Ham-Kam1Aalesund1

HT 0–1Sun 9 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 12–10On targetOn target 6–2CornersCorners 8–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 09:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Ham-Kam's home strength and Aalesund's leaky defense make a home win or draw the safest outcome, but the best betting value is on over 9.5 corners, where Aalesund's away matches consistently produce high corner counts.

Steer clear of Ham-Kam to win outright or lead at halftime, as the odds don't reflect the match's uncertainty.

Context

Aalesund are 14th with 15 points, one above Kristiansund and two behind 13th-placed Sandefjord.
- Sandefjord and Start play earlier on the same day, so Aalesund will know if a win can lift them out of the playoff spot.
- Kristiansund face Molde later, giving Aalesund a chance to build a buffer.
Vålerenga had a player sent off in the 15th minute with the score 0-0.
- Aksel Potur drew the red card, scored the opener, and won the free kick that led to 2-0.
- Ham-Kam's previous two league matches were a 1-0 loss at Sarpsborg and a 3-0 loss at Bodø/Glimt.
Lost 2-6 at home to Tromsø on 2 August, conceding from counters and set-pieces.
- Lost 1-6 away to Vålerenga on 16 July, trailing 3-0 at half-time.
- Have conceded 14 goals in 6 away matches this season, an average of 2.33 per game.
Christensen scored the equaliser against Viking on 26 July before serving a one-match ban.
- No Ham-Kam matchday squad was published by 4 August, but his potential return is noted in Aalesund's pre-match coverage.
- He has been a regular starter, contributing goals from midfield.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ham-Kam's strong home form (5W-0D-2L) and Aalesund's poor away record (1W-2D-3L) combined with historical H2H dominance give Ham-Kam the edge, though Aalesund's relegation fight adds uncertainty.
- Ham-Kam home record: 5 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses in 7 home matches this season (13 goals for, 11 against).
- Aalesund away record: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses in 6 away matches (6 goals for, 14 against).
- Ham-Kam unbeaten in last 5 league H2H meetings (2 wins, 3 draws).
- Aalesund conceded 6 goals in their last away match vs Tromso, showing defensive fragility.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHam-KamEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ham-Kam's strong home record and Aalesund's inability to win away (only 1 away win all season) make a home win or draw highly likely, supported by H2H trends.
- Ham-Kam have not lost at home to Aalesund in last 5 competitive meetings (2 wins, 3 draws).
- Aalesund have only 1 away win all season, with 5 losses/draws in 6 away games.
- Ham-Kam's home form: 5 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses; Aalesund's away form: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses.
- Aalesund's last 5 matches: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses (LDLDD).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHam-Kam or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ham-Kam's tendency to start well at home (led at HT in 3/7) against Aalesund's poor first-half away record (trailed in 3/6) gives a slight edge, but low confidence due to inconsistency.
- Ham-Kam led at halftime in 33% of matches this season, but in 3 of 7 home games.
- Aalesund trailed at halftime in 40% of matches, and in 3 of 6 away games.
- Ham-Kam scored first-half goals in 4 of 7 home matches.
- Aalesund conceded first-half goals in 5 of 6 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonHam-KamEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ham-Kam's strong home form includes several HT/FT wins, but Aalesund's desperation to avoid relegation could disrupt the pattern, making this a low-confidence pick.
- Ham-Kam led at halftime and won the match in 3 of 7 home games this season.
- Aalesund trailed at halftime and lost the match in 3 of 6 away games this season.
- Ham-Kam won 5 of 7 home matches overall.
- Aalesund lost 3 of 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostHam-Kam/Ham-KamEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches tend to be high-scoring, especially Aalesund's leaky defense on the road (14 conceded in 6 away games), and recent H2H meetings consistently produce goals.
- Ham-Kam home matches average 3.43 total goals (13 goals for, 11 against in 7 games).
- Aalesund away matches average 3.33 total goals (6 goals for, 14 against in 6 games).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals (2-2, 2-2, 0-2, 2-1, 3-1).
- Aalesund conceded 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ham-Kam consistently score at home, while Aalesund rarely keep clean sheets (only 1 all season) but manage to score in most away games, making both teams scoring probable.
- Ham-Kam scored in 6 of 7 home matches this season (13 goals total).
- Aalesund scored in 5 of 6 away matches this season (6 goals total).
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings (2-2, 2-2, 2-1, 3-1).
- Aalesund have only 1 clean sheet in 15 league matches this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ham-Kam's home scoring record (2+ goals in 5/7 games) against Aalesund's poor away defense (2+ conceded in 5/6) suggests Ham-Kam will score at least twice.
- Ham-Kam scored 2+ goals in 5 of 7 home matches this season.
- Ham-Kam average 1.86 goals per home match.
- Aalesund conceded 2+ goals in 5 of 6 away matches this season.
- Ham-Kam scored 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings vs Aalesund.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostHam-Kam over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aalesund have scored in most away games, and Ham-Kam's home defense is not watertight (only 2 clean sheets), so an away goal is likely.
- Aalesund scored in 5 of 6 away matches this season.
- Ham-Kam kept only 2 clean sheets in 7 home matches this season.
- Aalesund scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings vs Ham-Kam.
- Aalesund average 1.0 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAalesund over 0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, with first-half goals occurring in the majority of their respective home/away matches, and H2H history supports a goal before the break.
- Ham-Kam home matches: first-half goals in 6 of 7 games (0.5 goals for, 0.7 against on average).
- Aalesund away matches: first-half goals in 5 of 6 games (0.5 goals for, 1.0 against on average).
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals in 4 of 5 meetings.
- Aalesund trailing at halftime in 40% of matches this season.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Aalesund's away matches consistently produce high corner counts (average 11.3), and H2H history shows frequent double-digit corners, making over 9.5 likely.
- Ham-Kam home matches average 8.7 total corners (3.5 for, 5.2 against).
- Aalesund away matches average 11.3 total corners (5.2 for, 6.1 against).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: total corners of 12, 12, 10, 9, 11 (all over 9.5 except one).
- Aalesund's last 5 away matches: total corners of 13, 14, 15, 10, 10.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Aalesund's away matches tend to be feisty (4.3 cards on average), and H2H encounters often exceed 3.5 cards, suggesting a card-heavy game.
- Ham-Kam home matches average 2.6 yellow cards (1.3 for, 1.3 against).
- Aalesund away matches average 4.3 yellow cards (2.3 for, 2.0 against).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: total cards of 4, 5, 3, 4, 5 (all over 3.5 except one).
- Aalesund received 2+ yellow cards in 5 of 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 49% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Ham-Kam has seen Over 2.5 goals land in 6 of 8 recent matches

In 8 recent matches where Ham-Kam was involved and Over 2.5 goals was projected, the bet landed 6 times. The average estimated probability was 59.6%, with an expected 4.8 fulfilled predictions, so actual outcomes exceeded expectation. The current probability of 60% sits within the historical range of 55–82%.

Recent evidence for Ham-Kam8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Eliteserien