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Predictions graded

Atletico Rafaela2Tristan Suarez1

HT 0–1Sat 29 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–614%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 00:07 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is Under 0.5 first-half goals at 1.95 (model edge +8.7pts), as both teams start slowly and recent H2H meetings were goalless at the break.

Avoid the heavily juiced Under 2.5 and BTTS No markets, which offer no value despite the low-scoring profile. Tristan Suarez at 3.10 is a speculative away win play, but the match is more likely to be tight and low-scoring.

Context

Tristan Suarez is first in Group 2 with 48 points from 25 matches and has the best away record in the group with 6 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses.
The team has won five consecutive matches, including a 2-0 home win over Agropecuario on August 22 and a 3-1 home win over Almirante Brown on August 16. This run shows they are scoring consistently and defending well. However, all five wins came against teams in the lower half of the table, so this match against a playoff contender will test whether the form carries over.
- Won 2-0 at home vs Agropecuario on 2026-08-22.
- Won 3-1 at home vs Almirante Brown on 2026-08-16.
- Won 2-0 away vs Gimnasia Jujuy on 2026-08-10.
Atlético Rafaela sit eighth in Zone B, the final provisional place for the Torneo Reducido, while Tristán Suárez lead the group on 48 points with a game in hand over several rivals.
The result directly affects Rafaela's hold on a playoff berth and Tristán Suárez's lead in the promotion race. A home win would strengthen Rafaela's position, while an away win would extend the leaders' advantage.
- Radio Rafaela reported that Atlético Rafaela are eighth in Zone B, the final provisional place for the Torneo Reducido.
- The same report placed Tristán Suárez first in Zone B on 48 points, three clear of Gimnasia de Jujuy and with a game in hand over several rivals.
- Palo y Gol also described Tristán Suárez as the current Zone B leaders.
ReportedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:34 · Europe/BucharestRadio Rafaela pre-match reportradiorafaela.com.ar · 28 Aug 2026Palo y Gol pre-match reportpaloygol.com.ar · 28 Aug 2026
Atletico Rafaela is eighth in Group 2 with 36 points and is currently in a promotion playoff spot.
At home, they have 8 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, scoring 13 goals and conceding 6. Away, they have only 1 win, 6 draws, and 6 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 13. This match is at home, where they have been much more reliable. Their recent home form includes a 1-0 win over Chacarita Juniors on August 8 and a 1-0 win over Nueva Chicago on July 25.
- Home record: 8 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in 13 matches.
- Away record: 1 win, 6 draws, 6 losses in 13 matches.
- Recent home wins: 1-0 vs Chacarita Juniors on 2026-08-08 and 1-0 vs Nueva Chicago on 2026-07-25.
Tristan Suarez leads Group 2 and has the best away record among all teams in the group.
They have 6 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses away, scoring 12 goals and conceding only 6. This away strength could neutralize Atletico Rafaela's home advantage. However, their away wins have come against teams like Gimnasia Jujuy and Club Atlético Güemes, who are lower in the table, so this match against a stronger home side will be a tougher test.
- Away record: 6 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses in 12 matches.
- Away goals: 12 scored, 6 conceded.
- Recent away win: 2-0 at Gimnasia Jujuy on 2026-08-10.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Atletico Rafaela or Draw

1.30fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Atletico Rafaela's solid home record and Tristan Suarez's occasional away draws make the home side avoiding defeat a likely outcome, but the odds offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tristan Suarez's excellent recent form and strong away record give them the edge, while Atletico Rafaela's home form has been inconsistent.
- Tristan Suarez are on a 5-match winning streak in the league, scoring 11 goals and conceding 2.
- Atletico Rafaela have only 1 win in their last 5 home matches (1W, 3D, 1L).
- Tristan Suarez have the best away record in the group: 6W, 4D, 2L, with 12 goals scored and 6 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTristan SuarezEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atletico Rafaela's solid home record and Tristan Suarez's occasional away draws make the home side avoiding defeat a likely outcome.
- Atletico Rafaela have lost only 2 of 13 home matches this season (8W, 3D, 2L).
- Tristan Suarez have drawn 4 of 12 away matches.
- Atletico Rafaela are unbeaten in their last 3 home matches (1W, 2D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAtletico Rafaela or DrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently go into the break level, and recent H2H matches support a drawn first half.
- Atletico Rafaela have drawn at half-time in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Tristan Suarez have drawn at half-time in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- The last two H2H meetings were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is plausible given both teams' high draw rates and recent goalless H2H results.
- Atletico Rafaela have drawn 9 of 26 matches this season.
- Tristan Suarez have drawn 9 of 25 matches this season.
- The last two H2H meetings ended 0-0.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring averages and recent H2H matches have been goalless, suggesting a low-scoring game.
- Atletico Rafaela average 0.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match in their last 15.
- Tristan Suarez average 1.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match in their last 15.
- The last two H2H meetings ended 0-0.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown defensive solidity and struggles to score, making it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Atletico Rafaela have failed to score in 6 of their last 15 matches.
- Tristan Suarez have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
- The last two H2H meetings ended 0-0.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and recent H2H matches goalless at the break.
- Atletico Rafaela average 0.1 first-half goals scored and 0.2 conceded in their last 15.
- Tristan Suarez average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded in their last 15.
- In the last two H2H meetings, the score at half-time was 0-0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is also low for both teams, and recent H2H matches have been goalless, supporting a low second-half total.
- Atletico Rafaela average 0.4 second-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in their last 15.
- Tristan Suarez average 0.6 second-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded in their last 15.
- The last two H2H meetings ended 0-0.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without corner data, we rely on the low-scoring nature of both teams to infer a lower corner count, but confidence is low.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams have low scoring and possession averages, suggesting fewer attacking opportunities.
- No corner stats provided in the data.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 77% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Atletico Rafaela has been highly reliable when projected to Under 2.5 goals

Atletico Rafaela has fulfilled 6 of 7 Under 2.5 goals predictions, a strong 86% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 68.9%, with an expected 4.8 fulfilled predictions, indicating the model has been well-calibrated. The current prediction of 60% sits within the historical range of 60-75%, and away matches have been particularly reliable with 5 of 5 fulfilled.

Recent evidence for Atletico Rafaela7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Primera Nacional

San Martin de San Juan1-1

Atletico Rafaela

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·70%→2 total goals

Matched

1 Aug 2026

Primera Nacional

San Martin de San Juan1-1

Atletico Rafaela

Under 2.5 goals

70%probability

2 total goals

Matched

25 Jul·Primera Nacional

Atletico Rafaela1-0

CA Nueva Chicago

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·75%→1 total goal

Matched

25 Jul 2026

Primera Nacional

Atletico Rafaela1-0

CA Nueva Chicago

Under 2.5 goals

75%probability

1 total goal

Matched

18 Jul·Primera Nacional

CA Temperley2-0

Atletico Rafaela

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·65%→2 total goals

Matched

18 Jul 2026

Primera Nacional

CA Temperley2-0

Atletico Rafaela

Under 2.5 goals

65%probability

2 total goals

Matched

11 Jul·Primera Nacional

Atletico Rafaela1-3

Deportivo Maipu

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·70%→4 total goals

Missed

11 Jul 2026

Primera Nacional

Atletico Rafaela1-3

Deportivo Maipu

Under 2.5 goals

70%probability

4 total goals

Missed

4 Jul·Primera Nacional

Club Almagro1-0

Atletico Rafaela

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·72%→1 total goal

Matched

4 Jul 2026

Primera Nacional

Club Almagro1-0

Atletico Rafaela

Under 2.5 goals

72%probability

1 total goal

Matched

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D0-0Tristan SuarezvAtletico DE RafaelaApr 13, 2026PRI

D0-0Tristan SuarezvAtletico DE RafaelaJun 17, 2023PRI

L3-0Atletico DE RafaelavTristan SuarezFeb 11, 2023PRI

L4-0Tristan SuarezvAtletico DE RafaelaJun 26, 2022PRI

W1-2Tristan SuarezvAtletico DE RafaelaSep 25, 2021PRI

Atletico Rafaela: 2 clean sheetsTristan Suarez: 4 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera Nacional 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Atletico Rafaela Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)	26	9	9	8	18-19	36	DDWDW
1	Tristan Suarez Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)	25	13	9	3	28-13	48	WWWWW