Keflavik or Draw
Market 69.9% · BetBugs 72%
Keflavik have lost only 2 of 9 home games this season while IBV have won just 1 of 9 away, making a home win or draw highly likely.
ÚrvalsdeildFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Keflavik's strong home form and IBV's poor away record make Keflavik or Draw the only clear value bet at 1.43 (edge +2.1pts).
Avoid Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes, and Over 0.5 first-half goals, as the market has overpriced them relative to our model. The recent 6-1 IBV win adds risk, but the home/away splits dominate the analysis.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 1
Market 69.9% · BetBugs 72%
Keflavik have lost only 2 of 9 home games this season while IBV have won just 1 of 9 away, making a home win or draw highly likely.
Other edges · 3
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 58% · Market 69.4%
Both teams average 1.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, but the odds already price in a high-scoring game, leaving no edge.
BetBugs 55% · Market 67.6%
Both teams score consistently, but the market has already priced in a high likelihood of both scoring.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 48.8% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and the recent 6-1 loss to IBV adds uncertainty.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | KeflavikPlay-offs | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 30-34 | 25 |
| 9 | IBV VestmannaeyjarRelegation Playoffs | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 30-41 | 17 |

