Primera AFull time

Predictions graded

Deportivo Pasto0Deportivo Cali2

HT 0–1Sun 9 Aug 2026, 01:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 10–17On targetOn target 4–6CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Aug 2026, 23:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Deportivo Pasto's five-match losing streak and Deportivo Cali's H2H dominance make a home win unlikely.

The standout bet is 'Draw or Deportivo Cali' in the double chance market, offering a +5 point edge. For higher odds, the half-time draw is a value play at 1.91, backed by five consecutive H2H draws at the break.

Context

Pasto lost their last five Primera A matches: LLLLL.
- They conceded 2+ goals in four of those five losses.
- At home, Pasto have only 2 wins in their last 7 across all competitions (2W, 2D, 3L).
- Their most recent home league match was a 1-2 loss to Águilas Doradas.
Cali conceded only 0.6 goals per game on average in their last 15 matches.
- They kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 8 matches across all competitions.
- In their last away league match, they lost 0-1 but had previously kept two straight away clean sheets.
- Pasto have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
Cali won 3-0 at home on 1 Feb 2026 and 2-1 at home on 14 Sep 2025.
- The last meeting in Pasto ended 1-1 on 29 Mar 2025.
- Cali are unbeaten in the last 3 H2H matches (2W, 1D).
- Pasto have not beaten Cali since a 2-0 away win in September 2024.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average well under 1.0 first-half goals and H2H history shows 5/5 recent meetings under 1.5 first-half goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Deportivo Cali's recent H2H dominance and Pasto's terrible Clausura form (5 straight losses) give Cali a clear edge, despite Pasto's historically solid home record.
- Deportivo Cali won last 2 H2H meetings (3-0 on 1 Feb 2026, 2-1 on 14 Sep 2025).
- Deportivo Pasto lost last 5 league matches (Clausura form LLLLL).
- Deportivo Cali away record this season: 2W-2D-5L, but Pasto home record: 6W-2D-2L in Apertura, though Clausura home loss 1-2 vs Águilas Doradas.
- Deportivo Pasto conceded 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDeportivo CaliEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pasto's catastrophic form (5 consecutive losses) combined with Cali's strong H2H record makes a home win unlikely, supporting a double chance for the away side.
- Deportivo Pasto lost last 5 matches in all competitions.
- Deportivo Cali unbeaten in last 3 H2H (2W, 1D).
- Deportivo Pasto failed to win in 6 of last 7 home matches across all competitions (2W, 2D, 3L).
- Deportivo Cali lost only 1 of last 5 away matches in all competitions (2W, 2D, 1L).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Deportivo CaliEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The remarkable H2H pattern of five consecutive half-time draws, combined with both teams' recent half-time results, strongly suggests another draw at the break.
- Deportivo Pasto drew at half-time in 4 of last 5 home matches.
- Deportivo Cali drew at half-time in 3 of last 5 away matches.
- In last 5 H2H, half-time results: D, D, D, D, D (all draws).
- Pasto led at half-time in 33% of matches, Cali in 47%, but H2H pattern is strong.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time is likely, and Cali's superior form could see them win the second half, but the specific HT/FT combo has low probability due to many possible outcomes.
- Deportivo Pasto drew at half-time in 4 of last 5 home matches.
- Deportivo Cali won 2 of last 3 H2H after drawing at half-time in 2 of those.
- Deportivo Cali won 47% of matches when leading at half-time, but only 20% when drawing.
- Pasto lost 5 straight, often after being level or behind at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Deportivo CaliEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cali's strong defense (0.6 GA/15) and Pasto's recent scoring struggles at home point to a low-scoring affair, consistent with recent H2H trends.
- Deportivo Cali conceded only 0.6 goals per game on average in last 15 matches.
- Deportivo Pasto scored 1.4 goals per game on average in last 15, but only 0.8 in last 5 home matches.
- Last 3 H2H meetings: 3-0, 2-1, 1-1 (2 of 3 under 2.5 goals).
- Deportivo Cali's away matches average 2.0 total goals this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cali's defensive solidity and Pasto's attacking inconsistency make it likely that at least one side fails to score, as seen in most recent H2H encounters.
- Deportivo Cali kept clean sheets in 5 of last 8 matches across all competitions.
- Deportivo Pasto failed to score in 2 of last 5 home matches.
- In last 5 H2H, both teams scored in only 1 match.
- Deportivo Cali conceded only 0.6 goals per game in last 15.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cali's excellent defensive record suggests a clean sheet is possible, but Pasto's home scoring ability (1.4 goals per game overall) keeps confidence low.
- Deportivo Cali kept clean sheets in 5 of last 8 matches.
- Deportivo Pasto failed to score in 2 of last 5 home matches.
- Deportivo Cali conceded only 0.6 goals per game in last 15.
- Deportivo Pasto scored only 1.4 goals per game on average in last 15.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDeportivo Pasto not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and H2H history shows consistently few first-half goals, making under 1.5 a strong bet.
- Deportivo Pasto averages 0.9 first-half goals in last 15, but only 0.4 in last 5 home matches.
- Deportivo Cali averages 0.5 first-half goals in last 15, with 0.2 first-half goals conceded.
- In last 5 H2H, first-half goals: 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 (all under 1.5).
- Deportivo Cali led at half-time in 47% of recent matches, but Pasto trailed at half-time in only 20%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While second halves tend to be more open, the overall low-scoring trend and Cali's defense make over 1.5 second-half goals a low-confidence call.
- Deportivo Pasto conceded 1.6 goals per game overall, with many goals coming in second half.
- Deportivo Cali scored 1.4 goals per game, with 0.9 in second half on average.
- Last 3 H2H second-half goals: 3, 1, 0 (mixed).
- Pasto's last 5 matches saw 2+ second-half goals in 3 games.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner rates, and H2H history consistently shows low corner totals, supporting under 9.5 corners.
- Deportivo Pasto averages 4.4 corners per game, Deportivo Cali 4.8.
- Combined average corners in Pasto's matches: 8.8, in Cali's: 9.6.
- Last 5 H2H corner counts: 8, 8, 7, 9, 6 (all under 9.5).
- Pasto's home matches average 8.2 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
High foul rates suggest a physical match, but card data is inconsistent; over 4.5 cards is a borderline call with low confidence.
- Deportivo Pasto averages 3.2 yellow cards per game, Deportivo Cali 2.7.
- Combined average cards: 5.9 per match.
- Last 5 H2H card data unavailable, but both teams have high foul rates (Pasto 10.8, Cali 14.6).
- Pasto received 4+ cards in 3 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 31% vs our 45% estimate suggests value, but the away win is a risky single bet given Pasto's strong home record in Apertura and Cali's inconsistent away form.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L3-0Deportivo CalivDeportivo PastoFeb 1, 2026PRI

L2-1Deportivo CalivDeportivo PastoSep 14, 2025PRI

D1-1Deportivo PastovDeportivo CaliMar 29, 2025PRI

W0-2Deportivo CalivDeportivo PastoSep 3, 2024PRI

W0-1Deportivo CalivDeportivo PastoJun 26, 2024FRI

Deportivo Pasto: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Deportivo Pasto Post season qualification	19	10	4	5	29-25	34	LLLLL
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	20-16	27	LWDWL

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Deportivo Pasto

L1-2Águilas DoradasAug 1PRI

W3-0Bogota FCJul 29COP

L2-3Independiente MedellinJul 25PRI

L0-1Bogota FCJul 22COP

L0-2Deportes TolimaMay 13PRI

L0-1Deportes TolimaMay 9PRI

L3-4JuniorMay 3PRI

L1-2Santa FeApr 23PRI

W3-2JaguaresApr 17PRI

W1-0Deportes TolimaApr 11PRI

D0-0Alianza ValleduparApr 1PRI

L1-2Atletico NacionalMar 29PRI

W2-1Fortaleza FCMar 25PRI

W2-0ChicoMar 18PRI

L2-4Once CaldasMar 13PRI

Deportivo Cali

L0-1Independiente MedellinAug 1PRI

W2-0JaguaresJul 25PRI

W2-0Alianza LimaJul 12FRI

W2-1Real SantanderMay 24COP

W1-0Alianza ValleduparMay 21COP

W5-1PopayanMay 15COP

W2-0BucaramangaMay 11COP

D1-1Deportes TolimaMay 3PRI

W1-0America de CaliApr 25PRI

L0-1ChicoApr 17PRI

D1-1LlanerosApr 12PRI

W2-1JuniorApr 4PRI

W1-0Deportivo PereiraMar 29PRI

L0-1Alianza ValleduparMar 22PRI

D1-1Santa FeMar 19PRI

Squad & Injuries

Deportivo Pasto

26 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Deportivo Cali

32 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders13

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Deportivo Cali

Draw

Under 1.5

No

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Deportivo Cali

Under 0.5

Under 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Deportivo Pasto

Deportivo Cali

Squad & Injuries

Deportivo Pasto

Deportivo Cali