HNLFull time

Predictions graded

Dinamo Zagreb3NK Varazdin1

HT 0–1Sat 22 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges6–275%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 8–3On targetOn target 4–1CornersCorners 0–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 16:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Dinamo Zagreb are strong favourites and should win, but the home win odds (1.25) offer no value.

The best bet is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.30, where our model sees a 60% probability versus the implied 43.5%—a +16.5 point edge. Avoid the short-priced match winner, double chance, and first-half over 0.5 goals markets.

Context

Dinamo Zagreb home record this season: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 6 goals scored, 0 conceded.
- In their last home HNL match against Rudes, they won 4-0 with 64% possession and 24 shots.
Varazdin away record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses.
- In that away match, they scored 4 goals and had 24 shots, but the sample is too small to draw firm conclusions.
Last five H2H meetings: 2-1, 0-4, 3-1, 2-2, 1-0.
- In four of those five matches, both teams scored in the second half or the total second-half goals exceeded 1.5.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Dinamo Zagreb

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Dinamo Zagreb are W2-D0-L0 at home this season with 6 goals scored and 0 conceded, while Varazdin have only one away match this season.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Dinamo Zagreb or Draw

1.07fair 1.11

BetBugs 90% · Market 93.5%

−3.5ppshort

Dinamo Zagreb's strong home form and Varazdin's limited away sample make a home win or draw highly likely.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Dinamo Zagreb at half-time / Dinamo Zagreb at full-time

1.75fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Dinamo Zagreb's strong home form and tendency to lead at half time make a home win at both intervals likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high scoring averages and recent H2H meetings have frequently exceeded 2.5 goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, and recent H2H matches have seen early goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dinamo Zagreb's dominant home form and superior H2H record, combined with Varazdin's weaker away performance, strongly favor a home win.
- Dinamo Zagreb home record this season: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 6 goals scored, 0 conceded
- Dinamo Zagreb last 5 HNL matches: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 13 goals scored, 2 conceded
- H2H last 5 meetings: Dinamo Zagreb 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; at home vs Varazdin: 2 wins, 0 losses
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDinamo ZagrebEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dinamo Zagreb's strong home form and Varazdin's limited away sample make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Dinamo Zagreb home record this season: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses
- Dinamo Zagreb last 5 HNL matches: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses
- Varazdin away record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses (only 1 away match)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDinamo Zagreb or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dinamo Zagreb's tendency to lead at half time and Varazdin's low first-half goals conceded suggest a home lead at the break.
- Dinamo Zagreb leading at half time in 47% of last 15 matches
- Varazdin trailing at half time in 13% of last 15 matches
- Dinamo Zagreb first half goals average: 0.9 vs Varazdin first half goals conceded average: 0.2
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDinamo ZagrebEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dinamo Zagreb's strong home form and tendency to lead at half time make a home win at both intervals likely.
- Dinamo Zagreb leading at half time in 47% of last 15 matches
- Dinamo Zagreb home record this season: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses
- Varazdin away record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses (only 1 away match)
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDinamo Zagreb/Dinamo ZagrebEstimated chance50%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring averages and recent H2H meetings have frequently exceeded 2.5 goals.
- Dinamo Zagreb average goals per match (last 15): 2.8 scored, 0.5 conceded
- Varazdin average goals per match (last 15): 1.9 scored, 0.8 conceded
- H2H last 5 meetings: total goals 3, 4, 4, 4, 1 (average 3.2)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dinamo Zagreb's strong defensive record at home and Varazdin's occasional scoring struggles suggest a clean sheet for the home side.
- Dinamo Zagreb conceded 0 goals in last 2 home HNL matches
- Dinamo Zagreb average goals conceded (last 15): 0.5
- Varazdin failed to score in 1 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dinamo Zagreb's solid home defense and Varazdin's inconsistent away scoring make a home clean sheet plausible.
- Dinamo Zagreb home record this season: 2 wins, 0 goals conceded
- Dinamo Zagreb average goals conceded (last 15): 0.5
- Varazdin scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNK Varazdin not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and recent H2H matches have seen early goals.
- Dinamo Zagreb first half goals average (last 15): 0.9
- Varazdin first half goals average (last 15): 1.1
- H2H last 5 meetings: first half goals in 4 of 5 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dinamo Zagreb's strong second-half scoring and the pattern of late goals in H2H matches support over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Dinamo Zagreb second half goals average (last 15): 1.9 (total 2.8 - first half 0.9)
- Varazdin second half goals average (last 15): 0.8 (total 1.9 - first half 1.1)
- H2H last 5 meetings: second half goals in 4 of 5 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dinamo Zagreb's high corner count and Varazdin's low corner count suggest a total above 8.5, but limited H2H corner data reduces confidence.
- Dinamo Zagreb average corners (last 15): 6.0
- Varazdin average corners (last 15): 2.5
- H2H last 5 meetings: corner data unavailable
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average a high number of shots on target, suggesting a total above 8.5, but variance is high.
- Dinamo Zagreb average shots on target (last 15): 6.8
- Varazdin average shots on target (last 15): 5.0
- Combined average shots on target: 11.8
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average yellow cards is close to 3.5, and Varazdin's higher card count could push the total over.
- Dinamo Zagreb average yellow cards (last 15): 1.4
- Varazdin average yellow cards (last 15): 2.0
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.4
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 80% leaves no cushion vs our 72% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W2-1Dinamo ZagrebvNK VarazdinApr 26, 2026HNL

W0-4NK VarazdinvDinamo ZagrebFeb 22, 2026HNL

W3-1Dinamo ZagrebvNK VarazdinNov 22, 2025HNL

D2-2NK VarazdinvDinamo ZagrebAug 30, 2025HNL

W1-0Dinamo ZagrebvNK VarazdinMay 25, 2025HNL

Dinamo Zagreb unbeaten in 5 meetingsDinamo Zagreb: 2 clean sheets3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

HNL 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Dinamo Zagreb Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	2	2	0	0	6-0	6	WW
2	NK Varazdin Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)	3	3	0	0	8-2	9	WWW

3pt gap between teamsNK Varazdin leads the league

Recent Form

Dinamo Zagreb

W4-0RudesAug 14HNL

W2-1Kauno ŽalgirisAug 11UEF

W5-0Kauno ŽalgirisAug 4UEF

W2-0NK Slaven BelupoJul 31HNL

D1-1FC ThunJul 21UEF

D0-0LNZ CherkasyJul 14FRI

W4-2KoperJul 8FRI

W9-0Brinje-GrosupljeJul 2FRI

W3-0RadomljeJun 26FRI

D0-0NK Lokomotiva ZagrebMay 23HNL

W4-1NK Slaven BelupoMay 17HNL

W2-0HNK RijekaMay 13CUP

W2-0HNK Hajduk SplitMay 9HNL

W2-1HNK GoricaMay 2HNL

W2-1NK VarazdinApr 26HNL

NK Varazdin

W2-0HNK RijekaAug 16HNL

W4-1NK Slaven BelupoAug 9HNL

W2-1HNK Hajduk SplitAug 2HNL

L0-2FK JablonecJul 30UEF

W3-2FK JablonecJul 23UEF

W2-0BeltinciJul 16FRI

W3-1KustosijaJul 16FRI

W3-1Bihor OradeaJul 12FRI

W1-0RadomljeJul 10FRI

W1-0CSKA 1948Jul 4FRI

W2-1FC VoluntariJul 2FRI

L1-2NK Lokomotiva ZagrebJun 27FRI

W2-0Istra 1961May 23HNL

W2-0VukovarMay 15HNL

D1-1NK Lokomotiva ZagrebMay 9HNL

Squad & Injuries

Dinamo Zagreb

38 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders15

Goalkeeper4

NK Varazdin

29 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Over 1.5

Dinamo Zagreb

Dinamo Zagreb or Draw

Dinamo Zagreb at half-time / Dinamo Zagreb at full-time

Over 2.5

NK Varazdin not to score

Over 0.5

Result3 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Dinamo Zagreb

Dinamo Zagreb or Draw

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Dinamo Zagreb

NK Varazdin

Squad & Injuries

Dinamo Zagreb

NK Varazdin