnock a reference point, but the overall head-to-head record is mixed and both teams have changed since last season.
- Kilmarnock beat Dundee United 3-0 at home on 2026-05-02.
- Dundee United beat Kilmarnock 2-0 at home on 2025-09-27.
- The other three meetings in the last five were draws or a Kilmarnock League Cup win.
Dundee United manager Jim Goodwin was admitted to hospital on Thursday and remained overnight as a precaution, with assistant Lee Sharp taking training and media duties.
Goodwin intends to be in the dugout, but the final touchline arrangement is still a late uncertainty. If he cannot attend, Sharp would oversee in-match decisions and delivery of the pre-match plan.
- STV Sport reported that Goodwin was admitted to hospital on Thursday and remained overnight as a precaution.
- Lee Sharp said in Friday’s press conference that Goodwin intends to be in the dugout for the Kilmarnock match.
- BBC Sport Scotland reported that Sharp had taken training and media duties while Goodwin was absent.
ReportedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 09:46 · Europe/BucharestSTV Sportnews.stv.tv · 28 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, but the H2H record suggests a tighter game than the raw averages imply.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock's strong H2H dominance and Dundee United's poor away form give the home side a clear edge, though both teams are struggling in the league.
- Kilmarnock unbeaten in last 4 league H2H vs Dundee United (2W, 2D), including 3-0 home win in May 2026.
- Kilmarnock home form last 5 home matches: 3W, 1D, 1L, scoring 12 goals.
- Dundee United away form last 5 away matches: 0W, 1D, 4L, conceding 12 goals.
- Dundee United have lost 3 of their last 4 league matches, scoring only 1 goal in those 3 losses.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKilmarnockEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern and Dundee United's away struggles strongly support Kilmarnock avoiding defeat.
- Kilmarnock unbeaten in last 4 league H2H vs Dundee United (2W, 2D).
- Dundee United have not won away in last 5 away matches (0W, 1D, 4L).
- Kilmarnock have lost only 1 of last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostKilmarnock or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock's strong first-half home record and Dundee United's tendency to trail early give the hosts a slight edge at the break.
- Kilmarnock led at half-time in 47% of matches overall.
- Dundee United trailed at half-time in 47% of matches overall.
- Kilmarnock have led at half-time in 3 of last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostKilmarnockEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock's ability to dominate at home and Dundee United's poor away form make a home win in both halves possible, though not highly probable.
- Kilmarnock have won both halves in 2 of last 5 home matches.
- Dundee United have lost both halves in 2 of last 5 away matches.
- Kilmarnock won 3-0 at home in last H2H meeting.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostKilmarnock/KilmarnockEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, with Kilmarnock's attack and Dundee United's leaky defense pointing to goals.
- Kilmarnock's last 5 home matches averaged 3.6 total goals.
- Dundee United's last 5 away matches averaged 3.2 total goals.
- Kilmarnock have scored 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 home matches.
- Dundee United have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock's consistent home scoring and Dundee United's occasional away goals, combined with Kilmarnock's defensive vulnerabilities, make both teams scoring likely.
- Kilmarnock have scored in 9 of last 10 home matches.
- Dundee United have scored in 3 of last 5 away matches.
- Kilmarnock have kept only 2 clean sheets in last 10 home matches.
- Dundee United have failed to score in 2 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock's tendency to score early at home and Dundee United's first-half defensive lapses suggest a first-half goal is likely.
- Kilmarnock have scored in first half in 6 of last 10 home matches.
- Dundee United have conceded in first half in 4 of last 5 away matches.
- Kilmarnock average 0.9 first-half goals per match overall.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to produce goals after the break, with Kilmarnock's second-half scoring and Dundee United's defensive fatigue supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Kilmarnock's last 5 home matches averaged 2.0 second-half goals.
- Dundee United's last 5 away matches averaged 1.8 second-half goals.
- Kilmarnock have scored in second half in 4 of last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and recent home/away splits suggest a total around 10 corners is plausible.
- Kilmarnock average 4.5 corners per match overall, Dundee United 4.2.
- Kilmarnock's last 5 home matches averaged 9.2 total corners.
- Dundee United's last 5 away matches averaged 10.4 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and recent matches have seen over 3.5 cards, making this a reasonable expectation.
- Kilmarnock average 2.0 yellow cards per match, Dundee United 2.3.
- Kilmarnock's last 5 home matches averaged 3.6 total cards.
- Dundee United's last 5 away matches averaged 4.2 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 40% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and the edge is below the 5-point threshold for MEDIUM confidence.

Head-to-Head

3W · 2D · 0W

W3-0KilmarnockvDundee UtdMay 2, 2026PRE

D1-1Dundee UtdvKilmarnockFeb 21, 2026PRE

D1-1KilmarnockvDundee UtdNov 29, 2025PRE

W0-2Dundee UtdvKilmarnockSep 27, 2025PRE

W2-1KilmarnockvDundee UtdAug 17, 2025LEA

Kilmarnock unbeaten in 5 meetingsKilmarnock: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Premiership 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Kilmarnock Premiership (Relegation Group)	2	0	0	2	4-9	0	LL
11	Dundee United Premiership (Relegation Group)	3	0	1	2	1-7	1	LLD

1pt gap between teamsKilmarnock in relegation zoneDundee United in relegation zone

Recent Form

Kilmarnock

W3-2Ayr UtdAug 14LEA

L1-5CelticAug 9PRE

L3-4ST JohnstoneAug 2PRE

W1-0Hamilton AcademicalJul 21LEA

W1-0Elgin CityJul 18LEA

W3-2LinfieldJul 4FRI

W4-0GlentoranJul 1FRI

W4-1LivingstonMay 17PRE

W3-1DundeeMay 12PRE

W3-0ST MirrenMay 9PRE

W3-0Dundee UtdMay 2PRE

L0-1AberdeenApr 25PRE

D2-2DundeeApr 11PRE

L0-3HibernianApr 4PRE

W2-0LivingstonMar 21PRE

Dundee United

L0-2DundeeAug 22PRE

L0-4CelticAug 15LEA

L0-4Heart Of MidlothianAug 9PRE

D1-1RangersJul 31PRE

L2-3Salford CityJul 25FRI

W4-0SpartansJul 21LEA

W3-0ArbroathJul 18LEA

L0-1MontroseJul 14LEA

W1-0Stirling AlbionJul 11LEA

D1-1ST MirrenMay 17PRE

D0-0LivingstonMay 12PRE

L0-2AberdeenMay 9PRE

L0-3KilmarnockMay 2PRE

W3-0DundeeApr 26PRE

W3-2LivingstonApr 11PRE

Squad & Injuries

Kilmarnock

25 available

Attackers4

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Dundee United

27 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Kilmarnock or Draw

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Kilmarnock -1

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Kilmarnock

Dundee United

Squad & Injuries

Kilmarnock

Dundee United