Tristan Suarez2Agropecuario Argentino0

HT 0–0Sat 22 Aug 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 23:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Tristán Suárez to win at 1.88 — our model gives them a 60% chance versus the implied 53%, a clear edge.

For a bigger payout, consider Suárez/Suárez in the HT/FT market at 3.00, where our 45% estimate dwarfs the 33% implied probability. Avoid goals and handicap markets, as they are efficiently priced with no value.

Context

Tristán Suárez have won their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 2.
- They have kept clean sheets in 3 of those 5 wins.
- Their last three wins include a 3-1 home victory over Almirante Brown and a 2-0 away win at Gimnasia Jujuy.
Agropecuario have 1 win, 3 draws, and 8 losses in 12 away matches.
- They have scored only 8 goals in those 12 away games.
- They have failed to score in 5 of their last 10 matches overall.
Tristán Suárez won the last 4 H2Hs, scoring 8 and conceding 2.
- They won both recent away matches at Agropecuario 2-0.
- The only Agropecuario win in the last five meetings was in 2022.
Agropecuario have trailed at half-time in 40% of matches.
- Tristán Suárez have led at half-time in only 20% of matches.
- In the last 5 H2Hs, Tristán Suárez led at half-time in 2 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tristan Suarez's dominant form, superior league position, and strong H2H record give them a clear edge, while Agropecuario's poor away form further supports a home win.
- Tristan Suarez have won their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 2.
- Tristan Suarez are 1st in Group 2 with 45 points; Agropecuario are 15th with 29 points.
- Tristan Suarez have won the last 4 H2Hs, including two 2-0 away wins.
- Agropecuario have only 1 away win in 12 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTristan SuarezEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tristan Suarez's strong home record and Agropecuario's poor away form make a home defeat unlikely, so double chance home/draw is very safe.
- Tristan Suarez have lost only 1 home match in 12 this season.
- Tristan Suarez have won 6 and drawn 5 at home.
- Agropecuario have won only 1 of 12 away matches.
- Tristan Suarez have won 4 of the last 5 H2Hs.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTristan Suarez or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tristan Suarez's superior first-half scoring and Agropecuario's poor first-half record give them an edge, but the probability remains low due to the overall low-scoring nature.
- Tristan Suarez have led at halftime in 20% of matches; Agropecuario in only 7%.
- Tristan Suarez have scored 0.6 first-half goals per match; Agropecuario 0.1.
- In the last 5 H2Hs, Tristan Suarez led at halftime in 2 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostTristan SuarezEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tristan Suarez's strong form and tendency to lead at halftime, combined with Agropecuario's poor first-half record, support a home win at both intervals.
- Tristan Suarez have won 5 consecutive matches, with 3 of those wins including a halftime lead.
- Agropecuario have trailed at halftime in 40% of matches.
- Tristan Suarez have won 4 of the last 5 H2Hs.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostTristan Suarez/Tristan SuarezEstimated chance45%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring averages and strong defensive records, especially Tristan Suarez at home, suggesting a low-scoring match.
- Tristan Suarez average 1.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match.
- Agropecuario average 0.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.
- Tristan Suarez have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Agropecuario have scored only 8 goals in 12 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tristan Suarez's solid home defense and Agropecuario's poor away scoring record make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Tristan Suarez have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Agropecuario have failed to score in 5 of their last 10 matches.
- Agropecuario have scored only 8 goals in 12 away matches.
- Tristan Suarez have conceded only 7 goals in 12 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tristan Suarez's strong home defense and Agropecuario's weak away attack support a home clean sheet.
- Tristan Suarez have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Tristan Suarez have conceded only 7 goals in 12 home matches.
- Agropecuario have failed to score in 5 of their last 10 matches.
- Agropecuario have scored only 8 goals in 12 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAgropecuario Argentino not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, especially Agropecuario, making a low-scoring first half likely.
- Tristan Suarez average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Agropecuario average 0.1 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- In 4 of the last 5 H2Hs, the first half had 1 goal or fewer.
- Agropecuario have scored only 1 first-half goal in their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tristan Suarez tend to score later in matches, and Agropecuario's defense weakens after halftime, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Tristan Suarez have scored 7 of their last 10 goals in the second half.
- Agropecuario have conceded 12 of their last 15 goals in the second half.
- Tristan Suarez average 0.5 second-half goals scored; Agropecuario average 0.8 second-half goals conceded.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Due to missing corner data, this prediction is based on the low attacking output of both teams, but confidence is low.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams have low possession and shot averages, suggesting fewer corners.
- Tristan Suarez average 0 corners per match; Agropecuario average 0 corners per match (data missing).
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 23% leaves no cushion vs our 20% estimate; the -1 handicap is priced too short for a team that often wins by a single goal.

Prediction history

Tristan Suarez has been perfect in recent Under 2.5 goals projections

Tristan Suarez has fulfilled all 6 of its Under 2.5 goals predictions in the last 6 matches. The average estimated probability was 70.8%, with an expected 4.3 fulfilled predictions, indicating consistent low-scoring outcomes. The current prediction of 65% sits within the historical range of 60-80%, and the team has performed equally well at home and away.

Recent evidence for Tristan Suarez6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·Primera Nacional