Liga NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

Deportivo Mixco4Guastatoya2

HT 3–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 04:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Guastatoya's away form and Mixco's inconsistent home record make the away win at 4.00 a strong value bet (+15% edge).

First-half under 0.5 goals at 2.40 is also attractive, as both teams start slowly and H2H first halves have been tight. Avoid the short-priced double chance and under 2.5 goals, which offer no value.

Context

Guastatoya away record in last 7 Liga Nacional matches: 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses.
- Mixco home record in last 7 Liga Nacional matches: 4 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses.
- Guastatoya's away losses came against Antigua GFC and Municipal, both stronger sides.
Last 5 H2H: home team won all 5, away team scored 0 goals.
- Mixco won both home meetings vs Guastatoya in that span (1-0, 2-0).
- Guastatoya won all three home meetings vs Mixco in that span.
Mixco first-half goals average: 0.4; first-half goals conceded average: 0.8.
- Guastatoya first-half goals average: 0.5; first-half goals conceded average: 0.2.
- 3 of last 5 H2H matches were 0-0 at halftime.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Guastatoya's solid away record and Mixco's inconsistent home form give the visitors a slight edge, though H2H home dominance tempers confidence.
- Guastatoya away form: 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in last 7 away matches (Liga Nacional).
- Deportivo Mixco home form: 4 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in last 7 home matches (Liga Nacional).
- H2H last 5: home team won all 5, but Guastatoya won 3 of those as home team; away team never scored.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGuastatoyaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mixco's home advantage and H2H home wins support a double chance for the hosts, though Guastatoya's away form prevents higher confidence.
- Mixco home record: 4W-1D-2L in last 7 home league matches.
- Guastatoya away record: 3W-2D-2L in last 7 away league matches.
- H2H: Mixco won both home meetings vs Guastatoya in last 5 (1-0, 2-0).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDeportivo Mixco or DrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates at halftime, and H2H first halves have been evenly matched.
- Mixco half-time results: 13% leading, 47% trailing, 40% drawing.
- Guastatoya half-time results: 27% leading, 20% trailing, 53% drawing.
- H2H last 5: 3 matches were level at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low draw rates for both teams and no H2H draws make this outcome unlikely, but possible given first-half draw tendencies.
- Mixco full-time draws: 1 in last 15.
- Guastatoya full-time draws: 3 in last 15.
- H2H last 5: no draws.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown dominance across both halves, making it highly unlikely for either to win both halves.
- Mixco won both halves in only 1 of last 15 matches.
- Guastatoya won both halves in 2 of last 15 matches.
- H2H last 5: no team won both halves.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Guastatoya's better first-half record and Mixco's tendency to trail at halftime support a double chance for the visitors.
- Guastatoya first half leading rate: 27%, drawing rate: 53%.
- Mixco first half trailing rate: 47%.
- H2H last 5: Guastatoya led at halftime in 1 match, drew in 3, lost in 1.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or GuastatoyaEstimated chance60%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low-scoring H2H trend and Guastatoya's strong defense (0.7 goals conceded average) point to under 2.5 goals.
- Mixco average total goals per match: 3.0 (1.3 for, 1.7 against).
- Guastatoya average total goals per match: 2.0 (1.3 for, 0.7 against).
- H2H last 5: all matches had 2 or fewer goals (1-0, 2-0, 1-0, 2-0, 1-0).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern of away team not scoring and Guastatoya's defensive solidity make both teams scoring unlikely.
- H2H last 5: away team failed to score in all 5 meetings.
- Guastatoya conceded only 0.7 goals per match on average.
- Mixco failed to score in 4 of last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Guastatoya's defensive record and Mixco's occasional scoring droughts give a moderate chance of an away clean sheet.
- Guastatoya kept 5 clean sheets in last 15 matches.
- Mixco failed to score in 4 of last 15 matches.
- H2H: Guastatoya kept clean sheet in 2 of 3 away meetings vs Mixco.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDeportivo Mixco not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, and H2H first halves have been tight, supporting under 0.5 first-half goals.
- Mixco first half goals average: 0.4; first half goals conceded average: 0.8.
- Guastatoya first half goals average: 0.5; first half goals conceded average: 0.2.
- H2H last 5: 3 matches were 0-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score more in second halves, and H2H matches have seen goals after halftime, making over 0.5 second-half goals likely.
- Mixco second half goals average: 0.9 (1.3 total - 0.4 first half).
- Guastatoya second half goals average: 0.8 (1.3 total - 0.5 first half).
- H2H last 5: all goals came in second half in 4 of 5 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates for both teams and H2H pattern indicate both teams scoring in first half is unlikely.
- Mixco first half goals average: 0.4; first half goals conceded average: 0.8.
- Guastatoya first half goals average: 0.5; first half goals conceded average: 0.2.
- H2H last 5: no match had both teams score in first half.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Due to lack of corner data, this is a speculative prediction based on typical low corner counts in defensive matches.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams average 0 corners per match in provided data (likely missing).
- No H2H corner data available.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Without card data, this is a cautious prediction assuming a relatively clean match given no reported disciplinary issues.
- Card data unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams average 0 yellow cards per match in provided data (likely missing).
- No H2H card data available.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 72% leaves no cushion vs our 60% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 5W

L1-0MixcovGuastatoyaMar 7, 2026LIG

L2-0GuastatoyavMixcoJan 23, 2026LIG

L1-0GuastatoyavMixcoNov 6, 2025LIG

L2-0MixcovGuastatoyaAug 30, 2025LIG

L1-0GuastatoyavMixcoApr 27, 2025LIG

Guastatoya unbeaten in 5 meetingsGuastatoya: 5 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Deportivo Mixco

W4-1UMECITAug 20CON

L2-3Cobán ImperialAug 15LIG

L0-3Deportivo SaprissaAug 12CON

W1-0MarquenseAug 8LIG

W2-0SuchitepéquezAug 1LIG

L0-2CD OlimpiaJul 29CON

L0-2MunicipalJul 25LIG

L0-5MunicipalMay 10LIG

L0-2MunicipalMay 6LIG

W2-0Cobán ImperialMay 2LIG

L0-2Cobán ImperialApr 29LIG

L0-3MunicipalApr 26LIG

W4-0AuroraApr 19LIG

D2-2MictlánApr 16LIG

W3-1XelajúApr 11LIG

Guastatoya

W1-0MunicipalAug 15LIG

L0-2Antigua GFCAug 9LIG

W4-0MalacatecoAug 2LIG

W1-0AuroraJul 25LIG

L0-2MunicipalMay 3LIG

L0-1MunicipalMay 1LIG

W4-0MarquenseApr 26LIG

L0-1ComunicacionesApr 21LIG

W3-0Antigua GFCApr 16LIG

D1-1Cobán ImperialApr 12LIG

W3-1AchuapaApr 7LIG

L0-1MalacatecoApr 3LIG

D1-1XelajúMar 29LIG

D1-1MunicipalMar 22LIG

W1-0AuroraMar 19LIG

Squad & Injuries

Deportivo Mixco

32 available

Attackers8

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Guastatoya

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders16

Defenders3

Goalkeeper2

Deportivo Mixco4Guastatoya2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Guastatoya

Draw

No

Under 0.5

Deportivo Mixco or Draw

No

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 6 landed

Goals2 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

@ 1.38

@ 1.05

Under 2.5

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Deportivo Mixco

Guastatoya

Squad & Injuries

Deportivo Mixco

Guastatoya