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Predictions graded

Dundee United0Dundee2

HT 0–1Sat 22 Aug 2026, 16:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 68%–32%ShotsShots 23–14On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 6–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Aug 2026, 08:23 · Europe/Bucharest

The Dundee derby is too close to call, with Dundee United slightly favored but no value in the market.

Avoid the home win (1.88), double chance (1.25), and all goals markets—the odds are overpriced relative to our model. Best to stay away or wait for live betting.

Context

Dundee United lost 0-4 to Celtic in the League Cup on 15 Aug 2026.
- Dundee United lost 0-4 to Hearts in the Premiership on 9 Aug 2026.
- They conceded 8 goals in those two matches.
Dundee lost 0-1 at Celtic in the Premiership on 3 Aug 2026.
- Dundee lost 0-3 at Aberdeen in the League Cup on 15 Aug 2026.
- They have not scored in their last two away matches.
Dundee United won 3-0 at home on 26 Apr 2026.
- Dundee won 1-0 at Tannadice on 3 Jan 2026.
- The other two meetings were a 2-2 draw and a 2-0 United away win.
Dundee United drew 1-1 with Rangers at home on 31 Jul 2026.
- Dundee United lost 0-4 to Celtic at home on 15 Aug 2026.
- They have won only one of their last five home matches in all competitions.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Dundee United

1.89fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 53%

0.0ppshort

Home advantage and the psychological boost from the recent 3-0 derby win give Dundee United a slight edge, though their overall form is poor.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Dundee United or Draw

1.25fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Home advantage and recent home form make Dundee United avoiding defeat the most likely double chance outcome.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.75fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Recent derby history and both teams' scoring tendencies suggest a decent chance of at least three goals, but the odds imply a higher probability than our model.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown they can score, and derby matches often feature goals from both sides, but the odds are slightly short of our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and the psychological boost from the recent 3-0 derby win give Dundee United a slight edge, though their overall form is poor.
- Dundee United won the most recent derby 3-0 at home on 26 Apr 2026.
- Dundee United are unbeaten in their last two home league matches (W1 D1).
- Dundee have lost their only away league match this season (0-1 vs Celtic).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDundee UnitedEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dundee's stronger start to the season and United's defensive struggles make an away win plausible, but derby unpredictability lowers confidence.
- Dundee won the derby at Tannadice 1-0 on 3 Jan 2026.
- Dundee have a better league record this season (W1 L1) than Dundee United (D1 L1).
- Dundee United have conceded 5 goals in their first two league matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDundeeEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Derby matches often produce tight contests, and both teams have shown they can cancel each other out.
- Two of the last five derbies ended in draws.
- Dundee United drew their only home league match this season (1-1 vs Rangers).
- Both teams have shown inconsistency in recent form.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and recent home form make Dundee United avoiding defeat the most likely double chance outcome.
- Dundee United are unbeaten in their last two home league matches.
- Dundee have lost their only away league match this season.
- Dundee United have not lost at home to Dundee in the last two meetings at Tannadice (W1 D1).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDundee United or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and the recent derby pattern give United a slight edge to lead at the break, but it's far from certain.
- Dundee United led at half-time in their last home derby (1-0).
- Dundee United have led at half-time in 40% of their recent matches.
- Dundee have trailed at half-time in 27% of their recent matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDundee UnitedEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A repeat of the last derby's HT/FT outcome is possible but not strongly supported by recent overall form.
- Dundee United won the last derby 3-0, leading 1-0 at half-time.
- Dundee United have won only 1 of their last 5 home matches.
- Dundee have lost only 1 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDundee United / Dundee UnitedEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score, and derby matches often feature goals from both sides.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 derbies.
- Dundee United have scored in 3 of their last 4 home matches.
- Dundee have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent derby history and both teams' scoring tendencies suggest a decent chance of at least three goals.
- 4 of the last 5 derbies had over 2.5 goals.
- Dundee United's last 3 home matches averaged 3.0 total goals.
- Dundee's last 5 away matches averaged 2.8 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, especially in derby encounters.
- In the last 5 derbies, a first-half goal was scored in 4 matches.
- Dundee United have scored a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Dundee have conceded a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves in derbies can open up, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- In the last 5 derbies, the second half produced over 1.5 goals in 3 matches.
- Dundee United's last 3 home matches averaged 1.7 second-half goals.
- Dundee's last 5 away matches averaged 1.4 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corner counts are close to the line, and derby intensity could push the total over, but confidence is low.
- Dundee United average 3.7 corners per match, Dundee average 5.3.
- In the last derby, total corners were 9 (2 for United, 7 for Dundee).
- Both teams' recent matches have seen an average of around 10 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The rivalry could lead to more cards, but the average card counts are not high enough for strong confidence.
- Dundee United average 2.0 yellow cards per match, Dundee average 1.2.
- In the last derby, total cards were 3 (2 for United, 1 for Dundee).
- Derby matches often feature increased disciplinary action.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 53% leaves no cushion vs our 38% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

L3-0Dundee UtdvDundeeApr 26, 2026PRE

D2-2DundeevDundee UtdMar 15, 2026PRE

W0-1Dundee UtdvDundeeJan 3, 2026PRE

W0-2DundeevDundee UtdAug 31, 2025PRE

W2-4Dundee UtdvDundeeMar 16, 2025PRE

Dundee United: 2 clean sheets3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Premiership 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Dundee United Premiership (Relegation Group)	2	0	1	1	1-5	1	LD
5	Dundee Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)	2	1	0	1	2-1	3	WL

2pt gap between teamsDundee United in relegation zone

Recent Form

Dundee United

L0-4CelticAug 15LEA

L0-4Heart Of MidlothianAug 9PRE

D1-1RangersJul 31PRE

L2-3Salford CityJul 25FRI

W4-0SpartansJul 21LEA

W3-0ArbroathJul 18LEA

L0-1MontroseJul 14LEA

W1-0Stirling AlbionJul 11LEA

D1-1ST MirrenMay 17PRE

D0-0LivingstonMay 12PRE

L0-2AberdeenMay 9PRE

L0-3KilmarnockMay 2PRE

W3-0DundeeApr 26PRE

W3-2LivingstonApr 11PRE

L2-4RangersApr 4PRE

Dundee

L0-3AberdeenAug 15LEA

W2-0AberdeenAug 8PRE

L0-1CelticAug 3PRE

W4-0ClydeJul 25LEA

L0-4EvertonJul 18FRI

W5-0Annan AthleticJul 14LEA

W4-2Airdrie UnitedJul 11LEA

D1-1BrechinJul 8FRI

L1-2Maccabi HaifaJul 4FRI

W2-1PaksJul 2FRI

L0-2LivingstonJun 27FRI

W3-2AberdeenMay 17PRE

L1-3KilmarnockMay 12PRE

W3-0LivingstonMay 9PRE

W1-0ST MirrenMay 2PRE

Squad & Injuries

Dundee United

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Dundee

27 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Dundee United

Dundee United or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result1 of 6 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Dundee United

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Dundee United

Dundee

Squad & Injuries

Dundee United

Dundee