AllsvenskanFull time

Predictions graded

Malmo FF1Degerfors2

HT 0–1Sun 9 Aug 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges0–60%

PossPossession 74%–26%ShotsShots 14–5On targetOn target 2–3CornersCorners 5–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 08:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Malmö's dominant H2H record and Degerfors' five-match scoreless streak make a home win highly likely, but the best value lies in Both Teams to Score – No (1.95, +8.7-point edge) and Over 1.5 First Half Goals (2.25, +15.6-point edge), exploiting Degerfors' attacking futility and Malmö's fast starts.

Context

Degerfors have lost their last 5 Allsvenskan matches, all without scoring.
- They have scored only 12 goals in 15 league games this season, the fewest in the division.
- In their last 5 matches, they managed only 7 shots on target combined.
Rösler made 82 competitive appearances for Malmö and started 15 of 16 Europa League knockout matches.
- The sporting director noted his playing time had decreased this season, but he remained a squad regular.
- The sale was confirmed on August 2, just seven days before this match.
Helstrup said after the 2-1 win over Brommapojkarna that Malmö's press was effective but they were vulnerable to counters.
- He specifically mentioned one-v-one duels as a concern.
- Degerfors, despite their scoring woes, could look to hit on the break.
Malmö sit 4th, two points behind 3rd-placed AIK Stockholm.
- Degerfors are 15th, three points below the relegation-playoff position and six from outright safety.
- A win for Degerfors could lift them out of the bottom two depending on other results.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Malmo FF's dominant H2H record and Degerfors' terrible form (5 straight losses without scoring) make a home win highly likely, despite Malmo's inconsistent home results.
- Malmo FF won 4 of last 5 H2H meetings, outscoring Degerfors 13-3.
- Degerfors have lost their last 5 league matches, scoring 0 goals in those games.
- Malmo FF home record this season: 3 wins, 4 losses, but 19 goals scored in 7 home games (2.71 per game).
- Degerfors away record: 1 win, 2 draws, 4 losses, with only 6 goals scored in 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMalmo FFEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Malmo's historical dominance and Degerfors' inability to win, the double chance covers the remote possibility of a draw, which occurred in one of the last two H2H meetings at Malmo.
- Malmo FF are unbeaten in last 10 H2H meetings (8 wins, 2 draws).
- Degerfors have not won any of their last 5 away matches (2 draws, 3 losses).
- Malmo FF have lost only 2 of their last 8 away matches, but at home they have 4 losses in 7; however, against bottom side Degerfors, a loss is unlikely.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostMalmo FF or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Malmo's tendency to start strong at home and Degerfors' habit of falling behind early make a halftime lead for the hosts likely.
- Malmo FF led at halftime in 3 of 7 home matches (43%).
- Degerfors trailed at halftime in 67% of all matches, and in 5 of 7 away matches (71%).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Malmo led at halftime in 3 matches.
- Malmo FF average 1.57 first-half goals at home, while Degerfors concede 1.14 first-half goals away.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostMalmo FFEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given Degerfors' poor form and Malmo's ability to start fast at home, a halftime/fulltime double for Malmo is a solid possibility, though not a certainty due to Malmo's occasional home struggles.
- Malmo FF led at halftime and won the match in 3 of 7 home games (43%).
- Degerfors trailed at halftime and lost the match in 5 of 7 away games (71%).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Malmo led at halftime and won the match in 3 instances.
- Degerfors have lost all of their last 5 matches, trailing at halftime in 4 of them.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostMalmo FF / Malmo FFEstimated chance50%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Malmo's high-scoring home games and the historical trend of high-scoring H2H encounters suggest over 2.5 goals, though Degerfors' recent scoring drought adds some risk.
- Malmo FF home matches average 4.71 total goals (19 scored, 14 conceded in 7 games).
- 4 of last 5 H2H meetings had over 2.5 goals.
- Degerfors away matches average 2.57 total goals (6 scored, 12 conceded in 7 games).
- Malmo FF scored 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Degerfors' severe scoring problems make it likely they will fail to score again, especially against a Malmo side that has kept them scoreless in recent meetings.
- Degerfors have failed to score in their last 5 league matches.
- Degerfors have scored only 6 goals in 7 away matches this season.
- Malmo FF kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 5 H2H meetings, including the most recent one (1-0).
- Malmo FF have conceded in 6 of 7 home matches, but Degerfors' attack is the weakest in the league (12 goals in 15 games).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Malmo's defensive vulnerabilities at home, Degerfors' complete lack of scoring threat makes a home clean sheet more likely than not.
- Degerfors have not scored in any of their last 5 league matches.
- Malmo FF kept a clean sheet in the most recent H2H (1-0 win).
- Degerfors average only 0.86 goals per away game.
- Malmo FF have only 1 clean sheet in 7 home games, but Degerfors' attack is exceptionally poor.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDegerfors not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Malmo's strong first-half scoring at home combined with Degerfors' tendency to concede early suggests a high probability of multiple first-half goals.
- Malmo FF average 1.1 first-half goals per game overall, and 1.57 first-half goals at home (11 goals in 7 home first halves).
- Degerfors concede 0.9 first-half goals on average, but in away games they concede 1.14 first-half goals (8 in 7 away first halves).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 had over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Malmo FF led at halftime in 27% of matches, but at home they led at halftime in 3 of 7 (43%).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 4.5 corners, and recent H2H meetings have hovered around the 8.5 line, making over 8.5 a marginal but reasonable pick.
- Malmo FF average 4.4 corners per game, Degerfors average 4.6.
- Combined average corners in Malmo home games: 8.4 (Malmo 4.7, opponents 3.7).
- Combined average corners in Degerfors away games: 9.7 (Degerfors 4.7, opponents 5.0).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total corners were: 11, 8, 9, 7, 9 (average 8.8).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average just over 2 cards per game, and with the match having relegation implications for Degerfors, a slightly higher card count is plausible.
- Malmo FF average 2.1 yellow cards per game, Degerfors average 2.1.
- Combined average cards in Malmo home games: 3.7 (Malmo 2.0, opponents 1.7).
- Combined average cards in Degerfors away games: 4.3 (Degerfors 2.6, opponents 1.7).
- In the most recent H2H, there were 3 yellow cards (Malmo 2, Degerfors 1).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 88% leaves no cushion vs our 88% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W0-1Degerfors IFvMalmo FFJul 4, 2026ALL

D1-1Malmo FFvDegerfors IFAug 31, 2025ALL

W1-4Degerfors IFvMalmo FFMay 11, 2025ALL

W1-2Degerfors IFvMalmo FFSep 23, 2023ALL

W5-0Malmo FFvDegerfors IFJun 5, 2023ALL

Malmo FF unbeaten in 5 meetingsMalmo FF: 2 clean sheets3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Allsvenskan 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Malmo FF	15	7	2	6	30-25	23	WLDWW
15	Degerfors Relegation	15	2	4	9	12-26	10	LLLLL

13pt gap between teamsDegerfors in relegation zone

Recent Form

Malmo FF

W2-1IF BrommapojkarnaAug 2ALL

L1-2IF ElfsborgJul 26ALL

D2-2Kalmar FFJul 20ALL

W4-0IFK GoteborgJul 12ALL

W1-0Degerfors IFJul 4ALL

D2-2FC MidtjyllandJun 26FRI

W5-2HalmstadMay 30ALL

L2-3Vasteras SK FKMay 24ALL

L1-4Hammarby FFMay 17ALL

L2-3BK HackenMay 10ALL

L2-3Mjallby AIFMay 3ALL

W1-0AIK StockholmApr 27ALL

L2-3SiriusApr 23ALL

W1-0Djurgardens IFApr 17ALL

W3-1GaisApr 12ALL

Degerfors

L0-2IFK GoteborgAug 2ALL

L0-1Djurgardens IFJul 25ALL

L0-4Hammarby FFJul 19ALL

L0-2Vasteras SK FKJul 12ALL

L0-1Malmo FFJul 4ALL

W3-2LillestromJun 26FRI

D2-2IF BrommapojkarnaMay 31ALL

L1-2Kalmar FFMay 23ALL

D1-1GaisMay 16ALL

L1-4Mjallby AIFMay 9ALL

D1-1BK HackenMay 2ALL

D1-1Orgryte ISApr 27ALL

W2-1AIK StockholmApr 23ALL

L0-1IF ElfsborgApr 17ALL

W3-0HalmstadApr 12ALL

Squad & Injuries

Malmo FF

35 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Degerfors

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders12

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Malmo FF

Malmo FF

Malmo FF at half-time / Malmo FF at full-time

No

Over 1.5

Malmo FF or Draw

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Malmo FF or Draw

Degerfors not to score

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Malmo FF

Degerfors

Squad & Injuries

Malmo FF

Degerfors