NB IFull time

Predictions graded

Ujpest1MTK Budapest1

HT 1–1Sat 15 Aug 2026, 14:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–633%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 01:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect goals in Ujpest vs MTK Budapest, with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score offering strong value.

Avoid the home win at short odds due to a negative edge and the H2H trend favoring away teams. For risk-tolerant bettors, over 1.5 first-half goals and over 4.5 cards present high-upside opportunities.

Context

Ujpest led at half-time in wins over Kisvarda (2-1) and Debrecen (2-1).
- MTK trailed at half-time in a 3-2 loss to Puskas Academy and a 3-3 draw at Budapest Honved.
- Ujpest average 0.9 first-half goals over the last 15 matches, while MTK concede 0.5 first-half goals on average.
In the last five H2H matches, the away team won four times: MTK won 2-1 and 5-1 at Ujpest, Ujpest won 4-3 and 3-1 at MTK.
- The most recent meeting in April 2026 ended 2-2 at Ujpest, breaking the away-win streak.
- Ujpest have avoided defeat in two of their last three home H2Hs, but MTK's 5-1 win in March 2025 shows their threat.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ujpest's strong start and home advantage give them the edge, but the H2H pattern of away wins and MTK's ability to score on the road suggest a close contest, making Ujpest a moderate favorite.
- Ujpest are top of the league with 6 points from 3 games, winning 2 and losing 1.
- Ujpest have won their only home league game this season 4-2 against Debreceni VSC.
- MTK Budapest have 4 points from 3 games, with their only away game a 3-3 draw at Budapest Honved.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, the away team has won 4 times, with Ujpest winning as the away team in 3 of those.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostUjpestEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Ujpest's home strength and MTK's poor away record, Ujpest are unlikely to lose, making the double chance a high-confidence selection.
- Ujpest have not lost at home in the league this season (1 win).
- MTK Budapest have not won away in the league this season (1 draw).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Ujpest have avoided defeat in 2 of 3 home games (1 draw, 1 loss).
- Ujpest's overall form (WWL) is better than MTK's (LDW).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUjpest or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ujpest's tendency to start strongly and MTK's slow starts make Ujpest the likely half-time leader, though the H2H shows some balance.
- Ujpest have led at half-time in 2 of their 3 league games this season.
- MTK Budapest have trailed at half-time in 2 of their 3 league games this season.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Ujpest have led at half-time in 2 matches, with 2 draws and 1 MTK lead.
- Ujpest average 0.9 first-half goals per game over the last 15 matches, while MTK average 0.7.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostUjpestEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Ujpest have shown the ability to lead at half-time and win, the low H2H occurrence and MTK's resilience make this a low-probability outcome.
- Ujpest have led at half-time and won the match in 2 of their 3 league games this season.
- MTK Budapest have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 1 of their 3 league games.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Ujpest have achieved HT/FT double only once.
- Ujpest's home record this season: 1 win, leading at half-time in that match.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostUjpest/UjpestEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams evenly matched in second-half performances and a tendency for draws in recent H2H second halves, a draw is a plausible but low-confidence pick.
- Ujpest's second-half results this season: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss.
- MTK Budapest's second-half results this season: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, the second half has been drawn in 2 matches.
- Both teams have shown the ability to score and concede in the second half, leading to balanced outcomes.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance35%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches this season, and the H2H history strongly supports goals, making over 2.5 goals highly likely.
- Ujpest's league matches this season have averaged 5.0 total goals (9 scored, 6 conceded in 3 games).
- MTK Budapest's league matches have averaged 4.67 total goals (8 scored, 6 conceded in 3 games).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 have seen over 2.5 goals, with an average of 4.4 goals per game.
- Both teams have scored in all 3 of Ujpest's league games and in 2 of MTK's 3 league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams consistently finding the net and a strong H2H trend, both teams scoring is a very likely outcome.
- Both teams have scored in all 3 of Ujpest's league matches this season.
- Both teams have scored in 2 of MTK Budapest's 3 league matches this season.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams have scored in 4 matches.
- Ujpest have conceded in all 3 league games, while MTK have scored in all 3.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ujpest's fast starts and MTK's vulnerability early in games suggest a good chance of multiple first-half goals.
- Ujpest's first-half goals this season: 2, 2, 1 (average 1.67 per game).
- MTK Budapest's first-half goals this season: 0, 1, 1 (average 0.67 per game).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 matches had over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Ujpest have led at half-time in 2 of 3 league games, while MTK have trailed at half-time in 2 of 3.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score after the break, and the H2H history shows frequent second-half goals, supporting over 1.5 in the second half.
- Ujpest's second-half goals this season: 2, 2, 0 (average 1.33 per game).
- MTK Budapest's second-half goals this season: 2, 2, 2 (average 2.0 per game).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Both teams have scored in the second half in 2 of Ujpest's 3 league games and in all 3 of MTK's league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the recent H2H suggests a high total, making over 9.5 corners a reasonable expectation.
- Ujpest average 5.0 corners per game over the last 15 matches, while MTK average 4.2.
- In Ujpest's last 5 league matches with corner data, total corners averaged 10.6.
- In MTK's last 5 league matches with corner data, total corners averaged 9.0.
- The most recent H2H match (April 2026) saw 15 corners (Ujpest 9, MTK 6).
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ujpest's higher disciplinary record and the competitive nature of the match suggest a decent chance of exceeding 4.5 total cards.
- Ujpest average 2.3 yellow cards per game over the last 15 matches.
- MTK Budapest average 1.4 yellow cards per game over the last 15 matches.
- In Ujpest's last 5 league matches with card data, total cards averaged 5.2.
- In MTK's last 5 league matches with card data, total cards averaged 4.4.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 52% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and the H2H away-win pattern adds risk.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

D2-2UjpestvMTK BudapestApr 4, 2026NB

W3-4MTK BudapestvUjpestDec 13, 2025NB

L1-2UjpestvMTK BudapestAug 30, 2025NB

W1-3MTK BudapestvUjpestMay 24, 2025NB

L1-5UjpestvMTK BudapestMar 1, 2025NB

4.8 goals/game avg

League Table

NB I 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Ujpest Play-offs	3	2	0	1	9-6	6	WWL
5	MTK Budapest	3	1	1	1	8-6	4	LDW

2pt gap between teamsUjpest leads the league

Recent Form

Ujpest

W4-2Kisvarda FCAug 8NB

W4-2Debreceni VSCAug 2NB

L1-2NyiregyhazaJul 24NB

W2-0Radnik BijeljinaJul 18FRI

D2-2Diosgyori VTKJul 11FRI

D1-1TSV HartbergJul 4FRI

D0-0Universitatea ClujJun 27FRI

W4-0Cegledi VSEJun 20FRI

L1-2Debreceni VSCMay 16NB

L0-5Ferencvarosi TCMay 3NB

L0-2Puskas AcademyApr 25NB

W7-2NyiregyhazaApr 17NB

W3-0KazincbarcikaiApr 11NB

D2-2MTK BudapestApr 4NB

L0-2Zalaegerszegi TEMar 21NB

MTK Budapest

L2-3Puskas AcademyAug 7NB

D3-3Budapest HonvedAug 1NB

W3-0Zalaegerszegi TEJul 27NB

D1-1KomárnoJul 18FRI

W3-0Kozarmisleny FCJul 18FRI

L1-3KoperJul 11FRI

L0-4LNZ CherkasyJul 11FRI

L3-4CeljeJul 8FRI

L2-3Kecskeméti TEJul 4FRI

W3-1VasasJul 1FRI

W4-2KazincbarcikaiJun 26FRI

D2-2Puskas AcademyMay 15NB

D1-1NyiregyhazaMay 2NB

D0-0KazincbarcikaiApr 24NB

W2-1Kisvarda FCApr 18NB

Squad & Injuries

Ujpest

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

MTK Budapest

31 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ujpest

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Over 4.5

Ujpest or Draw

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Ujpest

Over 4.5

Over 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Ujpest

MTK Budapest

Squad & Injuries

Ujpest

MTK Budapest