YkkönenFull time

Predictions graded

RoPS Rovaniemi2KuPS Academy1

HT 1–0Tue 11 Aug 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–189%

Edges6–186%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Aug 2026, 10:04 · Europe/Bucharest

RoPS are favorites at home but face suspensions and a KuPS Academy side that has kept recent top opponents within one goal.

The market overrates a comfortable home win and a high-scoring game, with the only marginal value in over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.67. Expect a tight, low-scoring match where the best betting approach is to avoid short-priced favorites and goals markets.

Context

RoPS official preview confirms Katermaa is suspended after a red card.
- Heiserholt is suspended after accumulating too many bookings.
- Heiserholt had also recently been injured, though he is reportedly feeling better.
RoPS official preview says there are only four regular-season rounds left.
- RoPS are still chasing Tampere United for top spot.
- KuPS Academy are fighting KPV to avoid relegation.
KuPS Academy drew 2-2 with OLS on 28 June.
- They drew 2-2 with SalPa on 12 June.
- They lost 1-0 to RoPS on 24 May.
- They lost 3-2 to Tampere United on 4 July and 2-1 to VJS on 26 July.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

RoPS Rovaniemi

1.35fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 74%

0.0ppshort

RoPS have strong home form (5W-3D-1L) and motivation to chase top spot, while KuPS Academy are winless away (0W-4D-5L), but the odds imply a 74% chance which overstates the true probability given the tight H2H history and suspensions.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

RoPS Rovaniemi or Draw

1.14fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

RoPS are very hard to beat at home (only 1 loss in 9) and KuPS Academy have not won away all season, making a home win or draw highly probable, though the odds offer no value edge.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high BTTS rates in their respective home/away splits (67% and 78%), but the odds are short and leave no margin for error.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

−12.0ppshort

RoPS average 2.67 goals per home game and face a leaky KuPS away defense, but the odds are extremely short and offer no value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.11fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 90.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a high frequency of first-half goals in recent matches, but the odds are prohibitively short and offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
RoPS have strong home form and high motivation to chase first place, while KuPS Academy are winless away and under relegation pressure, making a home win likely.
- RoPS home record: 5W-3D-1L, 24 goals for, 11 against in 9 matches.
- KuPS Academy away record: 0W-4D-5L, 14 goals for, 26 against in 9 matches.
- RoPS won the most recent H2H 1-0 away in May 2026.
- RoPS are 2nd with 33 points, chasing top spot; KuPS are 12th with 11 points.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRoPS RovaniemiEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
RoPS are very hard to beat at home, and KuPS Academy have not won away all season, so a RoPS win or draw is highly probable.
- RoPS home record: only 1 loss in 9 home games.
- KuPS Academy away record: 0 wins in 9 away games.
- H2H last 7: RoPS lost only 1, with 3 draws.
- RoPS average 2.67 goals per home game; KuPS concede 2.89 per away game.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRoPS Rovaniemi or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
RoPS have a slight edge in first-half performance at home, but the high draw rate and inconsistent leads make this a low-confidence pick.
- RoPS home first-half record: led at HT in 33% of matches, trailed in 40%.
- KuPS Academy away first-half record: led at HT in 13%, trailed in 40%.
- RoPS have led at HT in 2 of last 5 home games.
- KuPS Academy have trailed at HT in 3 of last 5 away games.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonRoPS RovaniemiEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
RoPS often start slowly at home but improve in the second half, and KuPS Academy have a pattern of fading after level first halves, making a draw/RoPS double plausible.
- RoPS home HT-FT: 2 draws at HT turned into wins.
- KuPS Academy away HT-FT: 2 draws at HT turned into losses.
- H2H last meeting: 0-0 at HT, RoPS won 1-0.
- RoPS have drawn at HT in 3 of last 5 home games.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / RoPS RovaniemiEstimated chance25%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and season averages show high-scoring trends, especially in RoPS home and KuPS away games, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- RoPS home matches average 3.89 total goals (24 for, 11 against in 9 games).
- KuPS Academy away matches average 4.44 total goals (14 for, 26 against in 9 games).
- RoPS last 5 home games: 4 had over 2.5 goals.
- KuPS Academy last 5 away games: 4 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score and concede in their respective home/away splits, making both teams scoring likely.
- RoPS home games: both teams scored in 6 of 9 (67%).
- KuPS Academy away games: both teams scored in 7 of 9 (78%).
- RoPS have scored in 8 of last 9 home games.
- KuPS Academy have scored in 7 of last 9 away games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
RoPS have a strong home scoring record and face a leaky KuPS away defense, so they are likely to score at least twice.
- RoPS average 2.67 goals per home game.
- RoPS scored 2+ goals in 7 of 9 home games.
- KuPS Academy concede 2.89 goals per away game.
- RoPS scored 2+ in 4 of last 5 home games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonRoPS Rovaniemi over 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of first-half goals in recent matches, making over 0.5 first-half goals probable.
- RoPS home first-half goals: 0.7 per game, conceded 0.7 per game.
- KuPS Academy away first-half goals: 0.6 per game, conceded 1.1 per game.
- RoPS last 5 home games: first-half goal in 4 of 5.
- KuPS Academy last 5 away games: first-half goal in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches tend to open up in the second half, with high second-half goal averages, supporting over 1.5 goals after the break.
- RoPS home games average 2.0 second-half goals (total goals minus first-half).
- KuPS Academy away games average 2.8 second-half goals.
- RoPS last 5 home games: 4 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- KuPS Academy last 5 away games: 4 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, the general league trend and match context of RoPS attacking at home suggest a moderate chance of over 8.5 corners.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Typical Ykkönen matches average around 9-10 corners.
- RoPS home matches likely see more attacking pressure, leading to corners.
- KuPS Academy away matches likely concede corners due to defensive pressure.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 74% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read and suspensions add uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

3W · 2D · 0W

W0-1KuPS AkatemiavRopsMay 24, 2026YKK

W0-3RopsvKuPS AkatemiaAug 23, 2025YKK

D1-1KuPS AkatemiavRopsJun 15, 2025YKK

W1-2KuPS AkatemiavRopsAug 10, 2024YKK

D1-1RopsvKuPS AkatemiaMay 26, 2024YKK

RoPS Rovaniemi unbeaten in 5 meetingsRoPS Rovaniemi: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Ykkönen 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	RoPS Rovaniemi	18	9	6	3	40-24	33	DLWDW
12	KuPS Academy	18	2	5	11	29-42	11	LDDLD

22pt gap between teams

Recent Form

RoPS Rovaniemi

D2-2FC jazzAug 5YKK

L3-6TPVAug 1YKK

W4-0JJKJul 25YKK

D1-1KPV-jJul 20YKK

W2-0Inter Turku IIJul 10YKK

W4-3PKKUJul 5YKK

D2-2SalPaJun 27YKK

W2-0VJSJun 13YKK

L0-1Tampere UnitedJun 6YKK

D1-1OLSJun 2YKK

W1-0KuPS AkatemiaMay 24YKK

L1-2FC jazzMay 16YKK

L0-4HJK HelsinkiMay 13SUO

W1-0TPVMay 9YKK

D3-3JJKMay 2YKK

KuPS Academy

L0-1Inter Turku IIAug 7YKK

D2-2FC jazzJul 30YKK

D2-2VJSJul 26YKK

L1-3TPVJul 18YKK

D4-4JJKJul 11YKK

L2-3Tampere UnitedJul 4YKK

D2-2OLSJun 28YKK

L3-4SalPaJun 12YKK

W4-1KPV-jJun 5YKK

L0-3PKKUMay 29YKK

L0-1RopsMay 24YKK

L2-4Inter Turku IIMay 17YKK

L0-1HonkaMay 13SUO

L1-2FC jazzMay 9YKK

D0-0VJSMay 2YKK

Squad & Injuries

RoPS Rovaniemi

21 available

Attackers7

Midfielders5

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

KuPS Academy

32 available

Attackers9

Midfielders9

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

RoPS Rovaniemi

RoPS Rovaniemi or Draw

Over 3.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Over 0.5

Result3 of 4 landed

Goals5 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

RoPS Rovaniemi

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

RoPS Rovaniemi

KuPS Academy

Squad & Injuries

RoPS Rovaniemi

KuPS Academy