Draw
Market 26.7% · BetBugs 38%
Both teams struggle to win, with Alianza drawing 5 of 9 home games and Pereira winless away, making a draw the most likely outcome.
Primera AFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Back the draw at 3.75 — Alianza's home draws (5 of 9) and Pereira's away winless run (0W-3D-7L) make a stalemate the most likely outcome, with our model giving it a 38% chance versus the market's 26.7%.
Avoid the heavily juiced double chance and draw no bet lines, and monitor Pereira's administrative status before kickoff.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 3
Market 26.7% · BetBugs 38%
Both teams struggle to win, with Alianza drawing 5 of 9 home games and Pereira winless away, making a draw the most likely outcome.
Market 46.5% · BetBugs 55%
Both teams often draw at half time, and H2H supports a level first half.
Market 59.9% · BetBugs 62%
Both teams have low scoring averages and Alianza's home games average only 1.78 total goals, supporting a low-scoring contest.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 85.5% leaves no cushion vs our 68% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13-27 | 17 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15-32 | 10 |

