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Predictions graded

Radomlje1Aluminij Kidricevo3

HT 1–3Sun 16 Aug 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges4–357%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 00:07 · Europe/Bucharest

No strong betting edge exists in this match.

The only marginal value is the first-half draw at 2.25 (estimated 45% vs implied 44.4%), but it's a thin edge. Avoid goals markets: Over 2.5, BTTS Yes, and first-half Over 0.5 are all overpriced relative to our model. Expect a tight, low-scoring game with a draw or narrow win for either side.

Context

Home record this season: 0W-0D-2L, goals 1:4.
- Lost 1-2 to Bravo and 0-2 to Brinje-Grosuplje at home.
- Also lost three home friendlies in pre-season.
Away record this season: 0W-0D-1L, goals 0:1.
- Average goals per match: 0.5 overall, 0.1 in first half.
- Lost 0-1 to Olimpija Ljubljana away.
Last four H2H results: 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 2-1.
- Both teams scored in all four matches.
- No team has won by more than one goal in this stretch.
Played Dinamo Tirana on 23 and 30 July.
- Lost 0-3 away in the second leg.
- Also played Europa League qualifiers against Sheriff Tiraspol in July.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Radomlje

2.25fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 44.4%

0.0ppshort

Despite the negative edge, Radomlje's overall squad quality and balanced H2H record give them a fighting chance, but the odds do not offer value.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

3.10fair 3.33

BetBugs 30% · Market 32.3%

0.0ppshort

The draw probability is close to the market, but the slight negative edge suggests no value in backing the stalemate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite poor home form, Radomlje's overall squad quality and H2H balance give them a slight edge, but Aluminij's resilience keeps it close.
- Radomlje home record this season: 0W-0D-2L, goals 1:4
- Aluminij away record this season: 0W-0D-1L, goals 0:1
- H2H last 4 meetings: each team won twice, all 2-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRadomljeEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams struggle to win, with Aluminij drawing frequently and Radomlje winless at home, making a stalemate plausible.
- Aluminij last 5 matches: 3 draws, 2 losses
- Radomlje last 5 home matches: 0 wins, 2 losses, 3 draws (including friendlies)
- H2H last 5: 1 draw
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aluminij's defensive solidity and Radomlje's home struggles could allow the visitors to snatch a win, but their own away form is weak.
- Aluminij away record: 0W-0D-1L, goals 0:1
- Radomlje home record: 0W-0D-2L, goals 1:4
- H2H last 4: Aluminij won 2
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAluminij KidricevoEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Radomlje's superior first-half scoring record gives them an edge, but their overall inconsistency lowers confidence.
- Radomlje leading at half time in 33% of matches
- Aluminij leading at half time in 7% of matches
- Radomlje first half goals average: 0.6 vs Aluminij 0.1
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostRadomljeEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently go into halftime level, and Aluminij's defensive approach suggests a tight first half.
- Aluminij trailing at half time in 40% of matches
- Radomlje trailing at half time in 53% of matches
- Both teams often level at break
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aluminij rarely leads at the break, and their low first-half scoring makes this unlikely.
- Aluminij leading at half time in only 7% of matches
- Aluminij first half goals average: 0.1
- Radomlje first half goals conceded average: 0.9
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonAluminij KidricevoEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A stalemate at both intervals is plausible given the teams' tendencies, but low overall scoring reduces probability.
- Aluminij draws 40% of matches
- Radomlje draws 25% of matches
- Both teams have low scoring rates
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H consistently produces three goals, and Radomlje's leaky defense suggests a multi-goal game.
- H2H last 4 meetings all had exactly 3 goals
- Radomlje average total goals per match: 3.0 (1.1 for, 1.9 against)
- Aluminij average total goals per match: 1.7 (0.5 for, 1.2 against)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
H2H pattern shows both teams finding the net, and Radomlje's attack is capable while Aluminij can nick a goal.
- H2H last 4: both teams scored in all 4
- Radomlje scored in 8 of last 10 matches
- Aluminij scored in 5 of last 10 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Radomlje often scores in the first half, and H2H history shows early goals, making over 0.5 first half likely.
- Radomlje first half goals average: 0.6 per match
- Aluminij first half goals average: 0.1 per match
- H2H last 4: first half goals in 3 of 4
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as teams chase the game, but low scoring averages temper confidence.
- Radomlje second half goals average: 0.5 (1.1 total - 0.6 first half)
- Aluminij second half goals average: 0.4 (0.5 total - 0.1 first half)
- H2H last 4: second half goals in all 4
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, we rely on league average, but uncertainty is high.
- No corner data available for either team
- Both teams average low possession (0% in data)
- Typical 1. SNL matches average around 9 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 72% leaves no cushion vs our 70% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W1-2AluminijvRadomljeApr 3, 20261.

W2-1RadomljevAluminijJan 30, 20261.

L2-1AluminijvRadomljeSep 26, 20251.

L1-2RadomljevAluminijJul 18, 20251.

D1-1AluminijvRadomljeApr 15, 20241.

2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

1. SNL 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Radomlje	4	1	1	2	6-7	4	WLDL
10	Aluminij Kidricevo Relegation	3	0	2	1	1-2	2	DLD

2pt gap between teamsAluminij Kidricevo in relegation zone

Recent Form

Radomlje

W3-1MuraAug 101.

L1-2BravoAug 21.

D2-2KoperJul 261.

L0-2Brinje-GrosupljeJul 181.

L0-1NK VarazdinJul 10FRI

L0-2HNK RijekaJul 3FRI

L0-3Dinamo ZagrebJun 26FRI

W3-2MuraMay 221.

L1-2Olimpija LjubljanaMay 171.

L1-2BravoMay 91.

W2-1MariborMay 31.

W3-2PrimorjeApr 261.

L0-1Brinje-GrosupljeApr 22CUP

L0-3KoperApr 181.

L1-3CeljeApr 111.

Aluminij Kidricevo

D1-1NaftaAug 91.

L0-1Olimpija LjubljanaAug 21.

L0-3Dinamo TiranaJul 30UEF

D1-1Dinamo TiranaJul 23UEF

D0-0MariborJul 191.

L0-1Sheriff TiraspolJul 16UEF

D0-0Sheriff TiraspolJul 9UEF

L1-2FK PartizanJul 2FRI

L0-2FC NoahJun 28FRI

D2-2Pyunik YerevanJun 23FRI

D1-1RačeJun 19FRI

L0-3MariborMay 231.

D0-0PrimorjeMay 161.

W1-0Brinje-GrosupljeMay 13CUP

L0-1KoperMay 91.

Squad & Injuries

Radomlje

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Aluminij Kidricevo

27 available

Attackers7

Midfielders6

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Radomlje

Draw

Aluminij Kidricevo

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result2 of 7 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

@ 4.20

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Radomlje

Aluminij Kidricevo

Squad & Injuries

Radomlje

Aluminij Kidricevo