AV Alta FC
Market 48.8% · BetBugs 55%
AV Alta FC are W5-D6-L1 at home while FC Naples are W1-D1-L8 away, giving the home side a clear structural edge.
USL League OneFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
AV Alta FC's strong home form and FC Naples' dreadful away record make the home side the likely winner, but the best value lies in the double chance (Home or Draw) at 1.33, with a +5-point edge.
The away clean sheet 'No' at 1.22 is also a solid high-probability play, while first-half and handicap markets should be avoided due to poor pricing.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 4
AV Alta FCMarket 48.8% · BetBugs 55%
AV Alta FC are W5-D6-L1 at home while FC Naples are W1-D1-L8 away, giving the home side a clear structural edge.
Market 75.2% · BetBugs 80%
AV Alta FC have lost only once at home all season, while FC Naples have lost 8 of 10 away, making home-or-draw a high-probability outcome.
Market 57.8% · BetBugs 60%
Combined home/away goal averages and H2H history support multiple goals, with AV Alta FC's home matches averaging 2.5 total goals and FC Naples' away matches averaging 2.9.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 82% leaves no cushion vs our 70% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.
AV Alta FC has fulfilled 5 of 11 Over 2.5 goals predictions, a 45% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 58.6%, so expected fulfilments were 6.5, indicating underperformance. Matched predictions had a lower average probability (56%) than missed ones (60.8%), suggesting higher-confidence projections were less accurate.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | AV Alta FCPromotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals) | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 32-27 | 32 |
| 14 | FC Naples | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 23-34 | 20 |

