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Predictions graded

San Lorenzo0Huracan2

HT 0–1Sun 9 Aug 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges5–456%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 8–14On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 2–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Aug 2026, 16:51 · Europe/Bucharest

A low-scoring derby is expected, with the last five H2H meetings all under 2.5 goals.

The top betting edge is under 0.5 first-half goals (+13 points), backed by four 0-0 halftime scores in those five games. The draw also offers slight value, but avoid over 2.5 goals and both teams to score markets.

Context

Huracán won the two most recent decisive meetings (1-0 and 2-0).
- Three of the last five H2H matches ended with Huracán clean sheets.
- All five matches finished with under 2.5 goals.
Huracán's away record: 1 win, 6 draws, 1 loss.
- They conceded only 5 goals in 8 away league matches.
- Their last away match was a 2-1 loss, but they had a red card.
San Lorenzo home record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses.
- They scored 10 goals and conceded 11 in 8 home games.
- They lost their last home derby against Huracán 1-0 in February 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge is neutralized by Huracan's strong away draw tendency and the balanced H2H history, making a draw the most probable single outcome.
- 3 of last 5 H2H meetings ended in draws.
- San Lorenzo home record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses.
- Huracan away record: 1 win, 6 draws, 1 loss.
- Both teams have identical overall records (5W-7D-4L) and points (22).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Huracan's poor away win rate and San Lorenzo's home resilience in derbies make a home win or draw the safer double chance.
- San Lorenzo lost only 1 of last 5 H2H meetings at home (1W-3D-1L).
- Huracan won only 1 of 8 away league games this season.
- San Lorenzo home form: 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses (50% unbeaten).
- Huracan away form: 1 win, 6 draws, 1 loss (87.5% unbeaten but few wins).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSan Lorenzo or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H psychology and both teams' high draw rates at half-time strongly point to a level score at the break.
- 4 of last 5 H2H meetings were draws at half-time.
- San Lorenzo half-time results in last 15: 13% leading, 33% trailing, 54% drawing.
- Huracan half-time results in last 15: 13% leading, 13% trailing, 74% drawing.
- Both teams average 0.3-0.5 first-half goals, indicating few leads.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a draw is plausible, the specific HT/FT double of draw/draw is less certain but supported by the teams' draw-heavy profiles and low-scoring H2H.
- 3 of last 5 H2H meetings ended in draws, with 2 of those 0-0 at half-time.
- San Lorenzo drew 7 of 16 league games; Huracan drew 7 of 16.
- Huracan drew 6 of 8 away games.
- Both teams have low scoring rates, increasing chance of a stalemate.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Strong H2H pattern of low-scoring derbies combined with both teams' low goal averages makes under 2.5 goals highly likely.
- Last 5 H2H meetings all finished under 2.5 goals (0-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-1, 0-0).
- San Lorenzo averages 0.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Huracan averages 1.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over last 15 matches.
- San Lorenzo home record: 10 goals for, 11 against in 8 games (2.63 total goals per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology shows Huracan's defensive edge over San Lorenzo, and both teams struggle to score consistently, suggesting at least one side will fail to score.
- Huracan kept 3 clean sheets in last 5 H2H meetings.
- San Lorenzo failed to score in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- San Lorenzo scored only 0.7 goals per game on average over last 15 matches.
- Huracan conceded only 5 goals in 8 away league games this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have very low first-half scoring rates and the H2H pattern shows a strong tendency for goalless first halves, supporting under 0.5 first-half goals.
- San Lorenzo averages 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Huracan averages 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded over last 15 matches.
- 4 of last 5 H2H meetings were 0-0 at half-time.
- San Lorenzo led at half-time in only 13% of recent matches, Huracan in 13%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams showing higher scoring rates after the break and H2H history supporting second-half action, over 0.5 second-half goals is probable.
- San Lorenzo averages 0.4 second-half goals scored (0.7 total - 0.3 first half).
- Huracan averages 0.6 second-half goals scored (1.1 total - 0.5 first half).
- 3 of last 5 H2H meetings had second-half goals.
- Both teams tend to score more in second halves based on recent form.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 4-5 corners per game, and the derby context often leads to cautious play, making under 9.5 total corners likely.
- San Lorenzo averages 4.3 corners per game over last 15 matches.
- Huracan averages 4.6 corners per game over last 15 matches.
- Combined average corners in recent H2H meetings: approximately 8.2 (based on available data).
- Both teams' recent matches show moderate corner counts, rarely exceeding 10.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The derby intensity and both teams' card averages suggest a higher likelihood of cards, with over 4.5 total cards a reasonable expectation.
- San Lorenzo averages 2.2 yellow cards per game over last 15 matches.
- Huracan averages 3.0 yellow cards per game over last 15 matches.
- Derby matches often feature higher disciplinary actions due to intensity.
- Recent H2H meetings have seen multiple cards (exact data limited but pattern suggests physicality).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 27.8% leaves no cushion vs our 20% estimate; vig too heavy for a directional Over play.

Head-to-Head

0W · 3D · 2W

L1-0HuracanvSan LorenzoFeb 8, 2026LIG

D0-0San LorenzovHuracanAug 30, 2025LIG

L2-0HuracanvSan LorenzoFeb 23, 2025LIG

D1-1San LorenzovHuracanJul 20, 2024LIG

D0-0HuracanvSan LorenzoFeb 24, 2024COP

Huracan unbeaten in 5 meetingsSan Lorenzo: 2 clean sheetsHuracan: 4 clean sheets1 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Profesional Argentina 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	San Lorenzo Knockout Phase	16	5	7	4	14-14	22	LWLLL
7	Huracan Knockout Phase	16	5	7	4	17-13	22	DLWLW

Recent Form

San Lorenzo

L0-1Central Cordoba de SantiagoAug 4LIG

W1-0Gimnasia M.Jul 28LIG

L0-1LanusJul 26LIG

L0-1Deportivo RecoletaMay 27CON

D2-2SantosMay 20CON

D0-0Deportivo CuencaMay 6CON

L1-2IndependienteMay 2LIG

D1-1SantosApr 28CON

W1-0PlatenseApr 25LIG

D0-0Velez SarsfieldApr 20LIG

W2-0Deportivo CuencaApr 17CON

D0-0Newells Old BoysApr 12LIG

D1-1Deportivo RecoletaApr 8CON

W1-0Estudiantes L.P.Apr 3LIG

D1-1Deportivo RiestraMar 25LIG

Huracan

D0-0Atletico TucumanAug 4LIG

L1-2Independ. RivadaviaJul 30LIG

W1-0BanfieldJul 25LIG

L0-1Barracas CentralJun 3COP

D0-0Racing ClubMay 3LIG

L1-2Argentinos JRSApr 28LIG

D1-1TigreApr 21LIG

W3-1Rosario CentralApr 12LIG

W3-0Gimnasia L.P.Apr 5LIG

W2-1Olimpo Bahia BlancaMar 29COP

D0-0Barracas CentralMar 24LIG

D0-0AldosiviMar 16LIG

L1-2River PlateMar 13LIG

W3-1Belgrano CordobaMar 3LIG

L0-2Estudiantes de Rio CuartoFeb 26LIG

Squad & Injuries

San Lorenzo

33 available

Attackers7

Midfielders13

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Huracan

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5

Draw

Draw

Over 4.5

Under 2.5

No

Over 0.5

San Lorenzo or Draw

Under 9.5

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

San Lorenzo

Huracan

Squad & Injuries

San Lorenzo

Huracan