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Predictions graded

CSKA 1948 Sofia2Lokomotiv Plovdiv0

HT 1–0Fri 28 Aug 2026, 18:15 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges5–183%

Yellow CardsYellow Cards 1–3Red CardsRed Cards 0–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 18:06 · Europe/Bucharest

CSKA 1948 Sofia are strong favorites at home against a Lokomotiv Plovdiv side that has lost all three away games without scoring.

The best value is the home win at 1.62 (edge +6pts) and over 2.5 goals at 1.88 (edge +8.8pts), while the first-half over 0.5 goals market is a trap with a negative edge.

Context

Home record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 8 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- Last 5 league matches: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses.
- Recent home wins: 4-1 vs Cherno More, 2-1 vs Arda, 2-1 vs Botev Vratsa.
Away record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, 0 goals scored, 4 conceded.
- Away losses: 0-2 at Levski, 0-1 at Spartak Varna, 0-1 at Ludogorets.
- Overall away first-half goals: 0 in 3 matches.
Last 4 league H2H: CSKA 1948 wins by 5-0, 4-0, 1-0, 2-1.
- Most recent meeting: 5-0 away win on 5 March 2026.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv have not beaten CSKA 1948 in the last 5 league meetings.
Away half-time results: 0-1 at Levski, 0-1 at Spartak Varna, 0-1 at Ludogorets.
- CSKA 1948 home first-half goals: 3 in 3 matches.
- CSKA 1948 have led at half-time in only 1 of 3 home games, but Lokomotiv's early weakness could change that.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's perfect home record and Lokomotiv Plovdiv's winless away form with no goals scored strongly favor the home side, driven by structural home/away edge and motivation.
- CSKA 1948 home record this season: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 8 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv away record this season: 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, 0 goals scored, 4 conceded.
- CSKA 1948 last 5 league matches: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv last 5 league matches: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCSKA 1948 SofiaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given CSKA 1948's strong home form and Lokomotiv Plovdiv's poor away results, the home side avoiding defeat is highly likely, supported by structural home/away edge and motivation.
- CSKA 1948 home record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv away record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses.
- CSKA 1948 overall form: 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in last 6 league matches.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv overall form: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses in last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCSKA 1948 Sofia or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's home advantage and Lokomotiv Plovdiv's poor away first-half record suggest the home side may lead at the break, driven by structural home/away edge and motivation.
- CSKA 1948 home matches: led at half-time in 1 of 3 games, drew in 2.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv away matches: trailed at half-time in 2 of 3 games, drew in 1.
- CSKA 1948 overall leading at half-time: 21% of matches.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv overall trailing at half-time: 40% of matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonCSKA 1948 SofiaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's ability to win at home and Lokomotiv Plovdiv's tendency to trail early support a home win at both half-time and full-time, influenced by structural home/away edge and motivation.
- CSKA 1948 home matches: led at half-time in 1 of 3 games, won all 3.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv away matches: trailed at half-time in 2 of 3 games, lost all 3.
- CSKA 1948 overall: won 4 of 6 league matches, with 1 half-time lead.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv overall: lost 4 of 5 league matches, with 2 half-time deficits.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonCSKA 1948 Sofia / CSKA 1948 SofiaEstimated chance50%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's high-scoring home games and Lokomotiv Plovdiv's defensive struggles on the road suggest a match with at least three goals, influenced by tactical matchup edge and motivation.
- CSKA 1948 home matches average 3.67 total goals (8 scored, 3 conceded in 3 games).
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv away matches average 1.33 total goals (0 scored, 4 conceded in 3 games).
- CSKA 1948 overall average goals per match: 2.17 (13 scored, 7 conceded in 6 games).
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv overall average goals per match: 2.0 (3 scored, 7 conceded in 5 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lokomotiv Plovdiv's away scoring drought and CSKA 1948's solid home defense make it likely that at least one team fails to score, driven by structural home/away edge and injuries/suspensions impact (none reported).
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv has failed to score in all 3 away league matches this season.
- CSKA 1948 has kept 1 clean sheet in 3 home league matches.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv has scored only 3 goals in 5 league matches overall.
- CSKA 1948 has conceded in 2 of 3 home league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lokomotiv Plovdiv's inability to score away from home and CSKA 1948's decent home defense support a home clean sheet, influenced by structural home/away edge and motivation.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv has scored 0 goals in 3 away league matches.
- CSKA 1948 has kept 1 clean sheet in 3 home league matches.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv averages 0.6 goals per match overall this season.
- CSKA 1948 conceded 3 goals in 3 home matches (1.0 per game).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLokomotiv Plovdiv not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see first-half goals, and CSKA 1948's attacking intent at home should produce at least one goal before the break, supported by tactical matchup edge and motivation.
- CSKA 1948 home matches: first half goals in 2 of 3 games (total 3 first-half goals).
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv away matches: first half goals in 2 of 3 games (total 2 first-half goals).
- CSKA 1948 overall first half goals: 0.6 per match, first half goals conceded: 0.5 per match.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv overall first half goals: 0.4 per match, first half goals conceded: 0.7 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's strong second-half scoring at home and Lokomotiv Plovdiv's tendency to concede late make over 1.5 second-half goals plausible, influenced by tactical matchup edge and motivation.
- CSKA 1948 home matches: second half goals in all 3 games (total 5 second-half goals).
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv away matches: second half goals in 2 of 3 games (total 2 second-half goals).
- CSKA 1948 overall second half goals: 1.3 per match, second half goals conceded: 0.5 per match.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv overall second half goals: 0.8 per match, second half goals conceded: 0.4 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's higher corner count and attacking style may lead to a moderate total, but limited corner data for both teams makes this a low-confidence call, based on tactical matchup edge.
- CSKA 1948 average corners per match: 6.5 (from available data).
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv average corners per match: 1.0 (from limited data).
- CSKA 1948 home matches: corner data available for only 1 match (7 corners).
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv away matches: corner data available for only 1 match (1 corner).
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 2 yellow cards per match, and Lokomotiv Plovdiv's higher foul count suggests a card-heavy game, but limited recent card data makes this a low-confidence prediction, influenced by tactical matchup edge.
- CSKA 1948 average yellow cards per match: 2.3.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv average yellow cards per match: 3.0.
- CSKA 1948 average fouls per match: 11.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv average fouls per match: 15.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 47% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; the first-half market is efficient and the home side's slow starts make this a trap.

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

W0-5Lokomotiv PlovdivvCSKA 1948Mar 5, 2026FIR

L4-0CSKA 1948vLokomotiv PlovdivSep 20, 2025FIR

W0-1Lokomotiv PlovdivvCSKA 1948May 25, 2025FIR

L2-1CSKA 1948vLokomotiv PlovdivMar 8, 2025FIR

W0-2Lokomotiv PlovdivvCSKA 1948Sep 19, 2024FIR

CSKA 1948 Sofia: 3 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia Play-offs	6	4	1	1	13-7	13	LWWWW
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Relegation Playoffs	5	1	0	4	3-7	3	LLLWL

10pt gap between teamsLokomotiv Plovdiv in relegation zone

Recent Form

CSKA 1948 Sofia

L0-1Septemvri SofiaAug 23FIR

W4-1Cherno More VarnaAug 14FIR

W3-1Lokomotiv SofiaAug 8FIR

D1-1PanathinaikosAug 5UEF

W2-1Arda KardzhaliJul 31FIR

W2-1Botev VratsaJul 25FIR

D0-0Spartak TrnavaJul 22UEF

D2-2Spartak VarnaJul 17FIR

W1-0Železničar PančevoJul 7FRI

L0-1NK VarazdinJul 4FRI

D3-3MariborJul 1FRI

W3-0FK PartizanJun 29FRI

W3-2Odra OpoleJun 28FRI

W4-1DritaJun 21FRI

D0-0Levski SofiaMay 25FIR

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

L1-2Dunav RuseAug 16FIR

L0-2Levski SofiaAug 7FIR

L0-1Spartak VarnaAug 3FIR

W2-1Septemvri SofiaJul 26FIR

L0-1LudogoretsJul 18FIR

W2-0Rilski SportistJul 8FRI

W2-0Arda KardzhaliJul 4FRI

W2-1Botev PlovdivMay 25FIR

L0-4Arda KardzhaliMay 16FIR

L0-2Cherno More VarnaMay 12FIR

W2-0Arda KardzhaliMay 8FIR

W2-0Botev PlovdivMay 3FIR

D1-1Arda KardzhaliApr 30CUP

L0-1Cherno More VarnaApr 26FIR

W4-0Arda KardzhaliApr 22CUP

Squad & Injuries

CSKA 1948 Sofia

31 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

CSKA 1948 Sofia

CSKA 1948 Sofia or Draw

CSKA 1948 Sofia at half-time / CSKA 1948 Sofia at full-time

Over 2.5

No

Over 0.5

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

CSKA 1948 Sofia

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Squad & Injuries

CSKA 1948 Sofia

Lokomotiv Plovdiv