Deportivo Moron4CA Acassuso1

HT 3–1Sun 9 Aug 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Aug 2026, 17:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Deportivo Morón's dominant home form and Acassuso's toothless attack point to a comfortable home win and under 2.5 goals, but bookmakers have already priced these outcomes tightly, offering no value.

The only market with a near-fair price is Morón to lead at halftime (1.95), though the edge is minimal; avoid the handicap, HT/FT, and total goals markets where the odds are stacked against you.

Context

Home record: 8W 3D 0L, 20 goals scored, 6 conceded.
- Kept clean sheets in 5 of 11 home games (45%).
- Only one home defeat in last 15 matches across all competitions.
Away record: 1W 4D 7L, 7 goals scored, 15 conceded.
- Failed to score in 5 of 12 away matches (42%).
- Overall season average: 0.5 goals per game, lowest in the league.
Last 5 H2H: Morón 4W 1D 0L, 11 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- Most recent meeting (Mar 2026): Acassuso 0-3 Morón.
- Morón kept clean sheets in 3 of those 5 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Deportivo Moron

1.45fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Deportivo Moron are unbeaten at home this season (8W 3D) while CA Acassuso have only 1 away win all season, making a home win highly probable.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Deportivo Moron or Draw

1.07fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 93%

−8.0ppshort

Deportivo Moron's unbeaten home record and CA Acassuso's poor away form make the double chance a very safe option.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Deportivo Moron

1.96fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 51%

0.0ppshort

Deportivo Moron average 0.7 first-half goals and lead at HT in 40% of matches, while CA Acassuso trail at HT in 27% of matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo Moron's dominant home form and strong H2H record against a struggling CA Acassuso side with poor away results make a home win highly likely.
- Deportivo Moron are unbeaten at home this season: 8 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses in 11 home matches, scoring 20 and conceding only 6.
- CA Acassuso have a poor away record: 1 win, 4 draws, 7 losses in 12 away matches, scoring 7 and conceding 15.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Deportivo Moron have 4 wins and 1 draw, including a 3-0 away win in the most recent encounter (March 2026).
- Deportivo Moron average 1.5 goals per match overall, while CA Acassuso average only 0.5 goals per match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDeportivo MoronEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Deportivo Moron's unbeaten home record and CA Acassuso's poor away form, the double chance of home win or draw offers very high safety.
- Deportivo Moron have not lost at home this season (8W 3D 0L).
- CA Acassuso have only 1 away win all season.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, CA Acassuso have never won (0W 1D 4L).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDeportivo Moron or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Deportivo Moron's tendency to start strong and CA Acassuso's slow starts suggest the home side could lead at the break.
- Deportivo Moron lead at halftime in 40% of their matches overall.
- CA Acassuso trail at halftime in 27% of their matches.
- In the most recent H2H, Deportivo Moron led 1-0 at halftime away from home.
- Deportivo Moron average 0.7 first-half goals per match, while CA Acassuso average 0.3.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDeportivo MoronEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not a frequent occurrence, Deportivo Moron's ability to start well and CA Acassuso's vulnerability could lead to a home HT/FT double.
- Deportivo Moron have led at halftime and won the match in 4 of their last 15 matches.
- CA Acassuso have trailed at halftime and lost the match in 4 of their last 15 matches.
- In the most recent H2H, Deportivo Moron led at halftime and won the match.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDeportivo Moron / Deportivo MoronEstimated chance40%

Goals1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CA Acassuso's low scoring output and Deportivo Moron's solid home defense suggest a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 goals likely.
- Deportivo Moron's home matches average 2.36 total goals (20 scored, 6 conceded in 11 games).
- CA Acassuso's away matches average 1.83 total goals (7 scored, 15 conceded in 12 games).
- CA Acassuso have scored only 0.5 goals per match overall and 0.58 per away match.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 out of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo Moron's strong home defense and CA Acassuso's attacking struggles make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Deportivo Moron have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 home matches this season.
- CA Acassuso have failed to score in 8 of their 22 matches overall (36%).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Deportivo Moron kept 3 clean sheets against CA Acassuso.
- CA Acassuso average only 0.5 goals per match overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo Moron's solid home defense and CA Acassuso's low away scoring rate support a home clean sheet.
- Deportivo Moron have kept a clean sheet in 5 of 11 home matches (45%).
- CA Acassuso have failed to score in 5 of 12 away matches (42%).
- In the most recent H2H (March 2026), Deportivo Moron won 3-0 away, keeping a clean sheet.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCA Acassuso not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo Moron's consistent home scoring, combined with CA Acassuso's leaky away defense, suggests the home side can score at least twice.
- Deportivo Moron average 1.82 goals per home match (20 goals in 11 games).
- They have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their 11 home matches.
- CA Acassuso concede 1.25 goals per away match on average.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonDeportivo Moron over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CA Acassuso's poor away scoring record against a strong home defense makes it likely they will not score.
- CA Acassuso average only 0.58 goals per away match (7 goals in 12 games).
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 away matches.
- Deportivo Moron concede only 0.55 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostCA Acassuso under 0.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and H2H history shows few early goals, making under 1.5 first-half goals probable.
- Deportivo Moron average 0.7 first-half goals per match, conceding 0.3.
- CA Acassuso average 0.3 first-half goals per match, conceding 0.3.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, only 1 match had over 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of corner stats, a conservative under is assumed based on the likely low-tempo nature of the match, but confidence is low due to missing data.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Primera Nacional matches often have moderate corner counts, but without specific data, this is a low-confidence estimate.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The handicap line is priced efficiently with no edge; our estimated probability of a home win by 2+ goals is not high enough to justify the risk.

Prediction history

Deportivo Moron: Under 2.5 goals has been unreliable recently

Deportivo Moron's Under 2.5 goals projections have fulfilled in only 2 of 6 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 68%, but the actual fulfilment rate is just 33%, well below the expected 4.1 fulfilled predictions. Home matches have seen 1 fulfilment in 3 attempts, while away matches also show 1 in 3, indicating no location-based improvement.

Recent evidence for Deportivo Moron6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Primera Nacional