Super LigaFull time

Predictions graded

FK Novi Pazar1Macva Sabac1

HT 0–0Sat 29 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 24–10On targetOn target 6–1CornersCorners 8–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Aug 2026, 04:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Novi Pazar are likely to avoid defeat at home against a poor Macva away side, but the odds offer no value on the double chance or outright win.

The only positive edge is Under 2.5 goals at 1.80, where the model's 60% probability beats the 55.6% implied, giving a modest +4 point edge. Avoid the home win and double chance markets as they are overpriced.

Context

Macva Sabac are 10th in the Super Liga with 6 points from 6 matches.
Their away record is 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 1 goal scored and 9 conceded. They lost 2-1 at Radnik Surdulica on 15 August, 2-0 at Vojvodina on 3 August, and 5-0 at FK Crvena Zvezda on 17 July. Novi Pazar have won two of three home matches, so Macva's away struggles could continue.
- Macva Sabac have lost all 3 away matches in the Super Liga this season.
- They have conceded 9 goals and scored only 1 in those away games.
- Novi Pazar have won 2 of their 3 home matches.
Novi Pazar head coach Strahinja Pandurović said after the 1-0 defeat at Radnik that his team would change some things.
He identified Mačva's away-game reliance on fast attacks and set pieces, so Novi Pazar's organisation after turnovers and at dead balls becomes a concrete match focus. The adjustment is confirmed but its exact form remains unspecified.
- At the 28 August press conference, Pandurović said Novi Pazar would change some things after the 1-0 defeat at Radnik.
- Pandurović said Mačva use a different away approach, waiting for fast attacks and set pieces.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:35 · Europe/BucharestRTV Novi Pazar: Pandurović pred Mačvurtvnp.rs · 28 Aug 2026
Novi Pazar are 9th in the Super Liga with 7 points from 6 matches.
Their away record shows 0 goals in 3 matches, including a 1-0 loss at Radnik Surdulica on 23 August and a 2-0 loss at FK Crvena Zvezda on 8 August. At home, they beat Vojvodina 2-0 on 17 August and Radnicki 1923 1-0 on 18 July, showing a clear home advantage in attack.
- Novi Pazar have scored 0 goals in 3 away matches this season.
- They have scored 4 goals in 3 home matches.
- Their home wins include a 2-0 victory over Vojvodina on 17 August.
Novi Pazar are 9th with 7 points, and Macva Sabac are 10th with 6 points.
Both teams have lost three of their last five league matches. Novi Pazar's form is LWLLD, while Macva's is WLWLL. A win for either side would create a small gap above the relegation zone, adding pressure to this fixture.
- Novi Pazar are 9th with 7 points; Macva Sabac are 10th with 6 points.
- Novi Pazar's last five league results: LWLLD.
- Macva Sabac's last five league results: WLWLL.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

FK Novi Pazar

1.70fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Novi Pazar's home record is not dominant enough to justify 58.8% implied probability; Macva's away struggles are real but the price overrates the hosts.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FK Novi Pazar or Draw

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 84.7%

−9.7ppshort

Even with Macva's poor away record, 84.7% implied probability for home or draw is too high given Novi Pazar's own home inconsistency.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.20fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 45.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams rarely lead at half-time, and the first-half stats support a level scoreline, but the odds are fair with no edge.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average only 0.5 first-half goals scored, and the combined first-half goal involvement is low, supporting a quiet opening period.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Novi Pazar's solid home form and Macva's dreadful away record give the hosts a clear edge, though Macva's recent friendly win adds slight uncertainty.
- Novi Pazar home record: 2W-0D-1L, 4 goals scored, 4 conceded in 3 home matches
- Macva away record: 0W-0D-3L, 1 goal scored, 9 conceded in 3 away matches
- Novi Pazar last 5 home matches: W-L-W-D-D (2W-1L-2D)
- Macva last 5 away matches: L-L-L-D-L (0W-1D-4L)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFK Novi PazarEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Macva have lost all three away league games and Novi Pazar have been competitive at home, making a home win or draw highly likely.
- Novi Pazar home record: 2W-0D-1L
- Macva away record: 0W-0D-3L
- Macva away goals: 1 scored, 9 conceded in 3 matches
- Novi Pazar home goals: 4 scored, 4 conceded in 3 matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFK Novi Pazar or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely lead at the break, and with similar first-half scoring, a level scoreline at half time is the most likely outcome.
- Novi Pazar leading at half time in 20% of matches
- Macva leading at half time in 20% of matches
- Novi Pazar trailing at half time in 53% of matches
- Macva trailing at half time in 40% of matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Novi Pazar win is plausible given Macva's away fragility, but the specific sequence is not strongly supported.
- Novi Pazar home matches: 2 wins, 1 loss, 0 draws at half time
- Macva away matches: 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses at half time
- Novi Pazar second half performance: +0.2 goal difference per match
- Macva second half performance: -0.2 goal difference per match
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / FK Novi PazarEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring averages overall, and despite Macva's poor away defense, Novi Pazar's modest attack suggests a low-scoring contest.
- Novi Pazar average total goals per match: 2.5 (0.9 for, 1.6 against)
- Macva average total goals per match: 2.2 (0.9 for, 1.3 against)
- Novi Pazar home matches: 8 total goals in 3 games (2.67 per game)
- Macva away matches: 10 total goals in 3 games (3.33 per game)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Macva's away scoring struggles and Novi Pazar's inconsistent attack make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Novi Pazar failed to score in 3 of last 5 matches
- Macva failed to score in 2 of last 5 matches
- Macva away: scored in only 1 of 3 away matches
- Novi Pazar home: scored in all 3 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average only 0.5 first-half goals, and their combined first-half goal involvement is low, supporting a quiet opening period.
- Novi Pazar first half goals average: 0.5 per match
- Macva first half goals average: 0.5 per match
- Novi Pazar first half goals conceded average: 1.0 per match
- Macva first half goals conceded average: 0.7 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to see more goals as teams tire, but the low overall scoring rates make this a borderline call.
- Novi Pazar second half goals: 0.4 per match (0.9 total - 0.5 first half)
- Macva second half goals: 0.4 per match (0.9 total - 0.5 first half)
- Novi Pazar second half goals conceded: 0.6 per match (1.6 total - 1.0 first half)
- Macva second half goals conceded: 0.6 per match (1.3 total - 0.7 first half)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low corner counts, and their combined average of 6.6 corners per match suggests a low total corner count.
- Novi Pazar average corners per match: 4.1
- Macva average corners per match: 2.5
- Novi Pazar opponent corners average: 5.1
- Macva opponent corners average: 5.3
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams commit a high number of fouls and receive multiple cards, making a card-heavy match likely.
- Novi Pazar average yellow cards per match: 2.3
- Macva average yellow cards per match: 3.2
- Novi Pazar average fouls per match: 14.3
- Macva average fouls per match: 16.0
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 58.8% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and offers negative value.

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 2W

L2-1MacvavNovi PazarJul 1, 2026FRI

L4-0Novi PazarvMacvaFeb 27, 2021SUP

D1-1MacvavNovi PazarAug 23, 2020SUP

Macva Sabac unbeaten in 3 meetings3 goals/game avg

League Table

Super Liga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	FK Novi Pazar Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Relegation Group)	6	2	1	3	4-7	7	LWLLD
10	Macva Sabac Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Relegation Group)	6	2	0	4	4-12	6	WLWLL

1pt gap between teamsFK Novi Pazar in relegation zoneMacva Sabac in relegation zone

Recent Form

FK Novi Pazar

L0-1Radnik SurdulicaAug 23SUP

W2-0VojvodinaAug 17SUP

L0-2FK Crvena ZvezdaAug 8SUP

L1-4OFK BeogradAug 1SUP

D0-0Mladost LucaniJul 26SUP

W1-0Radnicki 1923Jul 18SUP

L0-1Radnik SurdulicaJul 9FRI

D1-1AkhmatJul 4FRI

L1-2MacvaJul 1FRI

L1-3Mladost LucaniJun 28FRI

L0-3VojvodinaMay 23SUP

D2-2Železničar PančevoMay 17SUP

W2-1FK Crvena ZvezdaMay 9SUP

L1-2FK PartizanMay 2SUP

D2-2CukarickiApr 26SUP

Macva Sabac

W1-0Radnicki NISAug 22SUP

L1-2Radnik SurdulicaAug 15SUP

W1-0IMT Novi BeogradAug 9SUP

L0-2VojvodinaAug 3SUP

L1-3FK PartizanJul 26SUP

L0-5FK Crvena ZvezdaJul 17SUP

L1-2NaftagasJul 14FRI

D0-0LoznicaJul 11FRI

L1-2Mladost LucaniJul 5FRI

W2-1Novi PazarJul 1FRI

D0-0PetrovacJun 27FRI

D1-1ZemunJun 20FRI

L0-2LoznicaMay 9PRV

W1-0FK VozdovacMay 3PRV

W3-0OFK VršacApr 27PRV

Squad & Injuries

FK Novi Pazar

30 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Macva Sabac

25 available

Attackers4

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

FK Novi Pazar

FK Novi Pazar or Draw

Draw

Under 1.5

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

FK Novi Pazar

FK Novi Pazar or Draw

@ 2.75

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

FK Novi Pazar

Macva Sabac

Squad & Injuries

FK Novi Pazar

Macva Sabac